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John1122

Leap Days Clipper Parade: February 26th-29th 2020

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3 minutes ago, Runman292 said:

I’ve been staying over at my parents’ place in southern Campbell county, and all we got were patches of a very light dusting.

Flow snow is fickle. Elevation helped a lot last night too. 

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12z Euro looked a bit more "robust" with the systems beginning tomorrow afternoon into Saturday.   Thought 12z had a little bit of an uptick on a couple of models.  Nothing major, but a trend worth watching.

Got .5-.75" this AM in west Kingsport.  Woke up and looked out the window and thought fog had rolled in.  +SN was pouring down.  Busses got caught in route.  Rest of Kingsport wasn't as bad with just a light dusting.  West of I-26 got some nice snow for about 20 mins.  Hardest I have seen it snow in a long time.   It was ripping.

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Upper Plateau and points north of I-40 look good for the two waves coming through from Friday morning through Friday night. Diurnal timing will play a role with accumulation. Plateau should have no problem accumulating, temps below freezing many hours. Valley I-40 north will battle temps more. Knoxvegas maybe. Morristown I'd think a little. TRI good. 

Nashvegas is the real craps table. I'm afraid Huntsville and Chattanooga are relegated to the cheering section again. Maybe snow showers, but I really doubt stick. My head is back to default fade KCHA. My heart is still stuck on 8 Feb.

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 CMC did best for my area with this last snowfall. Others underforecasted amounts, per usual. Lee County should have been included in the wwa as should we this next go around as should several others with it imo. 

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On the 00z HRRR 700-500mb Lapse rates look to be -7 to -8 in the area into tomorrow. Not absolutely unstable like -10 or more but enough to be considered conditionally unstable. HRRR is .5 to 2 inches over a good part of the Eastern Rim and other areas eastward. The 3+ lollipop shows up in western Cumberland County. The mountains go for 4-8 inches.  

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MRX actually added my area to the WWA but for elevations higher than me. Holding at 31 degrees up from 25 as the atmosphere tries to saturate. The ground is nicely frozen after being sub freezing for the last 12 hours. Just need to see the moisture actually reach the surface. 

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2 minutes ago, bearman said:

Looking at MRX radar is not encouraging right now.

Looks like decent returns in middle Tennessee, just not sure of the ground truth to them right now. They should be in Crossville next update. They are moving almost due East so may he good if they don't get downsloped off the Plateau and temps cooperate in the central valley. 

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The last two systems illustrate the importance of cold air and surface, I know kind of duh, but these last two systems really accentuate it. I'll add cold air in place vs JIT junk.

I observed first flakes in Downtown Chattanooga around 8:30 Eastern, but not doing much attm. Actually I observed driver flakes on the way in too, but that's another topic...

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Big factors here are temps and flake size. Drove out to do a run at Frozen head. Snow was making it down to about 1800' around 830 AM:

IMG_0819

 

Hit pixie dust about 1600' 

Finally hit some better snow, as I drove back home, but flake size makes the difference bewteen this:

IMG_0820

 

 

Or this:

giphy.gif

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