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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2019 OBS Thread

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12th/13th 'event' has all the ear markings of a mid range threat in a relatively progressive pattern that ends up being one consolidated lo farther N than progged with just a fropa for many. Could be wrong but has alot of resemblance to several systems last winter that never materialized. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12th/13th 'event' has all the ear markings of a mid range threat in a relatively progressive pattern that ends up being one consolidated lo farther N than progged with just a fropa for many. Could be wrong but has alot of resemblance to several systems last winter that never materialized. 

GFS has morphed into just that. Hello winter 2019 you were the worst.

 

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3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Near average snow last season - if you want the worst let's go to the wayback season of 1972-73 when nada - not 1" of snow fell...that was the worst if you are a snow lover

image.png

I think worst in my lifetime was the 97-98 super nino. Only 2.5 inches. Now that is a ratter. I think get around average snowfall this year. I'm thinking active storm pattern but we break lucky once or twice. Throw in a couple front end events and most of us will hit average pretty easily with these big juiced up systems.

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5 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Near average snow last season - if you want the worst let's go to the wayback season of 1972-73 when nada - not 1" of snow fell...that was the worst if you are a snow lover

image.png

Just saying 8-9" imby in an extra long winter for the region that was drawn out Nov-Mar was clearly my worst.

Oh and multiple major arctic outbreaks thrown in too. Locally it was an over flowing septic tank of a winter. It was the most frozen mud one will ever see.

 

 

 

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GFS says game on lol

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

 

I think the coastal hugger or even possibly inland is the favored solution atm. I don't see it being as weak as depicted on the GFS. 

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Dr. No strikes again. Cuts up SE PA so we get nada. I'm leaning that way as well. Think the GFS is OTL. Still with how progressive the flow is and the pieces in play not even sampled yet don't think anything is set in stone. 

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22 hours ago, hurricane1091 said:

I don't think last year was normal snowfall in GloCo. In fact, I never even shoveled if I recall correctly.

We didn't have any big storms.  The largest I measured was 3.9 inches, but the season total here in Washington Township was 19.5 inches.  So, fairly average really.  

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18z GEFS has BN 2m temps thru the entire 384 hr run for the area. At 500mb it also has a respectable look with the WAR/N Atl ridge repeatedly feeding the -AO and NAO region. Aleutian low persists with subsequent ridging along the West coast. All we can ask for at this time as things progress thru late fall. The progression and tendencies of the main teleconnections which affect our apparent weather during the winter month appear favorable for now anyway. 

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Our low this morning of 20.6 broke the old Western Chester County record of 22.0 set back in 1993. The all-time County record was just missed which is the 19.0 from 1976. We also set a new record low max yesterday of just 39.8 besting the old mark of 41.9 from 2007. Of note today is the last day in Chester County that does not have recorded snowfall until April 2nd

image.png.1018a4b1b358480e2acf52736b8e3029.png

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8 hours ago, Newman said:

I think many here would take this and run with it for Tuesday. An inch or 2 followed by frigid cold to keep it around.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

18z NAM continues the theme...maybe a hair more precip hanging back along the wave as the CAA funnels thru. Dont like these setups irt hoping for accumulations ie fropa with a weak wave along it waiting for the cold air to change rain over. Looks like a continuation from last winter on the NAM with a C-2" type....leaning heavily towards the lesser amounts right now. First flakes/white rain looking likely for many in PA/Northern DE anyway.

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Is there a reason low temperatures frequently bust low this fall it's unusual, after crushing it last night getting down to 20F it's already at 32F with a previous forecast of 30F  overnight. 

Btw Trenton broke a record low last night by 5F! That is almost unheard of in this age of warm. Next week an even colder airmass is on the way. This is the kind of too early anomalous cold i was fretting about. On track i see for the coldest first half of November since 1976, following last years record PV cold mid month. I hate to say it but Isotherm is going to nail the winter forecast lol.

 

 

 

 

 

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Liking where the ensembles are taking us towards the end of the month. These are not bad looks at all AND we seem to be seeing some repetition and trends irt the Aleutian Low, the constant beating down/pushback and any SE Ridge, split pattern off the West Coast with no true PAC firehose theme, and of course the AO continues to be in the negative. The 18 GFS op is interesting towards the end also with a true -NAO....but that's an op in fantasyland, but these teleconnections and tendencies could be a heck of alot worse:

 

ao.sprd2-1.gif

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_64.png

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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