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COVID-19 Talk

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

I don't see how you or anyone can be confident in IFR numbers right now when Fauci and basically all scientists out there are saying that "we don't know." 

I can see the trends in the data in the papers coming out now. There have been solid studies from Germany, Iceland, and China on this topic. Even your vaunted CDC CFR numbers have been steadily moving downwards. The next update will definitely be even lower. But CFR is totally useless right now.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

But even in hard-hit NYC they are nowhere near regional capacity. Meanwhile, many people with cancer, kidney disease, and other very serious illnesses can't get treatment and/r have bene laid off and lost their coverage.

And I have zero faith the political leaders have the best info or have processed it all yet when making decisions. This entire pandemic has become totally politicized now, which is a shame but to be expected.

Oh I have a surgery that is delayed. It definitely sucks. I'm terrified for my dad should he need a heart stint.

 

But I don't think that gets any better opening up the country again.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I can see the trends in the data in the papers coming out now. There have been solid studies from Germany, Iceland, and China on this topic. Even your vaunted CDC CFR numbers have been steadily moving downwards. The next update will definitely be even lower. But CFR is totally useless right now.

We'll figure the rates out looking back after this is all said and done. Someone posted the Iceland study a few days ago but their CFR's are going up. Germany's have gone up too. Both of those countries have sentinel testing, which is awesome. Both will be able to have short lockdowns and come back to work early because they have a massive testing infrastructure. Good on them. 

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8 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

No it hasn't been 17% unless you're over 85 - read the link I posted which has the most recent information. 

You're welcome to stay at home until kingdom come under your TP bunker.. no problem from me!

Well I’m not “welcome to”, actually I’ve been ordered to.  And judging by the fact that you’re in this subforum, so have you.  
 

 

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Right, of course. It all depends on how big that iceberg is.

Either way though, at this point "rates" are kind of moot, real rates will be determined when this is all said and done. At this point it's raw numbers.

The raw numbers are, a month into lockdown, 2k people a day are still dying. Imagine what those numbers would be with things opened back up for busines.

So I am not seeing things open back up for at least another month, possibly longer, and it seems most of the general public is fine with that and supports it. Myself included.

 

Thankfully.

Many of those dying are elderly with major underlying complications. Look at the Italy data. The vast majority of those who died were very old and had 2+ major comorbidities. This disease is not any more dangerous for healthy people under 40 than something like swine flu.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Many of those dying are elderly with major underlying complications. Look at the Italy data. The vast majority of those who died were very old and had 2+ major comorbidities. This disease is not any more dangerous for healthy people under 40 than something like swine flu.

The elderly with underlying conditions matter.

My dad matters. And the more we pack hospitals, and the less access we all have to hospitals when they are slammed by covid patients, the worse this gets for all of us.

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Oh I have a surgery that is delayed. It definitely sucks. I'm terrified for my dad should he need a heart stint.

 

But I don't think that gets any better opening up the country again.

So why can't you simply quarantine yourself until a vaccine is available and the rest of us go back to work?

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Well I’m not “welcome to”, actually I’ve been ordered to.  And judging by the fact that you’re in this subforum, so have you.  
 

 

I think some people feel like debating here and other places means they'll somehow be allowed to go outside and go to BBQs and movie theatres and restaurants again.

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4 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Right, of course. It all depends on how big that iceberg is.

Either way though, at this point "rates" are kind of moot, real rates will be determined when this is all said and done. At this point it's raw numbers.

The raw numbers are, a month into lockdown, 2k people a day are still dying. Imagine what those numbers would be with things opened back up for busines.

So I am not seeing things open back up for at least another month, possibly longer, and it seems most of the general public is fine with that and supports it. Myself included.

 

Thankfully.

Now I agree with pretty much all of this.  I don’t see things starting to open up in our area until around June 1 - and even then it will be a gradual process.  

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Just now, PhineasC said:

So why can't you simply quarantine yourself until a vaccine is available and the rest of us go back to work?

Because public health dictates that this is a societal problem and not an individual one.

 

The more people pack hospitals with coronavirus, the more it easily spreads among our healthcare workers, the less PPE we have, the more deaths we have, the more closures we need again in the future.

 

We're in this together for better or worse.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

So why can't you simply quarantine yourself until a vaccine is available and the rest of us go back to work?

That’s just not how it works.  Too high a percentage of our population is old or has comorbidity.   It isn’t feasible to do that.  

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Just now, supernovasky said:

The elderly with underlying conditions matter.

My dad matters. And the more we pack hospitals, and the less access we all have to hospitals when they are slammed by covid patients, the worse this gets for all of us.

This is not a good argument for shutting down the entire planet. The common cold frequently kills this population. The flu ravages them every single year. Thousands upon thousands of deaths. I suspect most 80 year olds don't want the earth shut down and people's lives ruined to ensure they get a few more months of life locked in their houses...

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2 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I think some people feel like debating here and other places means they'll somehow be allowed to go outside and go to BBQs and movie theatres and restaurants again.

These lockdowns are completely unprecedented in world history. It's amazing they have worked as much as they have. Just because you are scared and want to stay home for a few years doesn't mean most people want that or it should be mandated by law.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This is not a good argument for shutting down the entire planet. The common cold frequently kills this population. The flu ravages them every single year. Thousands upon thousands of deaths. I suspect most 80 year olds don't want the earth shut down and people's lives ruined to ensure they get a few more months of life locked in their houses...

This isn’t the flu.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Many of those dying are elderly with major underlying complications. Look at the Italy data. The vast majority of those who died were very old and had 2+ major comorbidities. This disease is not any more dangerous for healthy people under 40 than something like swine flu.

What is not easily discernible from the data is how many people dying from Covid would have been likely to die from another disease within say a 12 month time period.  This does not diminish the lives of these individuals, but it would have an effect on how the rest of us go about our lives.  We have to be careful not to forget that there is a circle of life component to all of these data points.  We all have to go sometime.  And those of us over 65 years of age with underlying conditions are going to be at the top of nature’s list.  It is not a fun topic to discuss, but these are challenging times.  

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

These lockdowns are completely unprecedented in world history. It's amazing they have worked as much as they have. Just because you are scared and want to stay home for a few years doesn't mean most people want that or it should be mandated by law.

The vast majority of people support staying home for the time being, and it’s currently the law, and science and public health support it.

I know you want to get out. We all do. But it’s not going to happen when there is a disease spreading that kills 2k a day while under lockdown.


Not until we can mitigate.

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

That’s just not how it works.  Too high a percentage of our population is old or has comorbidity.   It isn’t feasible to do that.  

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

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thanks for keeping the discussion civil despite disagreements. carry on :) 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

The IFR of the flu is not 0.2%, and the IFR of this disease, for as well as we know, is well above 0.2%.

The flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

We'll stay locked down until we can effectively mitigate, I wager. I trust public health and the scientists behind it.

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

The vast majority of people support staying home for the time being, and it’s currently the law, and science and public health support it.

I know you want to get out. We all do. But it’s not going to happen when there is a disease spreading that kills 2k a day while under lockdown.

 

I am very confident you are going to see public opinion on this swing wildly towards opening in the next two weeks as layoffs accelerate and savings run dry...

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New Jersey just reported 350 deaths... :-/

 

I have a feeling we're heading for another 2k+ day. Many states haven't reported yet.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

If the IFR ends up around 0.2%, it is in terms of deadliness.

Of course, that's if we believe the flu number.  For all of the discussion about coding COVID deaths, influenza has the same problem. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It has to work. We can't stay locked down until we get a vaccine and/or testing like South Korea (which will never work here). At some point we will need to start to reopen and accept some deaths and hope the IFR is more like 0.2%. Otherwise many, many more will die from the economic and social impacts of the lockdown. All we are ding is punting the football while our hose burns down.

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I am very confident you are going to see public opinion on this swing wildly towards opening in the next two weeks as layoffs accelerate and savings run dry...

We'll see. Pretty sure people being asked that question are keeping that in mind.

It's not like people will just return to economic activity even if things are opened right now. Pandemics suck. They have sucked since the beginning of time. It's why when you think of "biblical", plagues and pandemics come up.

 

We're going to have to all suffer together for a while to save lives and keep us as a society healthy. We'll rebuild.

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Just now, supernovasky said:

We'll stay locked down until we can effectively mitigate, I wager. I trust public health and the scientists behind it.

That could be 18-24 months away. There is zero chance of that, and you shouldn't hope for it. I haven't heard experts like Fauci calling for that either. You'll much prefer the coronavirus deaths if we run out of food and there are widespread riots with 30%+ unemployment...

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

New Jersey just reported 350 deaths... :-/

 

I have a feeling we're heading for another 2k+ day. Many states haven't reported yet.

It seems clear to me you are spending too much time deep into out-of-context stats and letting them eat away at you. You should read some flu stats for the past 50 years...

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

biggest reason: supplies and staff. there are not enough test kits. there are not enough people to give the tests. there are not enough people, or labs, to run the tests. 

its a logistic nightmare that we are ridiculously behind the ball on that trying to play catch up will prove to be impossible

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Why can't we scale up testing like South Korea?  We can send and army halfway around the world at the drop of a hat.  We surely can ramp up testing and contact tracing, return mostly to normal, and wait for the vaccine.  That seems to me like the best option.

So here's the problem:

 

We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over.

 

That + massive supply chain problems in  procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

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