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DanLarsen34

Early February Severe Threat

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Wanted to start a thread on this. Looks like we are entering an active week for severe weather next week, the week of February 3.

 

SPC has 15% outlook areas for Days 5 (Tuesday), 6 (Wednesday), and 7 (Thursday) starting along the Arklatex on Tuesday, then moving into the Gulf states on Wednesday and Thursday. Could be an active week! 

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ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1028 AM CST WED FEB 05 2020  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST  
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 051628Z - 051800Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN  
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION INITIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR  
DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS  
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.  
  
DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST AL TO A WEAK  
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN LA WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND  
CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEAST TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT  
REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS  
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LA. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY A RECENT  
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHWEST LA  
THROUGH EASTERN TX. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESPOND  
AND BECOME COUPLED WITH THE EXIT UPPER JET REGION, AND IS FORECAST  
TO INCREASE TO 50+ KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM LAKE  
CHARLES ALREADY SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 2500 J/KG MUCAPE IN  
WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD SOON BECOME SURFACE BASED AND ORGANIZE AS  
SUPERCELLS AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOW 70S F. THE STORMS  
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO MS THIS AFTERNOON. THE  
STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT 50+ KT EFFECTIVE  
BULK SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH LARGEST  
HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED EAST OF THE NORTHEAST MIGRATING SURFACE LOW.  

  • Thanks 1

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
207 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
  
* UNTIL 300 PM CST.  
      
* AT 207 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR SONTAG, OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKHAVEN,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  OMA AROUND 215 PM CST.  
  ROCKPORT AROUND 220 PM CST.  
  UNION AND SHIVERS AROUND 230 PM CST.  
  PINOLA AROUND 235 PM CST.  
  MENDENHALL AROUND 245 PM CST.  
  MAGEE AND SANATORIUM AROUND 250 PM CST.  
  MARTINVILLE AROUND 255 PM CST.  
  

First tor warned storm of this afternoon episode

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6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Anything more on this? Not too much talk

It passed through a very rural area before lifting.

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This warning is for area east of Yazoo City MS, with the possible tornado near I-55.

--

At 404 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Pickens, or 16 miles southwest of Durant, moving northeast at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
403 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020  
  
MSC163-052215-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200205T2215Z/  
YAZOO MS-  
403 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN YAZOO COUNTY...  
          
AT 402 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED NEAR VAUGHAN, OR 16 MILES NORTH OF CANTON, MOVING EAST AT 45  
MPH.  
  
THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY   
         BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES   
         WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
         BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION   
         IS POSSIBLE.  

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9 minutes ago, Chinook said:

This warning is for area east of Yazoo City MS, with the possible tornado near I-55.

--

At 404 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Pickens, or 16 miles southwest of Durant, moving northeast at 50 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

Pickens is a relatively small town in size, the tornado either passed VERY close to them or directly over them. 

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Kosciusko under the gun in the present warning for PDS tornado.  If this cell continues ne Starkville and Mississippi State could be threatened within the hour.

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Not much discussion on this episode in the TN valley forum except for NRGJeff comments.....
Never is anywhere but here. Most places other then this forum could care less unless it's snow or a tornado hits their house.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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Just now, SmokeEater said:

Never is anywhere but here. Most places other then this forum could care less unless it's snow or a tornado hits their house.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

Lol exactly...clippers get more discussion.

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