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showmethesnow

July Mid/Long Range

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If the GEFS has its say we will be seeing changes leading into mid-month. Below we have the latest day 1-5 500 mbs means map. As you can see ridging is centered in the mid section of the CONUS and dominates a good majority of it. Only off the NE coast and in the west do we see troughing. 

 

500sday1-5.gif.c1de48e10c98d31fade23e7391b66790.gif

 

By mid-month (days 12-16) we see the ridging retrograding westward and troughing setting up shop in the east. Below we see the changes that this would mean for temps in the CONUS.

 

500sday12-16.gif.22bf9d647b9c406c71a9a7a737724576.gif

 

As you can see here (day 1-5) with the ridging being the dominate feature for most of the CONUS we are seeing +temp anomalies for a good portion of the central and eastern US. Only in the west do we see predominate -temp anomalies from the influence of the trough draped down the West coast. So basically, Cool West and Warm East.

 

tempsday1-5.gif.86caad7b63611a76dc4fb6cdd9da4637.gif

 

But now look at the day 12-16 means map. With the ridging retrograding westward we see the +temp anomalies migrating westward as well and we see a cool down in the central/eastern US as we are now seeing troughing. So we are seeing a Cooler East and a Warmer West. Now will we see this flip occur? The GEFS has been pretty steadfast for awhile now and I happen to concur. We have seen a tendency for troughing in the east/NE to be the predominate feature the last few months and I expect that to continue for the near future. Only late Summer into Fall do I expect to see a flip to where ridging sets up in the East and with it the chances for the possibility of noteworthy heat for the seasonal norms.

 

tempsday12-16.gif.34b1ac8aea66dc1a36534622715baab3.gif

 

As far as precip through mid-month. The GEFS has been consistently showing 2-3+ inches through the east in the upcoming 2+ week period. This is not what I would call a drought as some believe we are headed to but neither is it a deluge. It is just pretty typical of what we would expect at this time of year. Now one thing I will point out is the uniform look it has with the precip totals which is misleading. What we will more then likely see are small regions of jackpots (4-5+ inches) and small regions of minimal rainfall (under an inch) and this is due to the nature of how we will see the majority of the precip. Most of the rain we will see will come from popup thunderstorms through this period. And as most are aware these are somewhat localized events and you can see huge discrepancies in just small distances. Now where these will occur throughout the period is anyone's guess as for the most part they will be highly dependent on day to day smaller scale features that will initiate them. Now there is one period of time that we may actually see a somewhat organized system with more uniform rains and that is centered roughly around day 10/11 as the trough begins to set up in the East. 

***Now some may be curious why we are seeing a more uniform look to the precip instead of a more splotchy look with small scale rainfall jackpots and small regions of minimal rainfall areas. There are probably two key reasons for this. One is the fact we are dealing with a global model that has less resolution then meso model so it has a tendency to not pick up as well on smaller scale features and will tend to spread out the precip into adjacent regions that in fact actually see no rain. And two, we are dealing with an ensemble of 15 different runs and with that we will see smoothing occur.

 

770403773_totalprecip.gif.750c967909fd8398a9bd2da8b4c9be0a.gif

 

So if the GEFS is somewhat right for the upcoming 2+ week period what would that mean for our region (mid-Atlantic)? Well we can expect seasonable heat but nothing earth shattering for the next week/week and a half with localized thunder on any given day. We will have some in here complaining about drought while others just 10-20 miles away will be complaining about too much rain. We would then transition to seasonable cool towards the end of the period as the long wave pattern reshuffles. One period to keep an eye on is around day 10/11 as we have the potential for region wide severe/rain as we see a trough dropping in with the potential of an organized system impacting the region.

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

o if the GEFS is somewhat right for the upcoming 2+ week period what would that mean for our region (mid-Atlantic)? Well we can expect seasonable heat but nothing earth shattering for the next week/week and a half with localized thunder on any given day. We will have some complaining about drought while others just 10-20 miles away will be complaining about too much rain. We would then transition to seasonable cool towards the end of the period as the long wave pattern reshuffles. One period to keep an eye on is around day 10/11 as we have the potential for region wide severe/rain as we see a trough dropping in with the potential of an organized system impacting the region.

Ah. like the Old times except a summer version, I love it ! Thanks for posting.

Also, seems the weekend trended a bit wetter on the WPC outlook. 

I have no complaints about rainfall , two verified severe warnings the same day over the weekend,  and over 2 inches of rain has given new life to my cool season tall fescue grass. Before that I would have placed a large bet that the grass as of today would be dry and brown. LOL But it looks very good for July 1 st !  

Weather is remarkable,  you never know sometimes what the weather will bring you, even when you think you do - and that makes this hobby so cool.   

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What does this upcoming pattern change mean for my vacation to SW WV on the 5th? I'm riding quads down at the Hatfield-Mccoy trail system for a week. Might leave on the 4th. Better not be raining every single day, but I do hope to see some towers for a couple days.

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My fear is that by the end of July and into Aug we are locked into a death ridge off the SE coast that crushes the hopes of tropical stuff from forming

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3 hours ago, H2O said:

My fear is that by the end of July and into Aug we are locked into a death ridge off the SE coast that crushes the hopes of tropical stuff from forming

I think we'll have our chances.

I can't wait for the annual GFS fantasy cane day where for 4 magical runs we get that major barreling up the Bay. 

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On 7/1/2019 at 6:44 AM, showmethesnow said:

If the GEFS has its say we will be seeing changes leading into mid-month. Below we have the latest day 1-5 500 mbs means map. As you can see ridging is centered in the mid section of the CONUS and dominates a good majority of it. Only off the NE coast and in the west do we see troughing. 

 

500sday1-5.gif.c1de48e10c98d31fade23e7391b66790.gif

 

By mid-month (days 12-16) we see the ridging retrograding westward and troughing setting up shop in the east. Below we see the changes that this would mean for temps in the CONUS.

 

500sday12-16.gif.22bf9d647b9c406c71a9a7a737724576.gif

 

As you can see here (day 1-5) with the ridging being the dominate feature for most of the CONUS we are seeing +temp anomalies for a good portion of the central and eastern US. Only in the west do we see predominate -temp anomalies from the influence of the trough draped down the West coast. So basically, Cool West and Warm East.

 

tempsday1-5.gif.86caad7b63611a76dc4fb6cdd9da4637.gif

 

But now look at the day 12-16 means map. With the ridging retrograding westward we see the +temp anomalies migrating westward as well and we see a cool down in the central/eastern US as we are now seeing troughing. So we are seeing a Cooler East and a Warmer West. Now will we see this flip occur? The GEFS has been pretty steadfast for awhile now and I happen to concur. We have seen a tendency for troughing in the east/NE to be the predominate feature the last few months and I expect that to continue for the near future. Only late Summer into Fall do I expect to see a flip to where ridging sets up in the East and with it the chances for the possibility of noteworthy heat for the seasonal norms.

 

tempsday12-16.gif.34b1ac8aea66dc1a36534622715baab3.gif

 

As far as precip through mid-month. The GEFS has been consistently showing 2-3+ inches through the east in the upcoming 2+ week period. This is not what I would call a drought as some believe we are headed to but neither is it a deluge. It is just pretty typical of what we would expect at this time of year. Now one thing I will point out is the uniform look it has with the precip totals which is misleading. What we will more then likely see are small regions of jackpots (4-5+ inches) and small regions of minimal rainfall (under an inch) and this is due to the nature of how we will see the majority of the precip. Most of the rain we will see will come from popup thunderstorms through this period. And as most are aware these are somewhat localized events and you can see huge discrepancies in just small distances. Now where these will occur throughout the period is anyone's guess as for the most part they will be highly dependent on day to day smaller scale features that will initiate them. Now there is one period of time that we may actually see a somewhat organized system with more uniform rains and that is centered roughly around day 10/11 as the trough begins to set up in the East. 

***Now some may be curious why we are seeing a more uniform look to the precip instead of a more splotchy look with small scale rainfall jackpots and small regions of minimal rainfall areas. There are probably two key reasons for this. One is the fact we are dealing with a global model that has less resolution then meso model so it has a tendency to not pick up as well on smaller scale features and will tend to spread out the precip into adjacent regions that in fact actually see no rain. And two, we are dealing with an ensemble of 15 different runs and with that we will see smoothing occur.

 

770403773_totalprecip.gif.750c967909fd8398a9bd2da8b4c9be0a.gif

 

So if the GEFS is somewhat right for the upcoming 2+ week period what would that mean for our region (mid-Atlantic)? Well we can expect seasonable heat but nothing earth shattering for the next week/week and a half with localized thunder on any given day. We will have some in here complaining about drought while others just 10-20 miles away will be complaining about too much rain. We would then transition to seasonable cool towards the end of the period as the long wave pattern reshuffles. One period to keep an eye on is around day 10/11 as we have the potential for region wide severe/rain as we see a trough dropping in with the potential of an organized system impacting the region.

Nice job, GEFS.

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8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

A really nice El Nino pattern in the Pacific though long range.. looks good for Winter

Latest CPC ENSO update(today) favors the Nino transitioning to ENSO neutral conditions over the next couple months and persisting for fall and winter.

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11 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Another couple of updates and the prediction will be a weak Nina for winter.

Never really get excited one way or the other with ENSO forecasts until late in the summer heading into fall. Don't know how often the forecasts in the spring and the early summer have been complete busts. 

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15 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Nice job, GEFS.

I was just looking over the anomalies and actually the GEFS did a pretty good job with the 500's and the temp anomalies for the 5 day period at the end of its extended. It didn't pick up the hurricane and the -temp departures that came with it in the deep south but that is to be expected. But the overall pattern it pretty much nailed with the troughing in the east and on the west coast with ridging in the southwest. Can't grab a 5 day on temp profiles for that period of time but just kind of looking through each day I get the impression it may have been a little over done with the heat in the west but it looks to have done a good job with the neg temp anomalies through the central and towards the eastern US. I would probably give it a solid B for it's extended from what I can see.

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I was just looking over the anomalies and actually the GEFS did a pretty good job with the 500's and the temp anomalies for the 5 day period at the end of its extended. It didn't pick up the hurricane and the -temp departures that came with it in the deep south but that is to be expected. But the overall pattern it pretty much nailed with the troughing in the east and on the west coast with ridging in the southwest. Can't grab a 5 day on temp profiles for that period of time but just kind of looking through each day I get the impression it may have been a little over done with the heat in the west but it looks to have done a good job with the neg temp anomalies through the central and towards the eastern US. I would probably give it a solid B for it's extended from what I can see.

Idk, did we actually see normal temps at d12 to d16?  It's been 90F here every day.  Seems we've been +3F during that time frame, which is a solid + departure.

And while I know not to take literally, and some folks did get dumped on,  it showed close to 3 inches of rain for the entire region.... I got about .3".

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3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Idk, did we actually see normal temps at d12 to d16?  It's been 90F here every day.  Seems we've been +3F during that time frame, which is a solid + departure.

And while I know not to take literally, and some folks did get dumped on,  it showed close to 3 inches of rain for the entire region.... I got about .3".

Go to tropical tidbits and glance through the temp anomalies seen for the last few days. Seeing a lot of neg temp anomalies. Don't know what your avg temps are but we are entering the hottest time of the year so though it may seem hot it may still be under temp avgs. As far as precip I did post what I was thinking we would see.

'As far as precip through mid-month. The GEFS has been consistently showing 2-3+ inches through the east in the upcoming 2+ week period. This is not what I would call a drought as some believe we are headed to but neither is it a deluge. It is just pretty typical of what we would expect at this time of year. Now one thing I will point out is the uniform look it has with the precip totals which is misleading. What we will more then likely see are small regions of jackpots (4-5+ inches) and small regions of minimal rainfall (under an inch) and this is due to the nature of how we will see the majority of the precip. Most of the rain we will see will come from popup thunderstorms through this period. And as most are aware these are somewhat localized events and you can see huge discrepancies in just small distances. Now where these will occur throughout the period is anyone's guess as for the most part they will be highly dependent on day to day smaller scale features that will initiate them.'

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Oh, I know, you were spot-on with your assessment of the precip distribution.  I can still be bitter about it though ;)

 

OKV temps (which are below what I've had at MBY):

7/12:  86F

7/13:  88F

7/14:  91F

7/15:  90F 

7/16:  ??

 

According to Accuwx the avg. high is 86F.

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Oh, I know, you were spot-on with your assessment of the precip distribution.  I can still be bitter about it though ;)

 

OKV temps (which are below what I've had at MBY):

7/12:  86F

7/13:  88F

7/14:  91F

7/15:  90F 

7/16:  ??

 

According to Accuwx the avg. high is 86F.

Was in Maine (except for the first day in the 90's temps were pretty much mid 70's into the low 80's, we had some nights where the temps dropped into the mid 50's) so I am pretty much going by what the anomalies maps were showing.  Wonder if the lack of moisture through your localized area may be playing a part in your temps.

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27 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was in Maine (except for the first day in the 90's temps were pretty much mid 70's into the low 80's, we had some nights where the temps dropped into the mid 50's) so I am pretty much going by what the anomalies maps were showing.  Wonder if the lack of moisture through your localized area may be playing a part in your temps.

I was in Maine too, from the 7th to the 12th!  Temps in 40s on the 8th and 9th.  Glorious.  Daytime highs there practically what overnight lows are here.

Localized warmth here quite plausible.  Lucky me.

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17 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Another couple of updates and the prediction will be a weak Nina for winter.

Another wintertime disaster incoming.

5 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Never really get excited one way or the other with ENSO forecasts until late in the summer heading into fall. Don't know how often the forecasts in the spring and the early summer have been complete busts. 

I only track ENSO this time of year for tropical, and things seem to have reversed quite a bit for the fall. I’d rather not see a Nina but warm neutral through fall seems like a solid bet right now.

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Except for watching the death defying exploits of our @WxWatcher007 as he braved that monster called Barry down south I pretty much took a break from the models these last 12 days. It was nice to say the least. But I am back to wasting my time even though it is the dregs of Summer. :arrowhead: Looking over things I would say the GEFS from the beginning of the month did a pretty good job overall in its extended. Well a good job except for our localized desert that @EastCoast NPZ calls home. :D I do hear the cacti are thriving down there. But I also hear that local authorities are considering a tumble weed alert so I do hope NPZ takes precautions and boards up his home.

Looks as if we will see heat building into our region into the weekend but nothing too over the board as we are probably only generally looking at +4-6 over norm through the general metropolitan areas. The true heat relative to average looks to be centered to our north and northeast (upwards of +8-12 above average into NE). It also looks as if the leeward side of the mountains will experience greater anomalies from down sloping then what we will see through the coastal plains/metros. What I did find interesting was that it looks as if Barry had a hand in our building heat into the weekend.

Below we see the 500 mb map from a couple of days ago, the 00z from Monday. What we have is ridging bumping up through the central US and troughing to our NE. This is setting up the flow from the NW through our region. We also see Barry undercutting the central US ridging shortly after it has made landfall. 

500mbMonday.gif.932bb330fd5a1ccdf75c5810b94ecf97.gif

 

Now look what we see at 18z Tuesday. Almost 2 days later and Barry has been stuck in no man's land with very little movement as it has been cut off from the flow. What this slow movement has done has allowed Barry to flatten the flow/ridging above it. What it also has done is force a temporary building of a SE ridge. So instead of a general NW flow through the east we are now seeing a SW flow and the heat and humidity that will come with it.

500mb18ztues.gif.d32efda1bc9ce2eebae9cedd8379030c.gif

 

Looking over the extended GEFS it looks as if after the coming 5 days or so of heat that we will see a reprieve with a cool down beginning mid week next week. And the reasons for this can be seen at 500 mbs below for day 7-11. As you can see we have once again seen the ridging migrate westward into the west with troughing building into the east and with that trough the cooler temps it will bring.

5day500mbday7-11.gif.a1eccaf9d3edfea6266edca7d5498d62.gif

 

Now for those who look at the above and think we are seeing nothing more then a wash, rinse, repeat from my initial post from the beginning of the month I might disagree. There are some notable differences we are seeing with the long wave pattern as the GEFS moves into the end of the extended. Now what we are seeing below on the 12-16 day 500mb mean is that the ridging in the west and the troughing in the east have steadily retrograded westward from the map above. What this is now allowing is a building of ridging off the SE coast.

5day500mbday12-16.gif.e7e536427dc9c6fca2dfbbbdb0003141.gif

 

Now the above was a 5 day mean so it mutes the look somewhat from what we are actually seeing at the very end of the extended which can be seen below.  As you can see we have a much more pronounced SE ridge and a corresponding and fairly significant bump up of heights up the east coast.

day16500mb.gif.615c8fd3f0a4a717b28b9a490082f1a3.gif

 

Now in conjunction with the above 500 mb map look at what we are seeing at 850 mb with both wind and moisture. Notice that we are seeing a southern/southwestern flow through our region. Not only that but we are seeing moisture streaming through the region as it gets picked up off the ocean as the flow revolves under and around the SE ridging.

850mbwindmoisture.gif.35a8093c0154b1977c30abbf43f96cd5.gif

 

So what does the above mean for us? If the GEFS is somewhat correct I do believe it may be advertising a major legit heat wave at the end of the extended or shortly thereafter. Not only that but we would probably also be looking at high humidity where the heat indexes would be scorching. Again, this is contingent on the GEFS being correct with its idea of retrograding the long wave pattern westward. One other thing I would like to point out from the map above are the regions circled on the coast line in Texas/Mexico and down the SE coast/Florida. I feel the pattern being advertised is actually a very good one for seeing US impact from any possible developing Hurricanes. The circled regions are where I would favor any landfall though I wouldn't rule out other portions of the gulf. As far as our region the pattern isn't great as it argues an Hurricane would landfall OBX or southward, anything north of that it argues for a recurve before any impact. But I will say it is a decent look for possible remnants for anything that may impact the SE.

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The possible heat wave with high humidity that I thought the GEFS might be moving towards for early August? It went POOF... GEFS backed down big time on the major feature that was driving it.

 

Below we have a 5 day of the 500 mbs from a week ago. What we are seeing is that we have heights and ridging in the Atlantic that are building westward into the SE. In response we are seeing the trough in the east and ridging in the west retrograding westward in response. Not only that but we are also seeing a backing of the flow which is resulting in a more pronounced eastern trough and western ridge. So basically the GEFS was advertising a moisture laden S/SW flow setting up through our region in early August. Now despite some waffling up to this point (7 days ago), on previous runs the GEFS was generally moving towards stronger heights and ridging in the Atlantic with it getting more aggressive on driving that feature into the SE. Hence my thoughts that the GEFS was hinting fairly strongly at a possible heat wave. But as I said, it all went POOF. 

5day500mbday12-16.gif.5dc8b28a41dbb344405b38b52782f48a.gif

 

This is the latest 5 day run of the GEFS. As you can see if you look in the Atlantic the ridging has backed down considerably. So consequently we are not seeing the eastern trough and western riding retrograding nor are we seeing these features more pronounced due to backing of the flow. So what this is doing is setting up an almost zonal flow through the N CONUS and through our region. So instead of a S/SW flow with the heat/humidity being advertised 7 days ago we are now looking at a generally westerly flow. And with this westerly flow we are looking at more seasonable temps through our region especially on the coastal plain. Areas closer to the mountains may experience slightly above anomalies as a result of down sloping. And this is generally what the GEFS is showing temp wise at this time.

july17500mb.gif.6de1558f08e1b03659b505abeb46c0a3.gif

 

Now to give you are more stark contrast of the changes we have seen I will switch to an Atlantic view and just do a snapshot of 1 period of time.

This is the 00Z from 7 days ago for Aug 2nd. Look at the ridging and higher heights in the Atlantic and its westward extension into the SE. This is resulting in a retrograding eastern trough and ridging in the west. This setup argues for a hot/humid SW/S flow through the region.

atlantic500mbweekago.gif.ac9c04ec5391c02bbbb2ee146dfe10af.gif

 

 

Now compare the above map to what the GEFS is now advertising. A  pretty stark contrast as we are seeing the ridging much weaker and farther east. Thus the trough and the western ridging are not retrograding in the previous example and we are seeing a more zonal/westerly flow and the seasonable temps that come with it.

atlantic500mbtoday.gif.afd8dcef2a3e6ed2f7eaa5dc94db445d.gif

 

As far as the GEFS towards the end of the extended (looking over the last few runs) there are no indications at this time of a major heatwave and actually look fairly seasonable. 

Below we have the 5 day at the end of the extended. Notice the area where we are seeing the ridging in the Atlantic (Black circle) and the extent of the ridging extending northward (red arrow). In this general location it pretty much argues for seasonable temps through our region with fluctuations between slightly above to slightly below temp anomalies at any given time. Now day to day changes with that feature (Atlantic ridging) will determine what we can expect temp wise. Stronger ridging northward and/or a slight adjustment westward of the placement will back the flow somewhat resulting in a sharper trough in the east and the corresponding slightly below temps that would come with a NW flow. Conversely a weaker Atlantic ridge and/or adjustment eastward would result in less backing of the flow with a more zonal/westerly flow and the slightly above temps (especially on the lee side of the mountains) from down-sloping. Now short of seeing this Atlantic ridge much farther westward then currently projected (riding up the east coast) I really don't see any major heat waves in the coming future om the current guidance from the GEFS. But as we just saw for the early August time period things can and do change.

extended5day.gif.b85349e1bb298732875536aaf6dee2a3.gif

 

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