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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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52 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Did you see the challenger documentary on Netflix?  I thought it was excellent!

There are several out there, what was the title?

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50 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Today is the anniversary of the College Park tornado.

 

Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him?  Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links?

https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001

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7 hours ago, yoda said:

Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him?  Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links?

https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/

https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001

     He assisted at the cleanup at the Maryland Fire and Rescue Institute which was heavily damaged and suffered a heart attack while driving home that evening.     Who knows if he would have suffered the cardiac episode had he not been at the scene.....

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         I can actually say that I saw the 2001 tornado as it moved through Laurel.      No one had cell phone cameras back then, so I have no pictures, but my view was very similar to this one:

             

 

 

             I'm definitely intrigued by the Tuesday potential, although fall events here are so tough to pull off due to limited instability.

       

 

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yeah, the shear profiles for later Tuesday have so much potential, but over the years, I've seen a ton of great fall setups fail here due to terrible lapse rates and instability.   Any system at this time of year that is strong enough to have great accompanying wind fields usually generates a lot of cloud cover and showers well out ahead of the front.

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

yeah, the shear profiles for later Tuesday have so much potential, but over the years, I've seen a ton of great fall setups fail here due to terrible lapse rates and instability.   Any system at this time of year that is strong enough to have great accompanying wind fields usually generates a lot of cloud cover and showers well out ahead of the front.

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. 

It seems the guidance wants to track the low nearby or even to the southeast. The low being SE of us is going to probably nix any severe potential. We'll need to see if that trends back north and west a bit. 

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Anyone recall October 01, 1986?  I spent that day moving radio transmitter hardware from Severn MD to White Hall, it was near 90°F and could feel the change coming by dinner time.  Nice line of storms rolled through.  Power knocked out and tower for our 2M repeater in Phoenix took a hit.  Next day was cooler thank goodness.

Also, two years ago to this day we had nice storms roll through.  A close hit to an overhead across the street knocked out power momentarily and the thunder set off a howling wolf on our porch. 

 

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22 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. 

       I do remember that event - another classic low cape, high shear fall event here, although this one had dew points into the low 70s.      I don't think that there was much precip out ahead of the line, but it was definitely cloudy.   The reports map looks way better than the event was - I remember being very surprised by the upgrade to MDT and very unimpressed by the line.    Most of the reports in our area were of single trees being knocked down.

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8 hours ago, high risk said:

       I do remember that event - another classic low cape, high shear fall event here, although this one had dew points into the low 70s.      I don't think that there was much precip out ahead of the line, but it was definitely cloudy.   The reports map looks way better than the event was - I remember being very surprised by the upgrade to MDT and very unimpressed by the line.    Most of the reports in our area were of single trees being knocked down.

I remember that day as well. I remember some heavy showers throughout the day w/ breezy conditions. I remember getting home from school in Herndon hust after 2:30pm and being surprised that the main line was already right on my doorstep. Looking back at that thread I remember lots on here being surprised at how early the main line arrived as well. There were brief torrential rains and wind gusts into the 30s (mph) here from the line. I noticed no thunder/lightning at all from it. I too was surprised to see looking back at SPC archives for that event a few years later that we had been placed under a MDT risk for wind (45% non-hatched). That would just be a high-end ENH risk the way that SPC works today. I remember the lack of tornado warnings as well despite being in a 10% non-hatched tor risk.

The September 8th, 2012 event ten days prior, on the other hand, was a lot more impressive in the region with a lot of minor wind damage. I got wind gusts of 50+ mph in my neighborhood from that event. The funny thing is that the line from that event seemed more impressive down here than it did up the urban corridor where there was an actual MDT risk in the place... save for the Long Island tornadoes that day. 

As a whole though, that September was definitely a bit more exciting than usual severe weather-wise. 

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8 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out. 

LWX in their afternoon AFD talked about it too

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the extended period, high pressure will be present Wednesday
into most of Thursday. An upper-level trough will be migrating to
the east, dipping down into parts of the Midwest. This will be the
driver for our next chance of rain as a cold front out ahead of the
trough will starting pushing through Thursday into Friday. The
latest GFS run has it getting here quicker than the ECMWF by about
12 hours so confidence on timing is still a little low. QPF totals
could pose a threat depending on timing and intensity of the front.
As for now, confidence remains low on any potential hazards for the
event. Winds will increase ahead of the front by about 5-10 knots.

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Last chance saloon on Wednesday for this years severe?  From this morning's AFD:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Troughing is expected to lift from the Midwest across the Great
Lakes Wednesday overtop of a persistent and unusually strong ridge
of high pressure just off the Carolina coast. Warm/moist advection
along a surface front ahead of the trough will likely result in rain
showers breaking out across the Middle Atlantic on Wednesday. Dew
points will be unusually high for this time of the year, which
combined with the increasing shear and jet dynamics raises the
question of potential severe weather. The extent of any
thunderstorms and severe threat will be dependent at least in part
on how much instability there is, which may be modest.

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Looks like another high shear nonexistent CAPE event that produces nothing for us... maybe a few rumbles of thunder south of I-64image.thumb.png.6601b3ee74bee364d9e49d6959b0012e.pngimage.thumb.png.06d9aa43f5c98fe75a671eab7e90224e.png

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Could be that "severe season" never really ends this year and just rolls into 2021.

Yeah. Just wait until February... and also, prior to that, mid/late December.

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