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mattie g

October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The Sunday system would be a nice snowstorm if this were a month later.  

Yep....simply too marginal of an airmass . Maybe a 980's  south of our lat without running up to north WV 1st before jumping se towards the coast would maby allow crashing column but even then not sure . Regardless great to see the general overall track recently of systems.  One will get us and I'm betting sooner than later. 

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HH Euro continues to show a stronger vort signature and surface low for Sat night  /Sunday . Dumps pretty decent qpf in central Md.  Ensembles also are much wetter and stronger with low pressure.  Heck...there's even 3 or 4 that show some minor snow accumulations in northern Md from the coma Sunday morning. 

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like a decent soaker incoming after some light rain today.. Maybe an inch+. Been dry lately so no complaints other than I have a lot of outside stuff to get done.

Honestly I'm pretty optimistic seeing the wet coming in with some consistency. I personally believe getting that first then have cold come works best.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Honestly I'm pretty optimistic seeing the wet coming in with some consistency. I personally believe getting that first then have cold come works best.

Yeah having an active pattern that rains on us a bunch can ultimately lead to timing it up with some cold air pressing. I don't mind seeing a few cutters either, as eventually we should get a cold push behind one and a trailing wave can ride the boundary and take a favorable track underneath. The Dec 5th deal looks like a virtual lock.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah having an active pattern that rains on us a bunch can ultimately lead to timing it up with some cold air pressing. I don't mind seeing a few cutters either, as eventually we should get a cold push behind one and a trailing wave can ride the boundary and take a favorable track underneath. The Dec 5th deal looks like a virtual lock.

Fauquier County has already closed for that day.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah having an active pattern that rains on us a bunch can ultimately lead to timing it up with some cold air pressing. I don't mind seeing a few cutters either, as eventually we should get a cold push behind one and a trailing wave can ride the boundary and take a favorable track underneath. The Dec 5th deal looks like a virtual lock.

Was just thinking the same thing.  Once the calendar turns, the pattern looks to be capable of giving us a legit threat to track.  6Z GEFS for that general timeframe was perty imo. 

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Was just thinking the same thing.  Once the calendar turns, the pattern looks to be capable of giving us a legit threat to track.  6Z GEFS for that general timeframe was perty imo. 

That Thing at the very end on December would be funny considering it's on basically the same day as last year’s December 8-10th storm. Just to clarify: i know i’m an idiot for talking about things outside of the forecast time. I’m just bored and want some hot dogs.:weenie:

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Euro is quite chilly for the holiday weekend. Cold and windy. Looks like I won’t have to worry about the leftovers that my mother in law stores on her porch spoiling. 

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Gfs closes out November with some front end frozen then backend frozen  next weekend . Verbatim the primary runs all the way to Erie and still jumps to off OC blowing up quickly.  Well south and east of last run . Hopefully more fun runs to come in the next week ahead 

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5 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs closes out November with some front end frozen then backend frozen  next weekend . Verbatim the primary runs all the way to Erie and still jumps to off OC blowing up quickly.  Well south and east of last run . Hopefully more fun runs to come in the next week ahead 

HH run transfers even further south off Va beach vs OC . Sooner or later we might have to start believing these op runs :D

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