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JTA66

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2020 OBS Thread

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I finally made up some of the rain deficit that I had in September, picking up 2.02" between 9/27 - 9/30, giving me 2.84" for the month. Definitely feeling like fall out there now.  After a low of 56 this morning and a high of 66, currently 65 and partly cloudy with dp a comfortable 45.

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Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

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Some October climate stats for Western Chester County PA of note since 2010 the month has averaged only 1.3 degrees above the 54.0 degree monthly average.  Additionally, 2 of the last 10 Octobers (2011 and 2015) have actually averaged below normal temperatures....while 9 of the last 20 have featured below normal temperatures.

Some OCT Climate facts & figures for Western Chester County PA:

Highest temp - 94 (10/6/1900 and 10/5/1941)

Lowest temp - 17 (10/28/1936)

Highest min temp - 73 (10/5/1898)

Lowest max temp - 35 (10/30/1925)

Average October Temperature - 1894 to 1983 - 54.2 degrees

Average October Temperature - 1983 thru 2019 - 54.0 degrees

Average date of the 1st Freeze of the HDD season:

1894 to 1982 - 10/14

Since 1983 - 10/23

Earliest Freeze - September 20, 1956

Latest Freeze - November 12, 2005

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

Climate society has it in the moderate range already, just to confuse you a little bit more.

 

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

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cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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While today's splits both in Western Chester County (60.1/45.1) and down the shore in Sea Isle City NJ (67.5/49.1) were well below normal they were nowhere near as chilly as today just 5 years ago back in 2015...when we stayed in the 40's all day in Chesco with a high of only 49.4 and 0.40" of rain.

Backyard.20201003_172410780.jpg

SicHi.20201003_172430707.jpg

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A new weather tidbit for Western Chester County PA...thanks for all of the emails!! I will try to share more of these unique Western Chester County PA stats more often - also thanks for the feedback on the website http://www.chescowx.com !! I am in the process of upgrading it's appearance and functionality....but my full time job gets in the way of getting this done more quickly. No doubt these updates should help make it more phone friendly... as I know this is a current shortcoming of the current site.

Some interesting analysis regarding Octobers by decade below

Looking at Octobers by decade since the 1890's -  3 of the last 5 decades are the coldest October decades on record the top 5 coldest are below:

  • 1970's (52.5) / 1980's (52.6) / 1960's (53.3) / 1920's (53.3) / 1990's (53.4)

Of the top 5 warmest October decades - 4 of those decades occurred before 1960

  • 1910's (56.7) / 1940's (55.4) / 2010's (55.3) / 1900's (54.9) / 1950's (54.4)

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On 10/3/2020 at 10:02 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hearing and seeing conflicting data on ENSO. ENSO site says neutral or slight Nina. Accuwx says moderate Nina. Cosgrove says nowhere near Nina. Anyone have factual data on which phase ENSO is in currently and where it may be headed over the next 5-6 months? Thanks.

Here’s the latest:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

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