Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, WNash said:

Those reports capture it pretty well. Biggest snows were south and east of a line from just north of the galleria to just north of the airport to roughly Maple and Transit to Clarence Center. I have to drive out to Klein and Transit this afternoon so I can try to verify where the cutoff of that band is.

Man I thought I measured short of that but I did miss the evening measurement so that could be why I was @ 12.6" I am right at maple and transit

Link to comment
Share on other sites

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
  4 to 8 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A more widespread area of light snow will develop across Western NY
by late tonight, and spread eastward across the entire area Sunday
morning. It will still be cold enough ahead of this system for some
modest lake enhancement northeast of the lakes, followed by
orographic enhancement in the westerly flow behind the system. This
system will produce at least some snow in all areas, but amounts
will vary considerably based on location. For the Niagara Frontier
and Western Southern Tier expect a period of snow between 2 am and
10 am to drop 2-3 inches of snow. The Lower Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes will not benefit from lake or orographic
enhancement, with generally an inch or less of snow late tonight
into Sunday morning. The most snow will be east of Lake Ontario
where there will be steady snow Sunday with the low Sunday morning,
followed by a period of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon and early
evening. There will be some light lake effect snow east of Lake
Erie, but it will be more significant off Lake Ontario where there
is a longer fetch and moisture from Lake Huron. The forecast uses a
mesoscale guidance weighted blend of model guidance in order to
capture these features. Also, BUFKIT shows the best lift in a
favorable temperature range for dendritic snow growth, suggesting it
will be a rather fluffy snow with 15:1 ratios or greater.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Man I thought I measured short of that but I did miss the evening measurement so that could be why I was @ 12.6" I am right at maple and transit

I drove out to Clarence Center and back. There's sublimation and compaction since yesterday - the 6.5" we had in NE Buffalo looks more like 5" this afternoon. But I went on Kensington to Main, then up to UB North, then out to Transit on North French, then down to Main. It was consistent 5” to 9” for basically all of that route. Down Transit, it was also about 8-9” until near Eastern Hills Mall, then it went to maybe 15”. The biggest cutoff was at ECC. On the ECC campus near Werle, I measured 18” - but on the north part of ECC near Main, I measured 8”. So it’s pretty clear the band set up from the airport along and above Werle and out to roughly Main and Transit. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now this is a winter week..

Sunday
Snow before 4pm, then snow showers likely between 4pm and 5pm, then snow after 5pm. High near 28. Southeast wind 15 to 18 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 1am. Low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -5. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -5. Northeast wind 5 to 9 mph.
Monday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 17. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
Snow. High near 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night
Snow showers. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday
Occasional snow. High near 11. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday Night
Occasional snow. Low around -3. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Thursday
Snow likely. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 9. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Thursday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 12. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -2. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Early thoughts on the LES potential Tuesday-Thursday?

Increasingly unstably southwesterly flow follows the system into
midweek, which looks to result in much more unstable profiles and
additional gusty and snowy lake effect conditions beyond Tuesday as
well.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The latest medium range models and ensembles continuing to advertise
a true arctic blast Wednesday into Friday. 850 mb temperatures
nearing -30C will cover much of the area through this time frame.
Certainly record cold is a possibility within this airmass. Daytime
high temperatures only in the single digits with overnight lows
below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will certainly
produce dangerously cold wind chills for an extended period.
Additionally, this airmass will certainly bring the potential for
lake effect snow downwind of the lakes, although with an airmass
this cold and dry it may limit really significant accumulations. The
greater concern may be the potential for significant blowing and
drifting with gusty winds and a fine, powdery snow in this frigid
airmass.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


These are the top 24 hour snowfalls. So some multi day events may not be included... not sure exactly how we landed but this event should make the list...
ddf48ffc348e5d70dbf6f86935563e60.jpg


.

 

It's been 13 years since we've made that list. Unreal. It's been a southtown special for the last decade. 

Actually that list is 8 years old. ^_^

There's been quite a few more added to that list. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Too add to BUFF

Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook

An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the
region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this
period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is
possible east of Lake Ontario during this period. Strong gusty winds
will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow
along with poor visibility.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Severe winter conditons expected during this period...

While the exact details on potential lake effect snow accumulations
during this period still need to be worked out, predictability
remains very high on the outbreak of a significant intrusion of
arctic air and potential record cold during the mid to late week
period.

The polar low making its way down from central Canada will set up a
487 dm circulation at 500 mb centered near Lake Superior Wednesday
morning eventually rotating into Quebec Thursday and Friday. The
resulting low level thermal trough is shown by nearly all medium
range models to have 850 mb temperature down to near -30C
during the peak of the outbreak from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning. Record cold is certainly a possibility. Daytime
high temperatures only in the single digits with overnight lows
below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will certainly
produce very dangerous wind chills for an extended period with
extreme winds chills of -20F to -40F.

As stated above, the finer details of the lake effect snow
impacts should come into better focus as we get closer. While
accumulating snow looks likely, a greater concern may be the
potential for significant blowing and drifting with gusty winds
and a fine, powdery snow in this frigid airmass.

Some moderation is expected Friday and especially Saturday as
the polar low retreats northward.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If your ever looking for a place just outside the tug , i would recommend the "tailwater lodge Altmar, tapestry collection by Hilton"..

Great food (restaurant on site) and reasonably priced..

10 min west your in pulaski/I-81 for more food/shopping options, 5-10 miles east and your in the sothern tug..

Image result for tailwater lodge water

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...