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forkyfork

sunday severe threat 8/2

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6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

If ya hadn't noticed this is kind of a bad place to have a tornado. Too many trees, too many overhead utility lines and an awful lot of dumb people that would go out to watch. I dunno, maybe your town is different...

I’m not rooting for tornadoes or damage, but as a weather enthusiast it’s interesting. We have zero control over it anyway.

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Every recent tornado watch here has been a major bust. Hopefully this one isn’t as disappointing. 

Speak for yourself!  I don't want any tornado near me! 

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6 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Who knows. We’ll see. Currently  SBCAPE at 4000 and SBLI at -7. 

Truly feels like a Summer day in FL today.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Truly feels like a Summer day in FL today.

 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Truly feels like a Summer day in FL today.

Dew of 78 at ISP, 79 here

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Yikes! This is about as good (bad) as it gets for the region. The lapse rates are still meager and I'd like to see the winds back a little bit in the lower levels, but otherwise...

OKX.thumb.PNG.8ec685800ad1ab94413630d2591a9c36.PNG

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Liking the potential to rip a line through NJ and maybe e se NYS by 7PM ish.  UNSURE if it can happen.  Has to develop very fast by 615PM.  

Think most favorable area for SVR in 8PM-midnight slot  in our area is I78-I95 and maybe CT.  

 

I see a boundary in e PA with drier air on sw wind with decent sly flow ahead. 

Consider this very quick and potentially fraught with error. Low  confidence. 514P

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Thunderstorms are erupting in NE PA West of Allentown.

With the exception of the big cell just east of Pottsville there is nothing much to speak of in eastern PA right now.  Visible satellite confirms that.  We had plenty of towering CU and some showers a couple of hours ago but that has mainly cleared out.

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21 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

With the exception of the big cell just east of Pottsville there is nothing much to speak of in eastern PA right now.  Visible satellite confirms that.  We had plenty of towering CU and some showers a couple of hours ago but that has mainly cleared out.

Since my last post there has been new convective development to the south of the cell now near Hazleton.  Now there is a line swinging towards the East towards the west side of Allentown and places north of there.  Radar shows this nicely.  Very rapidly evolving development this evening out here.

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The dew point front that Walt referred to earlier looks to run from about the Harrisburg area on up to the area west of Scranton.  In any case that line to my north and west is definitely going to make things interesting in NW NJ and SE NY this evening.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1381
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020

   Areas affected...Western New England and Northern Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 410...

   Valid 022245Z - 030045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 410 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage has remained isolated across WW 410. This
   trend is expected to continue this evening. Where storms can mature,
   such as near the NY/MA/CT border, damaging wind gusts and a tornado
   or two will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage within WW 410 has remained quite
   isolated. With the strongest forcing for ascent north of the
   Canadian border, this is not likely to change significantly this
   evening. A cluster of storms has developed within the last hour and
   a half near the NY/MA/CT border vicinity. One of those storms in
   northwestern CT has exhibited persistent mid-level rotation and a
   brief TDS around 6 PM EDT. These storms exist within a baroclinic
   zone where effective SRH is maximized. While poor low-level lapse
   rates may hinder stronger low-level rotation, any mature supercell
   that enters this favorable environment would still be capable of
   producing a tornado. Farther north, cumulus have continued to slowly
   deepen in the western Adirondacks. There is remaining favorable
   environment within far northeaster NY near the international border.
   While buoyancy is somewhat more limited that far north, low-level
   winds remain slightly backed. Overall, storm coverage is expected to
   remain isolated with potential for damaging wind gusts and a tornado
   or two where storms can develop and mature. The threat is expected
   to diminish by 9-10 PM EDT.

 

 

20FFD644-4E26-471D-8A6C-7838746DC7B4.gif

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BUST... maybe too much dry air swept in aloft after the morning FF vicinity KRDG, or maybe too much shear aloft and/or not enough surface convergence on the weak front moving into our area... not much happened. Attaching a graphic of storm reports...the morning stuff in se PA, the late day in Litchfield County. Modeling had hints of problems, especially afternoon but even there it underplayed the 0.1-1" of repetitive late day showers, thunderstorms that occurred in far eastern PA into extreme nw NJ.

Later this morning, I'll add the cumulative rainfall for yesterday. Note: NWS in some areas does not use most weather underground reports (unofficial) but 4-7" occurred in the FF area near RDG-Kutztown from multiple sources. A fire is a fire, no matter what platform/person sees it, via crowd sourcing, especially multiple independent sources. 

Screen_Shot_2020-08-03_at_5_06.57_AM.png

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