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General severe weather discussion


Quincy
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Always found these interesting.

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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
938 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

OKZ009-014>017-150800-
/O.EXT.KOUN.HW.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210515T0800Z/
Ellis-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-
Including the cities of Shattuck, Arnett, Gage, Fargo, Cheyenne,
Hammon, Seiling, Vici, Taloga, Leedey, Weatherford, Clinton,
Watonga, Geary, and Okeene
938 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds could gust to near 60 mph late this evening
  and overnight as approaching storms dissipate.

* WHERE...West-central Oklahoma.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power
  lines, resulting in power outages. Travel could be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

 

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MD 625 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0625
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

   Areas affected...southeast Colorado through southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 175...

   Valid 152317Z - 160015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 175 continues.

   SUMMARY...A relatively small window will exist through mid evening
   for brief isolated tornadoes from a portion of southeast Colorado
   through southwest Kansas.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a stationary boundary extends
   through southwest Kansas into southeast Colorado. Dewpoints are
   generally in the upper 50s to around 60 F in vicinity of this
   boundary contributing to somewhat lower LCLs and up to 2000 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Storms will continue spreading eastward off the higher
   terrain, and other storms may initiate on the boundary. Effective
   bulk shear around 35 kt will promote both multicell and marginal
   supercell structures, and some increase in 0-2 km hodograph size
   will occur as the low-level jet strengthens this evening. The
   primary threat for a few brief tornadoes is expected to occur as
   storms develop along or move east and interact with the boundary
   where low-level vorticity will be maximized.

   ..Dial.. 05/15/2021
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Water rescues ongoing in Saline County here in KS. Just north of there in Bennington a weather station has measured 8" of rain since midnight. While we've been having a few storms every night with large hail the flooding is starting to steal the show. More rain forecast every day like this too until at least Friday.

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1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I've never seen the Day 3 outlook feature a Moderate risk of Flooding that does NOT feature a Tropical Cyclone!



The WPC QPF is going crazy! :yikes:
 

How about 3 day Flash Flood watch

Dallas

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH   
WEDNESDAY MORNING...  

This might need it's own thread

more rainfall after the 3 day map you posted

2015 redux?

Lake Lewisville Dam problems if Denton County gets hit bad??

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6 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

How about 3 day Flash Flood watch

Dallas

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH   
WEDNESDAY MORNING...  

This might need it's own thread

more rainfall after the 3 day map you posted

2015 redux?

Lake Lewisville Dam problems if Denton County gets hit bad??

'm under a Flood Watch until at least Wednesday as well . . .

I've been thinking about 2015 similarities, except there is no Tropical Storm!

Here is the Days 1-7 QPF, it's just absolutely crazy amounts expected!
p168idbe84e04b60c366f.gif

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3 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Trinity river will be one to watch. If DFW gets flooding rains,  the area around the Trinity river typically will have big problems. 

will depend on meso features of course and luck with overlapping events

but it Looks like a mini train is setting up for Dallas county and SE Metro for round 1

 

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43 minutes ago, weatherextreme said:

Trinity river will be one to watch. If DFW gets flooding rains,  the area around the Trinity river typically will have big problems. 

started a new thread about heavy rain/flooding so this thread can focus on tornadoes, hail, wind, etc

 

 

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Tornado Warning
TXC217-161845-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0017.210516T1817Z-210516T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
117 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Hill County in central Texas...

* Until 145 PM CDT.

* At 116 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Itasca, or 11 miles north of Hillsboro, moving
  northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  north central Hill County.

This includes Interstate 35W between mile markers 6 and 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3212 9715 3219 9722 3225 9715 3226 9710
      3226 9709 3217 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 226DEG 12KT 3217 9715

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

92
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Tornado Warning
TXC139-251-161915-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0018.210516T1837Z-210516T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Johnson County in north central Texas...
  West central Ellis County in north central Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 136 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Grandview, or 12 miles southeast of Alvarado,
  moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Maypearl around 155 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 9705 3222 9706 3226 9709 3225 9716
      3235 9714 3237 9700 3230 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 215DEG 15KT 3225 9709

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

92
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Oh my...

Tornado Warning
TXC113-161945-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 245 PM CDT.

* At 208 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near University Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Garland around 225 PM CDT.
  Richardson around 230 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Buckingham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9664 3285 9677 3289 9682 3299 9680
      3299 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 208DEG 25KT 3289 9677

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

92
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22 minutes ago, Powerball said:

BTW, the Byron Nelson (PGA Tournament) is currently taking place in McKinney, TX. 

Not sure if there's a delay though. 

They were playing up until now, but now play has been suspended.

Good news is that they're in the final round and the Tornado Warning has been cancelled. 

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SPC has upgraded much of the DFW Metroplex to a Slight Risk, with a 5% chance of a tornado...

img.png

img.png

   SPC AC 161951

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are once again expected across
   portions of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and
   evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts are the most likely risks.

   Tornado probabilities have been increased to 5%/Slight Risk in parts
   of north-central Texas, including the DFW metro area. Earlier this
   afternoon, a few weak/brief circulations were noted on KFWS radar
   along with reported brief touchdowns with the most organized storm
   now in Ellis County. Current radar imagery continues to suggest some
   potential for this activity to continue for a few hours. TDFW and
   TDAL VWP data continue to show semi-enlarged low-level hodographs. A
   couple storms, should they organize, west/south of the metro area
   may see similar potential for a brief/weak tornado given some
   heating ahead of that activity.

   Elsewhere, the outlook remains unchanged.
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54 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Oh my...

Tornado Warning
TXC113-161945-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0019.210516T1908Z-210516T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
208 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  North central Dallas County in north central Texas...

I went out to take a look, everything was rain-wrapped obviously and couldn't see anything lol, but was worth a shot

Not sure if we ever had a touchdown, but the path of the rotation would have taken it right over my old neighborhood (which also got on 10/20/19)

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000
NWUS54 KFWD 162004
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     TORNADO          5 WNW TROY              31.23N 97.38W
05/16/2021                   BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HOMES SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A
            BRIEF TORNADO ALONG WILLOW GROVE RD BETWEEN
            MOODY RD AND FRANKLIN RD. SOME OUTBUILDINGS
            AND CHICKEN COOPS DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$
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Just now, BrandonC_TX said:

Apparently there was "significant tree damage" at Goar Park in University Park according to NWS storm reports. Also a home got damaged on Northhaven Road across from North Haven Gardens, which was an area hit hard back on October 20, 2019.

Although the cell was tornado warned, it seems they're calling it high winds for now. 

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