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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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There's a ton of cold air just to our North being transported down through the Northeast.  Stiff NE winds are bringing down some very cold air so..........

925mb.gif?1549922131301

Temps were supposed to get to the low 30's meanwhile we never made it out of the 20's.  I think were looking at a colder storm and a quicker transfer as I doubt that SLP moves all that HP to our North so we'll see.  

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Went to Pulaski today.  Couldn't even tell they got 12 to 18 inches of lake effect a week ago. Could see grass in many areas.

Amazing how much more snow we retain up here in comparison to elevations 800 to 1100 feet lower.

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Has there been a week this winter where we HAVEN'T had to deal with rain?

Models aren't showing much for next week, and I am fine with that. Much rather have sunshine than high dews, fog, rain, melting snow......freezing to a sheet of ice just to repeat again.

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6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well Toronto has 4-5 million people. It's tough to compare to that amount of infrastructure and population. There is less then 4-5 million across all of New York State if you subtract NYC. 

You know that's an interesting point. People in northern Ontario and, indeed much of the rest of Canada, like to laugh at Toronto when 8-10" of snow causes havoc. The thing is that 8" on a city this size has more impact than a foot on a small town in northern Ontario. More people live in Toronto than in all of the Maritime provinces and northern Ontario put together.

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26 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

You know that's an interesting point. People in northern Ontario and, indeed much of the rest of Canada, like to laugh at Toronto when 8-10" of snow causes havoc. The thing is that 8" on a city this size has more impact than a foot on a small town in northern Ontario. More people live in Toronto than in all of the Maritime provinces and northern Ontario put together.

Yea I can't imagine the mess a city like Toronto would be. Buffalo is a big enough shit show with roads as it is.

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Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Imagine Montreal after a 16" snowfall.

When I go to the F1 race I'll make sure to. Have always wanted to see Montreal so pretty excited to finally be taking the trip. 

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Pretty fascinating event in Hawaii today with the first snow in recorded history observed on Maui.  I just started looking at model runs and they are impressive to say the least.  I forget how ridiculous storms are in the pacific.  A seemingly endless supply of huge explosive lows strengthening to 950mb, just one after another! 

The storm that hit hawaii is interesting.  Two sfc lows phase and cutoff taking a chunk of very cold air with them.  The 540 line shows us a few times which is wild.  The storm also just sits there for days.  Can only imagine the rains in the mountains.  I've been to hawaii and its no joke on a regular day....

191mph ridge line winds
60 foot waves
Snow at 6300 feet.

Great stuff!

gfs_z500_mslp_npac_fh0-144.thumb.gif.0493da765d2d5a4931b28e6ddc67a763.gif

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Our biggest concern right now should be the massive H700 Dry-Slot thats gonna engulf all of W-CNY after the snow thump and

2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

E6F61C96-4BC3-4653-8132-6AD724EFC796.thumb.jpeg.8997405014f3f1c052e425f80ff1acee.jpeg

Decent map.

 

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Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. 

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Tomorrow will be a quick 4"-6"+ and thats it, flip back to snow around 2 am and catch some preicp from the developing coastal..

Then we see what WED holds .

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

Actually Channel 9 has all but an inch or so falling with the front end thump. They’re only calling for an inch or so on Wednesday from snow showers in the Syracuse area. 

Yeah their dead wrong about that one for sure!

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Obviously should be a little different up here..

NWS going with 5"-11" through tues night..

 

Wednesday
Snow showers. High near 34. Southwest wind 7 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow after 2am. Low around 22. West wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Thursday
Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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12K pops a real nice band at the end of the run which is 10PM Wed which will probably drop a bit further South as a secondary arctic front comes through.

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41.png

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Right!?!? How is that possible? This GD storm track is paved in stone. Jesus

its more of an orientation of the HP or shall I say the position.  If all of these LP's were riding ahead of these HP's then we'd be rejoicing right now but its Breaking Bad for us as usual!

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows.

And the NAM is one of the better runs for ROC.  Gives us more of the glancing blow in regards to rain, the scenario Tim mentioned.  Overall its Just such a sketchy storm track and transfer.  Lots of ways for it to go wrong and few to go right  

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16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The NAM runs came in looking awful for the Tug tomorrow. This winter blows.

But for reference, that looks like an amazing hit from someone in my position.  I think you get an easy foot out of that, probably more.  

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

But for reference, that looks like an amazing hit from someone in my position.  I think you get an easy foot out of that, probably more.  

Thanks. I hope you're right. Hopefully you guys can end getting the better amounts too. I think your area and the rest of the valley area around there only had that one good storm this season?

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28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Thanks. I hope you're right. Hopefully you guys can end getting the better amounts too. I think your area and the rest of the valley area around there only had that one good storm this season?

Only 2 storms with 8 or more inches in my backyard.  11/15/18 and 1/19/19.  Definitely a slow season.  And now the endless cutters.  I was actually looking up flights out west to tahoe or Washington today.   I need to salvage this snowboarding season.  

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