pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 Looking at the GEFS it appears that next weeks 'warm up' still remains centered on 23-24, and once to Christmas and beyond Bubblers suggestion of zonal looks like a good call. The good is that no real warmth appears in the offing, but the bad is that the pattern is not one that has a stormy look to it. Once beyond Santa day, the Op and the Ens seem to diverge on 500 flow....that can be good (if one believes Ens)....or bad (if the Op is onto something). For now, i'm sticking with my it aint great or horrible mindset and we'll see how that can be tweaked once beyond this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 1 hour ago, daxx said: You cant forget Christmas 2002!! Probably the best Christmas storm of all time. That Christmas was so awesome! 40 minutes ago, pasnownut said: thx wife tried it w/ her hips (pre surgery). I may see if she still has any "stash" I swear by it now. My Nephew is a licensed Hemp grower. 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came. It WAS a true Christmas miracle. Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle. I'd give body parts for a redux. Me too. 12 minutes ago, daxx said: In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before. Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning. Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. I just refereed to my notes. We had 1.5" Christmas eve night then 11.5 on the 25th. i kind of forgot we had some decent snow prior to that. After Christmas day i was at 21" for the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, pasnownut said: For me....a necessary evil of sorts lol. If one truly loves weather, there is serious talent/knowledge in that forum...let alone a handful of active Mets. Some of "our" crew have left here and now post primarily because of the level of convo/info to be had down there. You get a diverse blend of information and knowledge sharing. Believe me when i say that I'd love to just stay here, because while we may not have quite the depth of knowledge....we are the coolest. Dont tell them i said that....its hard enough for me to "keep my place" down there. Good Lord they are a territorial bunch. I wonder how they would take a guy from NCPA posting? Haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: I wonder how they would take a guy from NCPA posting? Haha 1. Tell them that you have snow on the ground (even if you don't) and they don't 2. Tell them why the Patriots will beat the Ravens. Make sure you mark that specifically to Phin. 3. Run like there's no tomorrow out of there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: 1. Tell them that you have snow on the ground (even if you don't) and they don't 2. Tell them why the Patriots will beat the Ravens. Make sure you mark that specifically to Phin. 3. Run like there's no tomorrow out of there. Lol I can't stand phin, but it's not weather related. I know better than to wander in there, you guys are closer to their weather directly so it makes sense to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Looking at the GEFS it appears that next weeks 'warm up' still remains centered on 23-24, and once to Christmas and beyond Bubblers suggestion of zonal looks like a good call. The good is that no real warmth appears in the offing, but the bad is that the pattern is not one that has a stormy look to it. Once beyond Santa day, the Op and the Ens seem to diverge on 500 flow....that can be good (if one believes Ens)....or bad (if the Op is onto something). For now, i'm sticking with my it aint great or horrible mindset and we'll see how that can be tweaked once beyond this weekend. I thought 12z gefs looked terrible. It keeps the trough out west and pumps heights up here in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: I thought 12z gefs looked terrible. It keeps the trough out west and pumps heights up here in the east. It's about as bad a look as I've seen yet. @Atomixwx is sitting back saying "I told you guys..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1. Tell them that you have snow on the ground (even if you don't) and they don't 2. Tell them why the Patriots will beat the Ravens. Make sure you mark that specifically to Phin. 3. Run like there's no tomorrow out of there. dude...i literally just LOL'd. thats good stuff... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, daxx said: I thought 12z gefs looked terrible. It keeps the trough out west and pumps heights up here in the east. There are actually several panels in a row, between Christmas and New Years, where there is not one negative temp reading anywhere within the confines of the CONUS map on TT which includes a good chunk of South and Central Canada. Zonal to an extreme for Northern half of the US. Still that is better to me than lows constantly carving out troughs just to our west. Neither solution is going to give is a Hec's but Zonal could be enough to get us into some snowier situations on day to day. But pattern wise its disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, daxx said: I thought 12z gefs looked terrible. It keeps the trough out west and pumps heights up here in the east. I should have stated, that I'm only focusing up to 240, as I dont trust any model beyond that range. Ridging is still there, but less than a couple days ago. see below for my reasoning. now a couple runs later. Gettin a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1. Tell them that you have snow on the ground (even if you don't) and they don't 2. Tell them why the Patriots will beat the Ravens. Make sure you mark that specifically to Phin. 3. Run like there's no tomorrow out of there. Also they like MJO talk. When things get down just post an MJO graphic and confidently talk about skipping phases. Also post tweets from HM with shovels in his hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 500s a few runs ago and todays. I may be reaching a bit, but if one looks at tellies, I could see further correction to something more workable. Less ridging in the east and heights a bit less ominous. Beyond that....who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 and if one does extrapolate beyond, you can see more zonal setting up bubbler suggested earlier. tellies supporting my reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 AO is all over the place, so that could be a wildcard that makes or breaks us. MJO low amplitude but not great, so IMO, i'd think other indices may have a say in where we are headed. If anyone disagrees with my reasoning, thats totally fine. LMK what you think. I've gotta get on the road, but would be happy to discuss why I may be off my rocker...not the first time its been said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 I tried real hard to find a positive in that gefs run. Sorry...I just can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Maybe a new look at 00z. Maybe the Euro and the eps show better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Disappointing pattern especially with the cold we have in place right now. I'm calling winter is over! NOT.....but would have loved to have just one white Christmas, when was our last one? I can't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, daxx said: I tried real hard to find a positive in that gefs run. Sorry...I just can't. My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us. If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days. The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation. I am frustrated with the constant train of waves going up to our west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Just now, Bubbler86 said: My spin is that it gives us a better chance at bowling ball type lows and we sneak in a frozen event with seasonal temps despite the Pacific spewing all over us. If one wants arctic air then the american suite has absolutely none after we are done here in the next couple days. The pole is completely shut off. But I think it could still get cold enough for snow in the right situation. I am frustrated with constant train of waves going up to our west. Sure we could luck our way into snow. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Sure we could luck our way into snow. No doubt. And that's the positive. We don't anomalous to work...we need moisture and normal temps. As Bubbler said if we can get something to traverse below our latitude we can still score. Odds are it won't be big and it wouldn't last but it be data on the data sheet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: Sure we could luck our way into snow. No doubt. Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week. Nope...you are reading it right. 850s riding the md line or close by is not a very good look if you ask me. Thing I don't like is the trough out west and ridge in the east almost the whole run. If that's a good look then I need to stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, daxx said: Nope...you are reading it right. 850s riding the md line or close by is not a very good look if you ask me. Thing I don't like is the trough out west and ridge in the east almost the whole run. If that's a good look then I need to stop posting. I agree that there's no way it is a good look. Its just better than the rest of this year IMO. Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates) and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing. All we need is a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut. The ridge can gently move it N/E without cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I agree that there's no way it is a good look. Its just better than the rest of this year IMO. Two weeks ago we had great looks for the Dec 15th-Dec 30th time frame (estimating dates) and it ended up being a combo of false info and bad timing. All we need a piece of energy to eject out of the far S/W and not be bullied to cut. The ridge can gently moving it N/E without cutting. Absolutely! We can score with this. In two days I'm sure it will look totally different. Euro is definitely not a torch. As you said some minor adjustments and we could have minor/moderate event. Euro through 240 hours the highest 2m temp I can see is 50 on the 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe I am reading the map wrong but isn't the surface boundary/freezing line close to our locale through much of the first 5 days of January? Its a smoothed out average but not sure I will call it a toaster bath. I see the 850's anomaly's are up but not nearly as much as what we have coming next week. Yes. 2m temps are not bad. That why I agree that something could come bowling across. Scary part is there is not a strong baroclinic zone and verbatim we could easily be in the wrong side if the snow fence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Absolutely! We can score with this. In two days I'm sure it will look totally different. Euro is definitely not a torch. As you said some minor adjustments and we could have minor/moderate event. Euro through 240 hours the highest 2m temp I can see is 50 on the 23. I just do not like that 240 hour map with another mid west blizzard but not worth breaking down a 240 map. Seems to be nudging 50 on Christmas Eve and Day as well. On the plus side people who are travelling in the East will not have to worry about snow delays. One thing is for sure...no one is going skating on their local pond any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2019 Author Share Posted December 19, 2019 18 minutes ago, daxx said: Nope...you are reading it right. 850s riding the md line or close by is not a very good look if you ask me. Thing I don't like is the trough out west and ridge in the east almost the whole run. If that's a good look then I need to stop posting. You can also see the split flow developing post Christmas. That will be a key. At 500 if the SW cuts off we are cooked. Keep that open and the northern energy can digenjn A little more hence shifting the ridge axis in the easy as I shared earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 The eps looks terrible through hour 240. Trough out west ridge in the east. If we luck into snow I will be the first to call it the Bubbler storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, daxx said: The esp looks terrible through hour 240. Trough out west ridge in the east. If we luck into snow I will be the first to call it the Bubbler storm. There was a Bubbler storm last year as well. Will it become a yearly tradition? OP EC also brought back that light frozen "stuff" around the 26th albeit a little north of the LSV this time. Some flakes around then would at least add to the festive atmosphere a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 I should probably say higher heights in the east, trough out west. There is no high pressure in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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