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janetjanet998

TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever

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Lake Cumberland 740.08 and still rising without any new rain

I hope they reset the radars total storm totals after the bright banding is over..I forsee people on social media sites pointed out  the inflated amounts

flash flood warnings north central MS....

for some reason they didn't increase the OH river crests today///

it's nowcast time....I suspect the front will get hung up more then modeled

KMSL already over 3/4 on an inch already

 

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esoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EST Tue Feb 19 2019

Areas affected...Along the southern Tennessee border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192102Z - 200202Z

Summary...Repeating thunderstorms with three-hourly rainfall rates
up to 2 inches will continue a risk of flash flooding into this
evening south from the southern TN border.

A low level boundary has set up across northern MS/AL/GA this
afternoon where Gulf moisture is converging. Regional radars
depict a broken line of moderate to heavy thunderstorms from
southern AR to northern GA with up to moderate stratiform rain
farther north along the TN border. The thunderstorms are shifting
northeast from deep layer southwesterly flow with upwind
propagation vectors directed east. GOES-16 Clean-IR depicts some
cooling tops for the activity moving from AL to GA as well as a
cluster shifting north over central MS.

Observed precipitable water (PW) values between 1.2 and 1.4 inches
across interior sections of the southeast late this afternoon are
around two standard deviations above normal. The highest observed
three-hour rain rates have been around 1.5 inches this afternoon
from gauges in north-central MS and over the Atlanta Metro. This
heaviest rain has been on the northern end of instability with
MUCAPE of 100 to 250 J/Kg where thunderstorms have repeated in
short intervals.

850mb southerly flow of 35 to 50 kt is converging on the low level
boundary and slowly pushing it north. The latest global and hi-res
guidance brings this boundary north across the TN border into the
evening. Three-hour flash flood guidance is generally around 2
inches across this area. Localized areas in the heaviest
thunderstorms could have rainfall exceed these values and cause 
flash flooding into this evening.

 

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From GSP Twitter page, Newfound Gap. 

Can't help but wonder how this may actually increase the slide potential across the higher elevations once the warm are pushes thru and unthaws the ground.

DzzB1-EWwAAQs8R.jpeg

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they have cut back on flows from Cumberland. now down to 25,000 cfs from 29K...will be interesting to see if they increase again once the first slug of precip passes

lake level as of 4pm 740.22. 

for some reason the river gauge on the NWS site is below the TVA gauge ...the TVA page updates in batches and is delayed but you can see the 15 min rises on the NWS river gauge in real time (hr delay) under tabular data

 

not much news out of TVA or the media about the lake level....internet rumblings and rumors last weekend said the Corp expects tto hit 745...but that was before the higher then expected rain that fell over the weekend

 

I can tell you it its going to go higher then 745....epsecially if any training sets up over the watershed..

DWR( CA version of TVA) was always behind the curve on Dduring Oroville and said it wouldn't go over the emergency spillway when it was obvious it was.. DWR calculates inflow into their lakes but taking the known out flow and the change in lake level per hour using a known chart....TVA doesn't do that to at least doesn't makes it public

 

 

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Photo courtesy WPVFD...small section of the shoulder on Hwy 30 has slide off
52333014_10155794821292251_3813859056800497664_n.jpg.3eda20f1aeb82cbb4033480c294d6c73.jpg
I bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I bet as the week goes on we are going to see more rock slides and highway slides. So much water has undercut rock above roads and under roadways that both occurrences I think will tick up.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I work for TDOT. We had a crew parked on the shoulder of hwy 64 today just to respond quickly to small slides. There were already 2 this morning along parksville lake. One was starting to encroach on the westbound lane. There will be more by the end of the week. 

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1.4 at KCHA so far

2.24 KHSV 

there is a precip min north of this from Nashville to lake Cumberland watershed...between the more heavy precip near the MS river

00z  NAM troubling for central TN...in.later periods(may change to a different location)

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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Nashville TN
930 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

...Flash Flood Watch in effect through early Thursday morning
across Middle Tennessee...

.Rain will continue through tonight and into Wednesday as a warm
front lifts northward from the Gulf Coast. Rain will be heavy at
times tonight and into tomorrow. Due to the saturated ground from
previous rainfall, this additional heavy rain could lead to flash
flooding.

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-201200-
/O.CON.KOHX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-190221T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield,
Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina,
Byrdstown, Erin, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson,
Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Linden, Lobelville,
Centerville, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg,
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta,
Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville,
Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg,
and Pulaski
930 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of Middle Tennessee, including the following areas,
  Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee, Cumberland, Davidson,
  De Kalb, Dickson, Fentress, Giles, Grundy, Hickman, Houston,
  Humphreys, Jackson, Lawrence, Lewis, Macon, Marshall, Maury,
  Montgomery, Overton, Perry, Pickett, Putnam, Robertson,
  Rutherford, Smith, Stewart, Sumner, Trousdale, Van Buren,
  Warren, Wayne, White, Williamson, and Wilson.

* Through late Wednesday night

* 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall are expected across the watch area.

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Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200353Z - 200953Z

Summary...An uptick in moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms
overnight, with the potential for repeating rounds, will raise the
risk of flash flooding across portions of the mid-MS, TN, and
lower OH Valleys.

Discussion...Deep mid/upper level trough over the Southwest US and
+140 kt jet downstream has put the lower/mid MS, TN, and lower OH
River Valleys well within the favorable right entrance region this
evening. Southerly flow in the low levels is surging higher
moisture northward, characterized by an increase in PWs, now
ranging from 1.2 to 1.4" per latest TPW blends and RAP
mesoanalysis.

Regional radar imagery shows plenty of elevated showers and
thunderstorms ongoing from the Arklatex region northeastward
toward the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers with a noted cooling
in the IR imagery cloud tops. This is supported by the RAP
analysis of 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE as far north as the TN/KY
border.

Over the next several hours, the low level jet is expected to
increase with 850 mb winds forecast between 50-70 kts by 07-08z.
This should act to further surge the anomalously high PWs (2-3 SD
above the mean) northward. Convection should continue to blossom
over the region and with the expected storm motion (southwest to
northeast) closely aligned with the mean flow, repeating rounds
and training will be possible.

Hi-res models indicate that through about 10z, a swath of 1-2"
with local amounts near 3", will be possible from central/eastern
AR, western TN, northern MS, and southwest KY. This region has
been running very wet the last 14 days (300-400 percent of normal)
so the additional rainfall combined with colder ground surfaces
will lead to enhanced runoff and potential flash flooding.

mcd0054.gif

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Everything still looks on track for a significant mountain wave wind event. It has taken awhile for conditions to become favorable.  Even though VWP indicates 40kt SE winds at 4000ft, the cross barrier flow remains blocked. Camp Creek winds haven't really increased yet and aren't currently blowing from a SE direction.

Conditions become much more favorable in the next few hours. HRRR is showing the enhancement right along the mountains and especially in the Camp Creek area by tomorrow morning. That's not the most reliable wind product, but it usually does a good job of showing areas of mountain wave enhancement (even if wind speed isn't accurate).  The biggest question for me is how trees will hold up in areas with possible 75+ mph wind gusts and saturated soil. 

 

gust_t610m_f13.png

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About 30 minutes after posting that, Camp Creek switched to a SE wind and gusted to 53mph. It should continue to increase.

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22 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

About 30 minutes after posting that, Camp Creek switched to a SE wind and gusted to 53mph. It should continue to increase.

Wind has begun to pick up here as well...temp shot up to 50

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1 hour ago, Math/Met said:

Everything still looks on track for a significant mountain wave wind event. It has taken awhile for conditions to become favorable.  Even though VWP indicates 40kt SE winds at 4000ft, the cross barrier flow remains blocked. Camp Creek winds haven't really increased yet and aren't currently blowing from a SE direction.

Conditions become much more favorable in the next few hours. HRRR is showing the enhancement right along the mountains and especially in the Camp Creek area by tomorrow morning. That's not the most reliable wind product, but it usually does a good job of showing areas of mountain wave enhancement (even if wind speed isn't accurate).  The biggest question for me is how trees will hold up in areas with possible 75+ mph wind gusts and saturated soil. 

 

gust_t610m_f13.png

Already have 73 customers out here in the southern part of Monroe Co.

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