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wxeyeNH

Major Hurricane Lorenzo

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With the exception of Dorian and Lorenzo, every other storm this season has struggled. I think it has more to do with the strength of the vort as it came off of Africa and favorable UL conditions in the Eastern Atlantic as opposed to some anomalously high SST in that area. It’s not like every wave coming off of Africa in that spot has developed, in fact it’ll likely be the only one this year.

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11 am update (system continues to weaken and is moving NNE) -

Quote
623 
WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on
Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Steady weakening is expected over the next
few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in
a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


 

 

Quick Links and Additional Resources
Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 291456
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now
weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well
as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye
has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud
tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of
the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent
subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial
intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is
very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the
previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges
significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction
between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland
late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has
shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of
runs.  However, there remains significant spread between the
operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the
British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the
larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent
shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was
only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the
consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence
beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further
adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity
guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily
weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later
today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment
of the hurricane's intensity and structure.  In a few days, Lorenzo
will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an
extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by
96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is
forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is
expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and
50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively
from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at
NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 25.9N  44.4W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 27.2N  43.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 28.9N  43.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 31.0N  41.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 33.7N  38.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 42.0N  29.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 50.0N  18.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1200Z 54.9N  11.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

145733_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

With the exception of Dorian and Lorenzo, every other storm this season has struggled. I think it has more to do with the strength of the vort as it came off of Africa and favorable UL conditions in the Eastern Atlantic as opposed to some anomalously high SST in that area. It’s not like every wave coming off of Africa in that spot has developed, in fact it’ll likely be the only one this year.

SST anomalies in the area that the storm RI'd are on the order of + 1-2 C.

The storm had also been experiencing relatively large (e.g. 20 kt) shear during this time, so it's not like synoptic conditions were exceptionally favorable.  You're probably right in that this system found a local "hole" in otherwise hostile conditions to intensify, but this was probably facilitated by warmer than normal SSTs. 

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5 pm update (weaker and now down to a CAT 3 and may be undergoing an ERC) -

Quote
652 
WTNT33 KNHC 292044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 44.2W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is expected over the next
couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane
throughout that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 292045
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with
cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the
convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms
that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests
there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental
flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with
valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the
hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously
thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The
aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948
mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an
on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The
available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from
102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial
intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous
given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence
remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance
continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are
handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical
cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do
not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they
track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the
associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo
absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British
Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours,
and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.

The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is
moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler
than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters
with lower oceanic heat content.  The environmental conditions
for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly
shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to
the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is
anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger
shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough
should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to
transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so,
extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official
intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one
through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is
near the various multimodel consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 26.9N  44.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 28.2N  43.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  30/1800Z 30.1N  42.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 32.4N  40.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 35.6N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1800Z 44.6N  26.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  03/1800Z 52.2N  17.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  04/1800Z 55.0N  15.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

204646_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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11 pm & 2 am updates (Lorenzo has now weakened to a CAT 2 and the windfield has expanded) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 300533
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.2W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 43.2 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quote
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with
a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud
shield expanding in the northern semicircle.  Satellite intensity
estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt.  It should be
emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday,
the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during
that time.

Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is
upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and
this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the
next couple of days.  While the SSTs drop off considerably after
late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of
the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time
with strong upper-level divergence.  These effects are expected to
offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near
the Azores.  Little change was made to the previous forecast, except
to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more
heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers
for this cyclone.  The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo
becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is
reflected in the latest forecast.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the
subtropical ridge.  The forecast track confidence remains very high
through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the
northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one.  After that time,
however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by
whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it
remains separate.  There isn't much change in the newest guidance,
although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty
far east of its ensemble mean.  The forecast track confidence is
extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged
just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east
of the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 27.6N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 28.9N  42.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 31.0N  41.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 33.9N  38.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 37.5N  34.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 48.0N  22.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0000Z 53.0N  17.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0000Z 54.0N  17.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued
a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
on Monday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday in the Azores.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

 

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5 am update (continues to weaken and storm motion has increased) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 300836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 43.1W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 43.1 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 300838
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has generally changed little
during the last several hours.  The hurricane continues to maintain
a well-defined inner core with a ragged cloud-filled eye.  The
outer bands are well established to the north and east of the
center, but are restricted on the south side of the circulation due
to some southwesterly shear and drier air being wrapped into that
portion of the cyclone.  The initial intensity estimate is set at 90
kt based on T5.0/90 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 11 kt through a break in
the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  The models generally agree that
Lorenzo should pick up forward speed and move northeastward
during the next day or two as a trough amplifies over the central
Atlantic.  This flow should take the core of Lorenzo near or to
the west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
After that time, the spread in the guidance increases with several
of the models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showing Lorenzo
turning north-northeastward or northward as it moves around
the east side of a large extratropical low.  The new ECMWF run has
shifted closer to the GFS/HWRF/HMON solutions, but it still is
considerably to the east of those models as it shows less
interaction with the extratropical low.  The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the left to come into better agreement
with the latest consensus aids.  Although the spread in the models
is not as large as it was yesterday, the forecast beyond 48 hours is
still of low confidence given the uncertainty in the longer-term
steering flow.

The intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward than the
track forecast.  The bulk of the guidance shows the hurricane
maintaining its intensity or weakening slightly during the next day
or two while it remains over relatively warm waters and in moderate
wind shear conditions.  It seems likely that Lorenzo will
be a significant hurricane when it passes near the Azores in about
2 days.  After that time, more notable weakening should occur due to
a significant drop off in SSTs, drier air, and much stronger shear.
In fact, these conditions should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is expected to be complete by 72 hours.
Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 5 following the global
model guidance.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next few days.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for the Azores, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings could be required later today for those islands.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 28.7N  43.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 30.3N  42.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 32.7N  40.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 36.0N  36.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 40.5N  31.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 52.0N  20.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/0600Z 57.0N  13.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

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8 am update (systems continues to weaken as the windfield expands and forward motion increases) -

Quote
314 
WTNT33 KNHC 301154
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 42.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 42.9 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (20 km/h).  A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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11 am update (still a CAT 2 as it continues to weaken and speed it's forward motion and expected to go post-tropical by the end of the week) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 301456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 42.6W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 301502
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength.  A cloud filled eye is
evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is
attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the
hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone
is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the
southwest.  The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this
advisory.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple
of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across
the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo
near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours,
but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue
to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the
steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo
de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the
west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the
approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn
Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with
limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is
very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies
in between these two scenarios.

Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while
drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the
system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the
interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front,
and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo
into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be
complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate
or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The
official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one,
and is in good agreement with the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are now in effect for the Azores.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/1500Z 30.0N  42.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 31.7N  41.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 34.5N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 38.1N  34.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 43.3N  28.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 53.5N  17.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1200Z 58.2N  11.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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2 pm interim (no change in strength or speed) -

Quote
575 
WTNT33 KNHC 301739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 42.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 42.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.  This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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Structure has greatly improved the past few hours. Lorenzo is a fighter.
 
Lorenxo.thumb.jpg.394562eaa2e38dedf66dc2bd3d82f8c6.jpg
goes16_ir_13L-3.thumb.gif.81f7e877dae05da77148dc9bcae702c1.gif
Upper tropospheric temperatures are cooling as Lorenzo gains latitude. There is also the deep layer trough moving in. I suspect both enhancements are countering the drop in SSTs, though Lorenzo is still over sufficient heat content to support a Cat 2. The structure has improved in so much it should at least maintain intensity for the next day until asymmetric transition begins.

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5 pm update already out (still holding as a CAT 2) -

Quote
245 
WTNT33 KNHC 302031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West.  Lorenzo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight.  A
weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto
Quote
876 
WTNT43 KNHC 302032
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of
scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now
extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds
can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has
been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent
Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining
its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for
this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo
recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum
central pressure of 957 mb.

Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over
the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough
amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72
hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better
agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right
toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The
official forecast track is just a little to the right of the
previous one and lies near the consensus aids.

The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much
through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly
steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening
as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over
progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the
approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong
southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an
extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72
hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly
after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through
the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near
term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that
time.

Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are now in effect for the Azores.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 30.9N  42.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 32.8N  40.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 36.1N  36.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 40.3N  31.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 45.9N  25.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 55.2N  14.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  04/1800Z 56.3N  10.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

 

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8 pm update (holding steady but expected to increase forward motion soon) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 302354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 41.8 West.  Lorenzo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight.  A
weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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11 pm/2 am updates (continues to maintain strength and has sped up) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 010550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 40.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 40.5 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves
near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores today and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

Quote
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 41.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves
near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

 

Quote
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large
cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain
near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed.  The initial
wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer
data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at
about 17 kt.  Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast
during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude
trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the
hurricane near the western Azores.  The longer-range future of
Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much
better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to
Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over
western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and
is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone
moving over progressively cooler waters.  Extratropical transition
should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model
agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time.
Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and
the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is
deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly
already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on
the eastern side of Lorenzo.  The hurricane will be accelerating to
the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days.
Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an
amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called
trapped-wave fetch.  Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can
be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 32.0N  41.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 34.1N  39.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 37.8N  34.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 42.9N  27.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 49.0N  21.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/0000Z 55.0N  10.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

 

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5 am update (still CAT 2 but wind speed have started to drop) -

Quote
512 
WTNT33 KNHC 010840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO HAS WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 39.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 39.7 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Quote
000
WTNT43 KNHC 010841
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the
past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with
tightly curved convective bands.  The upper-level outflow remains
quite well-defined.  The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values
from UW-CIMSS.  Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are
likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large
increase in vertical shear.  Since Lorenzo has such a large
circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however.  In 48
hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a
frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical
cyclone.  The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the
numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane
strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain.  By 96 hours, the
cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving
northeastward near 19 kt.  Continued acceleration on the southeast
and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central
north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two.  In 72 hours
or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while
moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough.
There is still significant track model divergence around this time,
and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model
consensus.  This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which
continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance
envelope.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic.  Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2.  Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days.  These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 33.4N  39.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 35.9N  36.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 40.2N  31.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 45.5N  24.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 51.0N  18.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/0600Z 56.5N   8.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

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8 am interim (maintaining strength/motion) -

Quote
000
WTNT33 KNHC 011141
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
800 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LARGE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 39.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 39.0 West.  Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

114133_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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All known category 5 hurricanes whether by operational, post-analysis or historical reanalysis have made landfall at minimal hurricane intensity or stronger in the Atlantic basin. If Lorenzo makes landfall over Corvo or Flores islands in the Azores archipelago, that streak will continue. Best track has it just missing them for now. A slight deviation east is needed for any official landfall.d7383dc59aa1cc6a2f7a89fa2329dbaa.gif&key=fc58b38dd2d2c2c75507f4e7501c73a5cc7e8b16a6a973b0bf3f4aab48bf50de

97e4ed58bf03340467ee694000e8209f.jpg

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723 
WTNT43 KNHC 011454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores.  The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled.  The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt.  Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday.  The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours.  The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt.  The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period.  The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus.  An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic.  Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1.  Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday.  Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2.  Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe.  These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 35.2N  37.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 38.0N  34.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 42.8N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 48.5N  21.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/1200Z 53.5N  16.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 56.0N   7.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

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Lorenzo looking healthy atm. Clouds have actually cooled near the center and the eye is fully surrounded by deep convection, and seems to be clearing out somewhat on visible loop. What a powerhouse ACE storm! Been a heck of a storm to track.

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1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

All known category 5 hurricanes whether by operational, post-analysis or historical reanalysis have made landfall at minimal hurricane intensity or stronger in the Atlantic basin. If Lorenzo makes landfall over Corvo or Flores islands in the Azores archipelago, that streak will continue. Best track has it just missing them for now. A slight deviation east is needed for any official landfall.d7383dc59aa1cc6a2f7a89fa2329dbaa.gif&key=fc58b38dd2d2c2c75507f4e7501c73a5cc7e8b16a6a973b0bf3f4aab48bf50de

97e4ed58bf03340467ee694000e8209f.jpg

Interesting.  I wonder if there have been cat 4's that did not impact land that weren't investigated closely because there was no threat from them, and if they were investigated more closely, they would have been found to actually be cat 5.  I'm still new to hurricane watching... if there was a Lorenzo-type storm 20 years ago that posed no threat to land, would there have been recon flights into it?  If there were no recon flights, maybe they would have just kept it as a cat 4? 

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There are no records of strong major hurricanes at Lorenzo's location in the satellite era as far as I know.Of course there may have been some prior to the satellite era, but will probably never know how strong they may have been. For example if the 1935 Labor Day hurricane went south of Key West and didn't hit land at that intensity, there is probably no way it would be re-analyzed at that intensity/pressure. It is the only storm in the pre-satellite era listed as having a pressure of <910 mb.

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