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doncat

Autumn 2019 Banter Thread

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the problem with the Sunday into Monday storm, like the ones recently, it is coming from the west not south. That means it will be further north, probably at our lattitude and moving away. So we have to hope it intensifies quickly and moves slowly in order to get any snow, especially for coastal areas.

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One model shows snow 20 miles east of nyc=mood lightened. Other models show snow 20 miles northwest of nyc=“this is over for our subforum”. Sigh. :deadhorse:lol

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I wonder where the people who claim storms wont happen due to “climo” go when south of the nyc metro is modeled to get more snow than us. Its curious.

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Back on October 30, Social Media contained a forecast for an exceptionally cold pattern to lock in.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52511-autumn-2019-banter-thread/?do=findComment&comment=5338034

While there is always high uncertainty in the extended range, the probability of extreme patterns locking in for weeks at a time is relatively low (not zero, but low). Some examples include the exceptionally cold February of 2015 and the historically warm December of 2015.

In general, one needs strong evidence to make such forecasts. At the time, the forecast state of the teleconnections argued against the outcome.

Here's the forecast and the actual outcome:

Nov16-302019-Temp-Anomalies.jpg

11/16-30 temperatures for two select sites: NYC: 43.0° (2.3° below normal); ORD: Actual: 38.3° (0.6° above normal).

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