mappy Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Haven't been paying enough attention it seems, that caught me by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 There's a few areas on radar I'm watching. I think I'll be just a smidge too far north and west here in the Hanover/Severn area. But Charles County, MD looks interesting right now. ETA: Velocity scans have that typical "spin up" kind of look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Cross-posting: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Delaware Eastern Maryland Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 Little notch maybe near ADW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Little notch maybe near ADW IMO, the two areas worth watching for Delmarva are the cell just north of Patuxent NAS and the other near Annapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2020 Author Share Posted November 30, 2020 I actually heard thunder as that stuff passed by. I'll consider that a win on November 30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I actually heard thunder as that stuff passed by. I'll consider that a win on November 30. same here. would have been even more interesting with more sfc heating.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 tornado warning for cecil county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 New TOR coming for Cecil shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: New TOR coming for Cecil shortly. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 250 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 315 PM EST. * AT 250 PM EST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HOLLYWOOD BEACH, OR 10 MILES WEST OF MIDDLETOWN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FOR THOSE IN THE DIRECT PATH OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN, FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND WINDOWS MAY OCCUR. MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BOHEMIAS MILLS AROUND 255 PM EST. BRANTWOOD AROUND 300 PM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CHESAPEAKE CITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Possible debris ball on the Delmarva storm observed by DOX just now. New TOR from PHL is observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 So... December severe then Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Most recent guidance from several deterministic models suggests some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast D4/Friday and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Saturday. These models forecast a maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving through those regions. However, previous runs do not show a mature system, with most favoring a weaker, more progressive evolution. Additionally, the ECMWF, which has shown more run-to-run consistency, is forecasting mature low over the Southwest/northern Mexico which slowly drifts eastward toward the southern Plains during the weekend. All of these factor lead to a low forecast confidence for the weekend. Even with these differences, mostly stable conditions appear likely beginning D6/Sunday and continuing through early next week. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I was in Abingdon right before that warning spun up and it was hard to see anything, Laurel Bush Road was getting like Bush River at times. Reminiscent of driving through a summertime gully washer. A couple of flashes and thunder too! Impressive for the last day of November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 a quick FYI for our severe friends that the HRRR is now run to 48 hours 4x per day, starting this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 This and the verified tornado in Montgomery County, PA will verify the tornado watch box. Good job NWS / SPC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 The 18z NAM at range (FWIW) has some crazy 925mb and 850mb winds depicted for the Christmas Eve system. Has 925mb winds over the Bay of like 75kts around 0z that night. Big swath of near 100kt winds at the 850mb level at 3z that night as well (over the Bay again). But the entire area at one point or another gets very strong winds not very far off the surface (few thousand feet). That same NAM run has a really well defined line with the front...would think that with the strong storm system, at least some of those winds could be brought down to the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 16 hours ago, Kmlwx said: The 18z NAM at range (FWIW) has some crazy 925mb and 850mb winds depicted for the Christmas Eve system. Has 925mb winds over the Bay of like 75kts around 0z that night. Big swath of near 100kt winds at the 850mb level at 3z that night as well (over the Bay again). But the entire area at one point or another gets very strong winds not very far off the surface (few thousand feet). That same NAM run has a really well defined line with the front...would think that with the strong storm system, at least some of those winds could be brought down to the surface. Over/under on a surprise watch box? I'm going 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 22, 2020 Author Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Over/under on a surprise watch box? I'm going 40%. Best chances for the Wakefield WFO area. Maybe Southern Maryland and PG/AACo sneak in. Wonder if LWX will do the huge polygons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 yeah its CWG... but they do mention slight chance of a TOR for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 It's definitely worth watching Christmas Eve with likely intense shear profiles and forcing, but right now, it just doesn't look like we're going to be able to squeeze out any sfc-based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 There is no strong inversion on this sounding near DC as per the 00z NAM as seen below. This should allow for there to be a greater chance of the strong winds at 850mb to be able to mix down. The squall line as predicted by the NAM should further help to mix down the winds from the LLJ. The second image below shows the predicted 850mb winds Lastly, there is PVA present so I am by no means in expert but that could be a source to lift up the air parcels absent CAPE which is maybe why the NAM is forecasting a squall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 9 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: There is no strong inversion on this sounding near DC as per the 00z NAM as seen below. This should allow for there to be a greater chance of the strong winds at 850mb to be able to mix down. The squall line as predicted by the NAM should further help to mix down the winds from the LLJ. The second image below shows the predicted 850mb winds Lastly, there is PVA present so I am by no means in expert but that could be a source to lift up the air parcels absent CAPE which is maybe why the NAM is forecasting a squall line? You're absolutely correct about the very strong winds above the surface and the intense forcing that will be present. But that sounding is not one that would promote strong winds mixing to the ground. There is the slightest hint of mixing in a very shallow layer at the ground, but you do have an inversion above that, and the box below the sounding explicitly shows 0 sfc-based CAPE. The reason you see some impressive convective signatures in the guidance is the strong lift with the PVA and the front. There is also a little bit of elevated instability (the most unstable CAPE is listed as around 430) to assist. To be clear, though, if we can end up a few degrees higher on both the temperature and dew point, we might then have a legitimate threat to have sfc-based storms that are capable of strong wind gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, high risk said: You're absolutely correct about the very strong winds above the surface and the intense forcing that will be present. But that sounding is not one that would promote strong winds mixing to the ground. There is the slightest hint of mixing in a very shallow layer at the ground, but you do have an inversion above that, and the box below the sounding explicitly shows 0 sfc-based CAPE. The reason you see some impressive convective signatures in the guidance is the strong lift with the PVA and the front. There is also a little bit of elevated instability (the most unstable CAPE is listed as around 430) to assist. To be clear, though, if we can end up a few degrees higher on both the temperature and dew point, we might then have a legitimate threat to have sfc-based storms that are capable of strong wind gusts. Also I assume the area being in the right entrance region of the jet-streak is contributing as well promoting rising air through upper-level divergence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Enhanced risk Hampton Roads down through much of eastern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 23, 2020 Author Share Posted December 23, 2020 The orientation of the SPC outlook is similar to some of our high shear/low CAPE spinny days. Not saying they compare at all - but when you get s potent system like this - anything is possible. That outlook matches my thoughts mostly. I think everyone is at risk for gusty winds, but any tors should be limited to SE of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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