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On topic please. 

All the models have +neutral or El Nino. I think we are in kind of a phase since-2013 where warm is the norm. SOI and NOI are plunging right now. Usually in a developing La Nina you would see some well defined SSTs in the northern latitudes right now, (not what's happening). 

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For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule.

Anyway, weeklies.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8

People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

wNCHP4d.png

LKCxneY.png

 

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Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

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16 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Gradual thinning of the warmth at depth overall since October? The SOI has a shot at a huge month over month drop from December, which does, sometimes, tie into big -NAO periods in the US. Last one being March 2018 when the SOI dropped by close to 20 points from Feb to Mar. Years with 20 point drops in winter include favorites like 1976. The SOI is current below -10 in January but that's already up a lot from earlier in the month. December was over +9.

So you taking 97-98 off the plate?

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Given the subsurface similarities to Dec 1997 (+1.1 is actually warmer for this year than 1997 for 100-180W) I don't think its too surprising we have somewhat similar weather so far. At a seasonal level the long-term phases of the oscillations matter, but at the sub-seasonal stuff, the MJO beats everything, so 1997-98 with similar MJO progression hasn't been bad as an analog since November. Jan 1998 is almost the same magnitude MJO in phase 8 on 1/8 as today is according to the BOM site MJO archives. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

I'm looking very hard at the El Nino years following a major hit on the Gulf Coast for March. For whatever reason you tend to get extreme Marches after that happens. You can see it last year after Harvey as an example. The five El Nino Springs after a Gulf Coast hurricane hit include 1941-42, 1957-58, 1965-66, 1969-70, 2004-05. A lot of crazy cold in unusual patterns in those years. Look at March 1958 as an example, which hasn't been super dissimilar to weather lately. I sincerely doubt the Plains will have more than 2-3 months of extreme warmth in a row like they seem to be. Some kind of correction will come. I'd go less extreme than this, but these type of years seem clustered after the major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico, especially in an El Nino. 1966, after Betsy is kind of the warm March counter example because severe cold came earlier than in the other years. I don't have a Spring Outlook yet, but I do think the Plains are going to pay for their warmth, that seems almost inevitable, it's just where it spreads.

YAtMCqe.png

 

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Here is a subsurface comparison to 2006-07, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at this time. The rapid collapse in 2007 and 2016 was fairly evident by now. Lots more red...but also blue. Can't get a good animation for 2009-10 for the same time period, but the collapse began in March 2010 that year.

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies AnimationEquatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies AnimationEquatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

 

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The CPC ONI stuff is up, but hasn't been updated for December yet. Our friends at BOM, against 1961-1990, had Nino 3.4 at +0.8C, which is about 27.2C as there are a lot of potent La Ninas in that period (1988, etc). They probably are using a different data set than NOAA/CPC anyway. The December look is fairly east-based on their map.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Sea-surface

20190108.ssta_pacific_monthly.png

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New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

RbDU1rp.png

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These are the top SOI matches for July 2018 to January 2019, assuming January finishes around -8, like it is for 1/1-1/13. 1932, 1957, 1969 all had major hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico. Good to see things from those years showing up given what I think March may do.

SOI Monthly July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Match
2018 1.8 -6.7 -8.5 2.6 0.6 9.2 -8.0 0.00
2003 3.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.9 -2.4 9.0 -12.8 27.30
1948 0.8 -4.0 -7.1 6.6 4.2 -6.8 -7.9 28.80
1954 3.3 9.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 11.5 -5.5 35.30
1932 1.1 4.9 -8.3 -4.1 -4.6 1.8 -11.8 35.60
1969 -6.4 -4.0 -10.0 -11.6 -0.2 2.3 -10.8 37.10
1957 1.4 -8.2 -9.4 -0.3 -11.0 -4.3 -17.5 40.30

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Roughly half way through Dec-Feb, the weeklies have Nino 3.4 at an average of 27.4C.
Against 1951-2010, this is +0.9C or so for that period. 

The zones West of Nino 1.2 have cooled relatively fast to Nino 3.4 over the past six weeks, with Nino 4 in
particular cooling from near record levels. 
You can see relative to 2014-15 in Dec-Jan, the event is much more of a basin-wide event than 2014-15 was.
2002-03 and 2009-2010 were stronger and far more centered to the West by this time.
2006-07 was stronger at this week, but collapsed very quickly after, which doesn't seem likely.

Anyway, new Jamstec should be out soon, and eventually NOAA/CPC will update the monthly Nino 3.4 data.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 09DEC2009     22.7 0.2     26.6 1.5     28.2 1.7     29.6 1.1
 16DEC2009     22.6-0.2     26.7 1.5     28.3 1.8     29.7 1.2
 23DEC2009     23.7 0.5     26.8 1.5     28.4 1.9     29.7 1.3
 30DEC2009     24.3 0.7     26.7 1.4     28.3 1.7     29.6 1.2
 06JAN2010     24.3 0.4     26.7 1.2     28.3 1.7     29.7 1.3
 06DEC2006     22.9 0.5     26.1 1.1     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.1
 13DEC2006     22.9 0.2     26.3 1.2     27.8 1.2     29.5 1.0
 20DEC2006     23.7 0.6     26.5 1.3     27.7 1.2     29.4 1.0
 27DEC2006     24.0 0.6     26.6 1.3     27.7 1.1     29.4 1.0
 03JAN2007     24.3 0.5     26.4 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.2 0.8
 10JAN2007     24.9 0.7     26.7 1.1     27.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
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The subsurface numbers for January (300m down, 100W-180W) look like they'll come in around +0.7. A similar transition for Nov-Dec-Jan would be these years blended as a guideline for February.

100-180W  Nov Dec Jan
1979 1.06 0.92 0.83
1979 1.06 0.92 0.83
1982 1.92 1.45 0.05
1991 1.22 1.71 1.57
1994 1.16 0.80 0.51
2002 1.58 0.74 0.27
2009 1.75 1.36 1.14
2014 0.90 0.54 0.15
Mean 1.33 1.06 0.67
2018 1.35 1.06 0.70

fPzz4XL.png

Here is a look at what those years looked like in February nationally.

A lot of the the years with very cold February temps in the US are El Nino with a big collapse in the January subsurface to below El Nino thresholds (+0.5) (2002-03, 2006-07 in the Midwest, 2014-15). Slower fall offs, like this year tend to be less extreme for cold and heat.

Big positive SOI Decembers (like the +9.1 in Dec 2018) tend to precede a warm February in the South, and hold down temps on the West Coast, so with the SOI blended in, I think the core of the cold in February is likely over Missouri, rather than say Ohio or New York. With the analog site down, I'm just guessing what the blend looks like, but it seems like a near normal WA/OR/SE US, cold centered in Missouri is what I like for February. Warmth is in the interior NW. It's kind of a warm West / cold East pattern turned 45 degrees to the right from the SOI if that makes any sense since the +SOI December should not impact the SW too much, but will warm up the SE and cool off the NW.

tpV9jhC.png

Given how the years looked, and the SOI in December, Feb 1983, 1992, 2015 as a simpler blend is probably approximately right. Again, ESRL is down, can't graph these, so I am guessing on the exact look of the blends.

oqm8Tub.png

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On 1/10/2019 at 7:49 PM, raindancewx said:

New Euro run for Nino 3.4 has El Nino most likely to continue through May. Weak conditions are possible as late as June or July though if this run is right. Anything resembling the current run would make the strong El Ninos analogs for Spring, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2015 were all dead by May. 1982, 1986, 1997, 2014, the strongest and two-year events, not so much.

RbDU1rp.png

I think you mean 2015 (going into 2014) which was a developing super, do you think next winter we'll have something like that?

Regardless, February 83, February 2015, were both big snowfall months in the NE.  And just like 82-83, the super el nino of 2015-16 had a historic event, but it was in late January not February.  I got a 31 inch snowstorm that month.

 

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My hunch is this event just weakens slowly for having a relatively low peak, but we don't have another El Nino next year. My point above is that the years like 2003, 2007, 2010, 2015 (before it redeveloped later in March) all weakened very rapidly in January or February at the subsurface and then the pattern went nuts for the NE. January doesn't seem to be showing rapid weakening. February might, but Tropical Tidbits has been showing a recovery in most zones lately, after the extended -SOI burst earlier in the month (and more -SOI days look likely by 1/31 too). The event still kind of looks like an East-Central / Basin Wide hybrid, with the core of the heat near 120W, oscillating east/west of that area at times but never too far.

paFENS0.png

The subsurface is still weakening I think, but its not dead yet like 2006-07 or 2002-03, or clearly moving that way like 2015-16. 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomalies Animation

To me, this pattern has been driven as much by the transition from the La Nina last year as the El Nino this year. The El Ninos after La Ninas tend to be colder in the West, and that has shown up this year.

5ub20Yq.png

The absence of a canonical positive PDO (waters by Japan still look like a -PDO, and the blob by Alaska is cooling, not warming since Fall), and the +SOI in December are all examples of things that wouldn't have been there if we had transitioned from a Neutral or Modoki La Nina into this El Nino instead of from an East-based La Nina that at times (Jan 2018) had the coldest waters by Peru in decades.

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