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meatwad

Pittsburgh PA Area Rest of fall and Winter 2019-2020 thread

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I had come across this "what city will my town be like in the future with climate change" map awhile ago. It's a neat map to play around with, though I'm not sure how rigorous the science behind it is. But it's bleak for us if it comes true. According to the makers, we should expect future Pittsburgh to be like current Jonesboro, Arkansas, which receives a whopping 5" of snow annually.  Given this run of sad winters as of late, though, it feels like we could be in the South. Here's the link to the article I read with the map: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/this-scary-map-shows-how-climate-change-will-transform-your-city/amp

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Don't give up hope yet. Long range is finally looking good for some winter fun. Whether or not it comes to fruition is one thing. Atleast there are signs that we get a period of winter. 

 

m2oZMlU.gif

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28 minutes ago, north pgh said:

As usual we will be in the battle zone for precip type but from next Saturday on, there will at least be some interest and things to track. I am looking forward to it. :snowwindow:

Hoping no more mid 60’s til late April!! I’m ready for a few days with lows in the single digits already

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We need the primary to die off fast and transfer or this is gonna be a quick changeover. Still a week out 

 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

We need the primary to die off fast and transfer or this is gonna be a quick changeover. Still a week out 

 

Unfortunately it has that classic CAD look, where longitude is our enemy. 

However like you said, it’s still a week away. 
Possibly the 850’s end up a few degrees colder, and the precip rates are heavier at the start. 
We’ll see. 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
PAC003-125-112245-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0001.200111T2220Z-200111T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
520 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania...
  Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania...

* Until 545 PM EST.

* At 519 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near McDonald, or
  9 miles northeast of Avella, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 60 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Pittsburgh...                     Penn Hills...
  Mount Lebanon...                  Bethel Park...
  Ross Township...                  McCandless Township...
  Monroeville...                    Moon Township...
  McMurray...                       McKeesport...
  Franklin Park...                  Canonsburg...

This includes the following highways...
  Pennsylvania Turnpike between mile markers 38 and 58.
  Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 42 and 70.
  Interstate 376 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 51 and 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to
the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 7970 4058 7977 4055 7976 4053 7970
      4046 7970 4042 7971 4037 7977 4029 7978
      4028 7980 4026 7979 4024 7981 4022 7979
      4020 7987 4019 7986 4023 8043 4047 8042
      4048 8036 4050 8033 4067 7979 4067 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 248DEG 38KT 4037 8032

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

 

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5 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Unfortunately it has that classic CAD look, where longitude is our enemy. 

However like you said, it’s still a week away. 
Possibly the 850’s end up a few degrees colder, and the precip rates are heavier at the start. 
We’ll see. 

No matter the outcome of next weekend it appears some legitimate winter weather may be on tap.

Odds probably favor the slop storm outcome next weekend that we have all come to know and love but it beats 70s right? Plenty of time though for things to change, if it was a modeled SW PA blizzard we all know it would change, question is does it change enough to affect sensible weather. 

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Next weekend is looking like the usual CAD where its 20 degrees out east and its 45 here. I don't expect much from that system. Hopefully we can cash in with the pattern change but I have my doubts. I'm at the point if we ever get a big storm again I'll stop tracking because it will be another 15 before we get anything noteworthy. 

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Euro showing a pretty decent thump on saturday. This if of course before a change over to some mix and then all rain. Not sure it pans out, but its something to watch.

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The trend is looking good for a quick thump and maybe it trends better but with that warm tongue I never get my Hope's up. 

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55 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The trend is looking good for a quick thump and maybe it trends better but with that warm tongue I never get my Hope's up. 

I agree 100%. The front end thump hardly ever verifies. (Maybe in the 70's and 90's but not recently.) 

This mid week rain storm is looking stronger so this may impact the weekend storm one way or another.

Things are looking better however so we shall see. 

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1 hour ago, MikeB_01 said:

Euro showing a pretty decent thump on saturday. This if of course before a change over to some mix and then all rain. Not sure it pans out, but its something to watch.

 

57 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

The trend is looking good for a quick thump and maybe it trends better but with that warm tongue I never get my Hope's up. 

There seems like a consensus is forming among the big three of at least 1-3" on the front end.

Nothing great, but outside of a few rogue snow squalls, this would be the biggest event so far. Smh

 

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While all the attention is on the Saturday storm, as it should be, some models are showing some decent snow showers on the back-end Wed night and Thursday am. Not anything big but don't be surprised if some areas pick up an inch or less. We'll see how it pans out. 

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9 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Well, the Ukie could have been better lol

 

Euro and the Ukie look almost identical. Anyone have access to the EPS? Would like to see the variability between the members.

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13 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Well, the Ukie could have been better lol

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 12.26.20 AM.png

You could basically copy and paste this map for 90% of our storms. 

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It just doesn't want to snow this year. We can't even get a clipper that drops 1-3. Everytime a pattern or storm looks promising in the future it goes to shit fast. We usually have bad luck but it's on a whole other level this year. The storm after this looks like a coastal so I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel. 

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Gfs is faster and colder FWIW. That's what we need if we want a decent thump before the changeover. Let's see if we get some good trends here. 

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Since we all know we are getting our usual dose of mix to rain on Saturday ......

I am still looking at Tomorrow, Thursday. NWS Pittsburgh is showing a 20% chance of slight snow showers tomorrow and tomorrow night.

I still think we are going to get some decent snow showers tomorrow and some areas may pick up an inch if they get under a nice band.

Who knows, it might actually be more snow than we get this weekend. :whistle:

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Hi everybody,

I'm new here.  From Pittsburgh, all my life, and love weather.  I like my seasons to be what they are supposed to be, winter to be cold and snowy, spring, mild turning warm, and sunny, summer sunny and hot, and fall cool and sunny with snow chances towards the end.

I was on a different board, and grew very tired of the way they ran it and how they handled the way people felt about patterns.  I read through a few pages here and feel like the Pittsburghers have a place to vent.  There wasn't one over there, we were pretty much dismissed.

I'm not an expert by any means, so I try to learn, but I'm just glad that I will have a place to commiserate or celebrate with a larger group of people. 

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I honestly just don't think its gonna snow. We either get a crap pacific or a crap atlantic. Even now the MJO goes into phase 7 which isn't terrible but still warmish for January. We need this in phase 8,1,2. The storm after this one looks pretty identical to the saturday slop. Maybe we get lucky in February as the wavelengths start shortening. Idk every time the long range looks good it goes to shit as we get closer to the storm. 

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