USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here are the clouds, they are stratocumulus clouds invading the area just east of HYA as winds turn more northerly from 850mb to the surface towards the evening. Clouds should start to build up towards sunset this evening. As cold northerly winds develop and turn more northeasterly, bands of weaker snow showers should develop as an ocean storm develops way southeast of the benchmark. High tries to build in from the west, but delta ts will be around 20C sufficient enough for snow developing towards 11 pm EST. December 7th 7:36 pm EST update: GFS model is gung ho on the potential for ocean effect snow event on Tuesday and Wednesday as winds turn northerly from the surface to 850mb and even higher up, with this configuration, we will get OES bands over Cape Cod and as far west as Plymouth county if the winds stay northeast for a while. Soundings show 850mb temps dropping to around or below -16C over CHH, with delta ts reaching into the +25 to +27C range as surface water temps are near +8C. Inversion heights are as high as 8500 feet or 700mb, and with no shear and winds around 10 knots, this is sufficient enough for a single banded event. We shall see as the medium range models pick up on it like the NAM and SREFs and then the HIRES short range guidance RAP and HRRR and NAM WRF and ARW models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z Long range HRRR model is getting interesting with the ocean storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 I would be very surprised if the Cape Cod area doesn't see snow tonight into tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I appreciate your enthusiasm, i really do...but i feel like these types of events, are so isolated, they are rarer than PF upslope events. If PF doesnt start a thread for every individual upslope event, it might be wise not to start individual threads for OES. It might be better to talk about it in the Banter Thread, and if you are really looking for personal feed back, you could pm someone... Just some thoughts, take it or leave it. It may snow someday, it may not. Just the gamble living by the ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 I think Cape Cod will get clipped by the inverted trough as the H5 low closes off once again over the area or just south of Long Island, never underestimate the H5 low moving underneath ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Actually Diane has the best chance of a coating with NE winds converging with NW winds right near her Fanny. James may get a flurry as it exits stage right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 James-didn’t you once allude to relatives in buffalo? Time to consider relocating if possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 hours ago, weathafella said: James-didn’t you once allude to relatives in buffalo? Time to consider relocating if possible. Lol, they are in the NE suburbs of Buffalo, NY, not the southtowns. Plus the newest run of the HIRES NAM shows 1.5" of snow for Chatham today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Lol, they are in the NE suburbs of Buffalo, NY, not the southtowns. Plus the newest run of the HIRES NAM shows 1.5" of snow for Chatham today. The newest run of basic climo shows 100 inches a year for them.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3K nam actually looks good for the cape to maybe Diane. Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 NAM and a couple of the morning Boston TV mets have some snow, especially on the outer Cape. Congrats James? Maybe 1-2" if he lucks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 9 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: NAM and a couple of the morning Boston TV mets have some snow, especially on the outer Cape. Congrats James? Maybe 1-2" if he lucks out Maybe something developing north of Provincetown, convective squalls perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Could there be thundersnows in the band just north of P-town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 33 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Could there be thundersnows in the band just north of P-town? No. You really need lift deep into the atmosphere. This stuff is rather low level. Good night to be in truro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No. You really need lift deep into the atmosphere. This stuff is rather low level. Good night to be in truro. Yeah Truro is always a nice place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Probably S+ up there. Stacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Probably S+ up there. Stacking. Yeah, so how heavy do you think the snow rates are in 30 dbz bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Provincetown is reporting heavy snow with a 1/4 mile visibility under 20-25 dbz returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 You seeing anything James?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Mood flakes here, very far from Cape Cod, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Mood flakes here, very far from Cape Cod, MA You’re seeing flakes...but James may not be lol, poor guy can’t win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re seeing flakes...but James may not be lol, poor guy can’t win. I got a quick dusting of snow from a snow shower, main heavy snow band just north of me over the bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 7:47 pm EST update December 7th 2018 OES event for next week Prolonged event potentially as we get closer QPF will likely expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Assuming it happens? I’ll sell the inv trough for now. Maybe you get some light oes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 NAM getting in range, not completely there yet, 00z EURO was closer to the benchmark with the coastal storm (southern jet stream disturbance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 6z GFS is showing more separation between the PV lobe and the Manitoba Mauler disturbance in the northern jet stream. This could mean better overall results for our coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 9, 2018 Author Share Posted December 9, 2018 50% chance of snow on Tuesday and Wednesday for Chatham midweek. That arctic jet shortwave is diving underneath us now on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Arctic shortwave approaching southern Manitoba, Canada is digging southward more than modeled, this could mean big changes come in the nowcasting of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 It's not a storm by any stretch. It's just some OES mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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