pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3k came south w frozen. Hoping it’s some snow then sleet. If Zr.......yuk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. Sleet map from MA: That’s fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. 3K Sleet map from MA: Verbatim...You look pretty safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Verbatim...You look pretty safe Goofus wants to ruin it for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I think most of us would get onboard the 0z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. 3K Sleet map from MA: Geesh.. the most distinct line is running the east slope of the Allegheny front, which I'm within that zone. It's probably not exaggerating too much on the excessive sleet totals if the NAM is in fact correct with the heavy sleet scenario it has been putting out. Lot of the LSV in the 0.5-1" range. Even that much sleet on a couple inches of snow does wonders with anchoring the snowpack lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Geesh.. the most distinct line is running the east slope of the Allegheny front, which I'm within that zone. It's probably not exaggerating too much on the excessive sleet totals if the NAM is in fact correct with the heavy sleet scenario it has been putting out. Lot of the LSV in the 0.5-1" range. Even that much sleet on a couple inches of snow does wonders with anchoring the snowpack lol. Well you may like this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Geesh.. the most distinct line is running the east slope of the Allegheny front, which I'm within that zone. It's probably not exaggerating too much on the excessive sleet totals if the NAM is in fact correct with the heavy sleet scenario it has been putting out. Lot of the LSV in the 0.5-1" range. Even that much sleet on a couple inches of snow does wonders with anchoring the snowpack lol. And I did not mean to not mention the deep colors out your way. I do have an LSV slant to my posts sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And I did not mean to not mention the deep colors out your way. I do have an LSV slant to my posts sometimes. Oh nah your fine, was just pointing out the terrain under where it is putting out those high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 What’s deal with Nepa sny snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: What’s deal with Nepa sny snow hole? Best forcing S and SW of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Best forcing S and SW of them It is a a peculiar hole. Shows on nam and gfs. Almost like an eye of calm around qpf and encircling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It is a a peculiar hole. Shows on nam and gfs. Almost like an eye of calm around qpf and encircling it. FF at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Total storm qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: FF at 850 I concur on lack of forcing but still peculiar and not sure it plays out in results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:41 PM, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Does this have something to do with weather pattern?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Best forcing S and SW of them That forcing looks good for the LSV. Hopefully it will help to sustain good precip rates to fight off the mixing as long as possible tomorrow. We will also need to keep our eye on the critical thickness levels as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 On 1/16/2020 at 7:22 PM, Flatheadsickness said: Last 24 hours. I posted some links to some great literature with great onfo on remanent magnetization and electromagnetic pulses last year among other things that could help us I take it no one read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Verbatim...You look pretty safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: That forcing looks good for the LSV. Hopefully it will help to sustain good precip rates to fight off the mixing as long as possible tomorrow. We will also need to keep our eye on the critical thickness levels as well. Gut says 6zs will paint the picture As CAD almost becomes nowcasting as even Messi struggle to pick up duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Gfs really early with snow breaking out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, it really lite up the Mason Dixon with an extremely heavy line of sleet. LSV never goes above freezing. 3K Sleet map from MA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That forcing looks good for the LSV. Hopefully it will help to sustain good precip rates to fight off the mixing as long as possible tomorrow. We will also need to keep our eye on the critical thickness levels as well. Specifically that yellow thickness line that corresponds to the 850mb-700mb thickness in this situation. That's more specifically where we will see the column potentially go above freezing during the main precip portion from the WAA. Because of the warming in the mid levels 700-500mb, this is a situation that will snow above the traditional 5400 thickness number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Euro has Rt 22 as perhaps the line where sleet really cuts down totals-UNV 5.0" this run (NW PA up to 8"), AOO about 3", JST a little over 1". Tomorrow should be fun for you guys, hopefully the mid levels aren't cooked too early but I remember all the bad reminders I lived through in State College where the sleet line stopped for nothing. If it comes in heavy hopefully it gets held off. South of the Turnpike looks mostly like an ice (sleet) event of some type regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Have the give the NAM credit for its finger of snow depiction. Looking at live radar the NAM was probably the best 2-3 days ago showing the separation between the warm front and the main area of precip to arrive later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Headed out to drive wife to BWI. 6Z GFS is a Horst PLUS ONE special. Little snow and drives temps way up this afternoon. Basically ignores CAD after early afternoon. Still has the @Wmsptwx snow hole. Mostly sleet and plain rain for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 looks like a ok band for my area then the Squirrel gets slotted in the nuts . I know my brass balls call is done .Still maybe a win of some kind for lightning. Going to split wood until my hands bleed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just in the last few minutes the initial band appears to be loosing vigor for now but the northern edge of slot is filling in but we look hard pressed to fill in in or area. I will name this storm Occludy the dancing octopus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 more bad news looks that the back side of the slot is not most robust at the moment . A little mixing in Morgantown according to returns. Initial band is starting to break down quit a bit coold air is holding some ground at the moment ZR PL is progressing though. slot no longer filling in on northern edege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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