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WEATHER53

WEATHER 53 Winter Outlook

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I think things are underway, First the shift to wet in October and now  temps looking colder. Pattern changes and can last 2/3 months around DC which fits with my outlook 

 

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11 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

So Isotherm and Matt go mild with around average snow, I agree with snow but think colder.

 

Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. 

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11 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

Yeah. Your outlook is interesting and no doubt could come to fruition. I do think we’ll see quite a bit of blocking this winter, so my warmth could be overdone. 

Your write up was so good. Technical enough for us and a more  general way of explaining also that public will understand.

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Right now think my analogs look very good into, and I think thru,December. Some good long rangers had mid Atlantic shifting mild again after 15-19Th Nov and I don’t see that, in fact the opposite.

i want to comment on our method of choosing specific occurrent weather from the March into Sept time frame of the year preceding the winter for the long range we issue in Sept. We have believed since 1980 that this period sets the tone for the winter. The trick is what occurrences do you emphasize the most or least. Also, we do not believe nor state that a, just as an example, very cool June followed by a very dry July and August CAUSES a cold but not very snowy winter but we do say that if 80% of the time since 1945 that was the winter outcome  then  that probably is the foundation of the outlook and we compare, or perhaps contrast, that with other events of the March-Sept time period to complete the outlook.

i know I am a distinct minority but I think all of the indexes are mainly alphabet soup, many just a decade or so in existence, largely unproven.  I think the pattern causes them and they not the pattern but what does cause the pattern  is still Gods mystery. Now, high pressure does have to be in the right place to deliver the cold so there are some requirements. I think the indexes are the seasoning on the meat but not the meat.

Any question please just ask.

 

 

 

 

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