2019 ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's really hard to have a -PNA in El Nino like this, although it can happen like in 65-66. I think it speaks volumes about the long term PDO state and longer term ENSO state, which is probably closer to 0.0 vs the global average of +0.3. Subsurface trends continue to suggest that this is a Weak-Moderate El Nino (although subsurface looks weak now I think that is because of SOI/MJO, which cuts into but is not necessarily the predominant state). 

[raindancewx]

On 2/4/2019 at 5:41 PM, raindancewx said:

 

If the February heat content for 100W-180W comes in around +0.9 - and the graphic implies it might - since a warm subsurface wave seems to be moving East - you get some real interesting Marches. This blend actually looks a lot like the blend I am using in my Spring Forecast nationally (releasing it around 2/10), although I expect the cold to be more severe in the middle of the US, with warmer conditions on both coasts, especially the East, given the SOI (Dec), NAO (Oct), prior ENSO event (DJF 2017-18), and low solar all favoring Eastern warmth.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb
1982	1.45	0.05	-0.81
1989	0.64	0.78	1.08
1989	0.64	0.78	1.08
1989	0.64	0.78	1.08
2004	0.79	0.52	0.59
2009	1.36	1.14	1.24
2009	1.36	1.14	1.24
2009	1.36	1.14	1.24
2009	1.36	1.14	1.24
Blend	1.07	0.83	0.89
2018	1.06	0.77	0.90

[raindancewx]

The SOI looks like it will see an extended negative period starting in a few days if the ECMWF is right. Maybe a week or more. The most recent reading was a good sign.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

[raindancewx]

NOAA had the PDO value dropping off again in January, consistent with US temps in February so far.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/  -0.29 in January 2019. Down from December.

[raindancewx]

The ECMWF has trended to El Nino strengthening at the surface in March and April. Every member of the plume has El Nino conditions in March, and all but one have it continuing in April too.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'd still call it an El Nino. 

[raindancewx]

I went with a blend of 1941-42, 1957-58, 1969-70, 1974-75, 1998-99, 2004-05, 2009-10, 2014-15 for Spring 2019 in my outlook linked below. 

 https://t.co/sYaPDu7ZLU

The SOI still looks pretty negative for a while, and it has been negative for days. The local NWS is getting excited about the raging Pacific jet visiting the SW and all the snow we may/should get.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
10 Feb 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-8.26	-0.15	2.13
9 Feb 2019	1011.34	1007.10	-2.40	0.20	2.22
8 Feb 2019	1010.44	1007.85	-10.33	0.04	2.37
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

The Euro has this for the next five days, and then the following five days. 

The MJO has been stuck in 6/7 for a while. It is forecast to get to the phase 1/2 transition roughly on 3/1. That transition is fairly similar to Feb-Mar 1986, 1999 and 2005 among recent years. 

 

[roardog]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The ECMWF has trended to El Nino strengthening at the surface in March and April. Every member of the plume has El Nino conditions in March, and all but one have it continuing in April too.

Do you think Nino again next Winter?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

53 minutes ago, roardog said:

Do you think Nino again next Winter?

It will be hard to do La Nina. The Earths pattern is in opposite, rotational speed index I call it. El Nino or Neutral. 

[raindancewx]

The winters after low solar El Ninos since 1930 are pretty interesting -

1931, 1954, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1987, 1995, 2007, 2010. Just based on that list I'd say lower than normal chance of an El Nino, but who knows? You could throw in 2016, 2005 and 1998 as borderline cases.

I kind of lean toward something like 1992, where El Nino conditions persist fairly long after winter, but the following winter is Neutral.

The look right now (and really, this is too detailed, ONI/SST stuff is better for months not days) is a bit like early 2005 in an SST sense. February 2005 had like a -30 SOI, so March 2005 won't show up in 2019 with the same severity. Given a battle between the +SOI in December and -SOI in February, I think the +SOI wins in the East and it is warm, but in the West the -SOI wins. We'll see though. If you look at March/April 2005, the Nino 3.4 SSTs look more like a Nino again than the map below, which is what I expect going by the subsurface.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

A lot of convection over ENSO.

This is actually the strongest El Nino-OLR push of the entire El Nino event. 

Second strongest +subsurface wave, only October was greater. 

I'm surprised the Pacific is so -PNA right now. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

A lot of convection over ENSO.

This is actually the strongest El Nino-OLR push of the entire El Nino event. 

Second strongest +subsurface wave, only October was greater. 

I'm surprised the Pacific is so -PNA right now. 

That -PNA may not last for long when the convection pushes past the Dateline. 

[raindancewx]

The weeklies show a recovery too. Sorry for the delay, at a work party. Wings and pizza.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8

[raindancewx]

Here are some highs for 12/1-2/11 nationally, and what my analogs had in () for the same period. The years I used were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95 (x2), 2006-07

Atlanta - 56.5F (53.5F)

Albuquerque - 47.7F (48.4F)

Boston - 41.6F (39.6F)

Bismarck - 24.3F (25.9F)

Jacksonville - 68.0F (64.9F)

Philadelphia - 44.0F (42.6F)

Seattle - 48.3F (47.7F)

St. Louis - 43.2F (41.1F)

Spatially, with what February seems to be doing, this winter may end up resembling something like a diet 1972-73, with a warmer South. We'll have to see. It certainly isn't as cold as 1972-73 in the West, but if you added 3F everywhere, it's not terrible. Highs to date are generally warm east of the Mississippi winter to date, and cold in the West.

The SOI has been really cranking lately, by the way. On the ECMWF it looks very negative to slightly negative for each of the next ten days. A reading under -8 for February (El Nino territory again) looks fairly likely.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
12 Feb 2019	1010.38	1010.50	-23.34	-1.07	1.64
11 Feb 2019	1011.48	1010.70	-19.02	-0.59	1.89
10 Feb 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-8.26	-0.15	2.13
9 Feb 2019	1011.34	1007.10	-2.40	0.20	2.22
8 Feb 2019	1010.44	1007.85	-10.33	0.04	2.37
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

[raindancewx]

NOAA says this is now an official El Nino. This is the same time frame as when the 2014-15 El Nino was declared - they wait until the conditions persist/couple.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-announces-arrival-of-el-nino

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Surprising, they are probably going with re-development. 

[raindancewx]

I mentioned above that I like 1974-75 as an analog for Spring, even though it is a La Nina. Well...it's pretty close for February so far. It had the big +SOI in December and a slightly -SOI in January. It was a La Nina, but it was much warmer in Nino 3.4 in 1974-75 than in 1973-74, just like this year is much warmer than Nino 3.4. I went back 100 years, and 1974-75 is the closest precipitation match objectively to 2018-19 in Albuquerque for July-January. Big +NAO in October 1974 was like October 2018 too.

[raindancewx]

New Jamstec is out. It has a bit of a Nino 3.4 rebound before the El Nino falls apart in Summer.

US Trended much warmer for Spring.

The Jamstec also shows that this El Nino has become less and less of a Modoki event over time.

[andyhb]

@raindancewx I saw you post the TWC spring outlook elsewhere and am curious as to why you don’t agree with them for May/what your general thoughts for May are (for obvious reasons).

[raindancewx]

The El Nino subsurface looks pretty healthy to me right now. Also, the SOI (2/1-2/16) is down to -9.5 or so in February now. That looks to continue for at least a few more days on the ECMWF. Remember, Nino 3.4 is 120W-170W. 

@andyhb My stuff only works if I get the inputs into my regressions right, and it tends to work best in Winter & Summer, so this is all fairly low confidence, but a big +NAO in December favors a warm Northwest in May, at fairly high correlations in some locations. 

The January NAO+ also favors cold in the center of the US, which is what I went with in my forecast. I kind of have a ring of warmth (West Coast, South, East) wrapped around a cold core in the Plains. I think generally the further you are away from Nebraska, the warmer it will be in May for location specific anomalies.

The NAO correlation map is also consistent with my expectations for New Mexico - we're likely to have a cold high relative to 1931-32 to 2017-18 averages in Albuquerque for every month from at least October to February (and I think we'll get March & April too) but when we have a prolonged period of cold highs here it tends to break in late May with a big heat wave that wipes out the cold and leaves May about average. May tends to be very dry/hot in the Southwest if Nov-Jan is dry...and it was quite dry in AZ, with less dryness in NM/CA. I think its a pretty warm Spring in the East generally. Last year, we had the driest ever Nov-Jan (0.03") in Albuquerque and May was incredibly hot. Recent very cold Mays in NM, like 2007 and 2015 were actually very wet in Nov-Jan 2006-07 and 2014-15. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii

 

[raindancewx]

The SOI is down to near -11 in February and looks pretty negative for the next five days at least. It's actually very difficult to get an SOI blend historically that went +9, -2, -10 for Dec, Jan, Feb respectively. Simplest close blend I found was 1961-62, 1969-70 (x3), 2011-12. These SOI blends tend to work for temps. If February ends up at -20 or +5 somehow, will of course need to change it.

https://beta.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

SOI	Dec	Jan	Feb
1961	12.5	16.5	-5.2
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
2011	22.2	9.6	0.8
Mean	8.3	-1.3	-8.1
2018	9.1	-2.1	-10.0

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

^ I also got the warm SE Canada signal in analogs using -PNA/El Nino conditions. 

The subsurface is still Weak El Nino but the globe is no longer +AAM. 

[raindancewx]

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
18 Feb 2019	1006.97	1009.70	-35.88	-6.21	0.65
17 Feb 2019	1009.02	1010.50	-29.88	-4.72	1.12
16 Feb 2019	1010.66	1011.10	-24.88	-3.35	1.37
15 Feb 2019	1012.06	1010.15	-13.59	-2.47	1.44
14 Feb 2019	1010.95	1010.30	-19.64	-2.26	1.32
13 Feb 2019	1010.29	1010.80	-25.22	-1.77	1.38
12 Feb 2019	1010.38	1010.50	-23.34	-1.07	1.64
11 Feb 2019	1011.48	1010.70	-19.02	-0.59	1.89
10 Feb 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-8.26	-0.15	2.13
9 Feb 2019	1011.34	1007.10	-2.40	0.20	2.22
8 Feb 2019	1010.44	1007.85	-10.33	0.04	2.37
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
18 Feb 2019	1006.97	1009.70	-35.88	-6.21	0.65
17 Feb 2019	1009.02	1010.50	-29.88	-4.72	1.12
16 Feb 2019	1010.66	1011.10	-24.88	-3.35	1.37
15 Feb 2019	1012.06	1010.15	-13.59	-2.47	1.44
14 Feb 2019	1010.95	1010.30	-19.64	-2.26	1.32
13 Feb 2019	1010.29	1010.80	-25.22	-1.77	1.38
12 Feb 2019	1010.38	1010.50	-23.34	-1.07	1.64
11 Feb 2019	1011.48	1010.70	-19.02	-0.59	1.89
10 Feb 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-8.26	-0.15	2.13
9 Feb 2019	1011.34	1007.10	-2.40	0.20	2.22
8 Feb 2019	1010.44	1007.85	-10.33	0.04	2.37
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

Thanks for all the great information! Do you have any early thoughts on the upcoming summer?

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9

As Chuck's method implied, the subsurface was showing warmth below Nino 3/3.4. That warmth has been slowly returning to the surface, so the anomalies are getting more positive, even accounting for the warming in Nino 3/3.4 that happens in February. The weekly ENSO update for Summer isn't out because it is a federal holiday.

@Great Snow 1717 I have some ideas for June but not beyond that. We tend to have (for us) unusual cold/wetness in June in the SW somewhat more frequently after a dry Nov-Jan. A strong SW US Monsoon is weakly correlated to the +PDO, low Nov-Apr precipitation prior to Summer, and low solar activity. The PDO and Nov-Apr precip are pretty neutral so I don't see a particularly wet or dry Summer here, but the sun is still favorable.

 

[raindancewx]

Two hour delay at work today since it is snowing and 21F, so can post this. SOI was was -43.6 for 2/19, a huge value.

Subsurface heat for February is still increasing in the 100W-180W zone. I think maybe +1.0 is a good estimate for February now.

[LibertyBell]

On 2/18/2019 at 1:45 AM, raindancewx said:

Just your regular, run of the mill...-36 daily SOI? Lowest daily value since February 2017. SOI is down to -12 for February now. Still looks pretty negative for the next few days at least. I think it maybe gets as low as -15 by 2/20 or 2/22 and then rises back to -12, +/-4 by the end of the month.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
18 Feb 2019	1006.97	1009.70	-35.88	-6.21	0.65
17 Feb 2019	1009.02	1010.50	-29.88	-4.72	1.12
16 Feb 2019	1010.66	1011.10	-24.88	-3.35	1.37
15 Feb 2019	1012.06	1010.15	-13.59	-2.47	1.44
14 Feb 2019	1010.95	1010.30	-19.64	-2.26	1.32
13 Feb 2019	1010.29	1010.80	-25.22	-1.77	1.38
12 Feb 2019	1010.38	1010.50	-23.34	-1.07	1.64
11 Feb 2019	1011.48	1010.70	-19.02	-0.59	1.89
10 Feb 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-8.26	-0.15	2.13
9 Feb 2019	1011.34	1007.10	-2.40	0.20	2.22
8 Feb 2019	1010.44	1007.85	-10.33	0.04	2.37
7 Feb 2019	1010.46	1007.30	-7.59	0.30	2.58
6 Feb 2019	1011.21	1006.15	1.54	0.56	2.73
5 Feb 2019	1011.44	1006.60	0.48	0.36	2.70
4 Feb 2019	1010.90	1006.35	-0.91	0.06	2.68
3 Feb 2019	1010.19	1005.40	0.24	-0.53	2.69
2 Feb 2019	1010.59	1006.65	-3.84	-1.22	2.66
1 Feb 2019	1011.89	1005.70	6.96	-1.52	2.65

Going to give credit to Chris (Blue Wave) for pointing this out, but have you noticed the sharp SOI drops we have had the last three Februarys?

 

[raindancewx]

The February SOI has actually been at least slightly below 0 each year since 2013.

The SOI is going to be kind of wild the next few days, there is a Typhoon east of Australia that should briefly lower pressures by Darwin while Tahiti sees a rise. The SOI still looks negative for 4-5 of the next 7 days on the ECMWF but it is going to pop up briefly. If/when it does, and then it pops down, there should be some kind of reaction in the pattern globally.

The CFS should enter its brief period of usefulness around 2/25 in forecasting March. Will be curious to see what it says. If the SOI finishes below -12 in February will probably need to change the blend from above.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I posted this before, February SOI actually has an inverse correlation to the next years ENSO state. 

[raindancewx]

This is just my hunch, but I think the European idea that the MJO wave dies in phase 3 may be right. The subsurface analogs (assuming 100-180W comes in around +1.0 in February as it looks right now) implies the MJO gets to phases 7/8/1 in March, but the models have it starting in 2/3. The SOI analogs look a lot closer to the models and current pattern, but that would change if the wave dies in phase 3 and then re-emerges in 6 later in the month. Basically, I think both of these methods below will have some merit in March, but the one on the right is first and may persist longer. The CFS kind of looks like it is a blend of the two ideas. Will be interesting to see what it has in a few days, as it does have some skill late in the month. Of course this may all have to change if the SOI finishes -15 or something or if the subsurface comes in much warmer in February.