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Ralph Wiggum

Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread

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Hopefully we get some snow on the Dec 10th threat. I got a seasonal job as a ski instructor. Bear Creek doesn't open until we can keep man made snow reliably as there is no creek to keep the snowmaking pond filled like other resorts. A little bump from Mother Nature with poke things along. ...we will probably get a drought until March... 

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Getting the fork ready to stick in this latest threat later today.

Really dont like the pattern tendencies we are seeing repeated. LR guidance again showing what a few of us feared....cutters and tucked lows followed by cold and dry. We hardly score during epic looking patterns it's usually when they break down. Scary part is the epic look on the weeklies is there thru Feb. Does that mean we have to wait until mid Feb to cash in if at all like a typical Nino climo?

Not in a panic as I never had high hopes going in and it's not even mid Dec yet but I really dont feel good about the pattern tendencies and where we look to be going. I know someone will chime in and say "but this looks different going forward"....but does it really? In terms of actual real weather, for us does it?

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Getting the fork ready to stick in this latest threat later today.

Really dont like the pattern tendencies we are seeing repeated. LR guidance again showing what a few of us feared....cutters and tucked lows followed by cold and dry. We hardly score during epic looking patterns it's usually when they break down. Scary part is the epic look on the weeklies is there thru Feb. Does that mean we have to wait until mid Feb to cash in if at all like a typical Nino climo?

Not in a panic as I never had high hopes going in and it's not even mid Dec yet but I really dont feel good about the pattern tendencies and where we look to be going. I know someone will chime in and say "but this looks different going forward"....but does it really? In terms of actual real weather, for us does it?

Yup people will be chasing that epic looking pattern in the LR like a junkie in Kensington... I don't buy it either. 

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I'm going on 35+ years doing this as a hobby and can tell you those epic looks I used to chase like a unicorn back when I was in my 20s and 30s usually 9 out of 10 times dont pay off. They get here and we scratch our heads saying why is New England or SC getting crushed and not us? Its funny how that works. When I see an epic look now I pay more attention to when it is going to relax. We will have chances but if we r ging to cash in big I am betting that wont happen until Feb or even March. 

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38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm going on 35+ years doing this as a hobby and can tell you those epic looks I used to chase like a unicorn back when I was in my 20s and 30s usually 9 out of 10 times dont pay off. They get here and we scratch our heads saying why is New England or SC getting crushed and not us? Its funny how that works. When I see an epic look now I pay more attention to when it is going to relax. We will have chances but if we r ging to cash in big I am betting that wont happen until Feb or even March. 

yup...during epic patterns we score with nickle and dime events, but like you said we score big around here during pattern relaxation/changes. I mean people were tearing their hair out in january 2010 because we had an 'epic' pattern in place for weeks but it wasn't until the relaxation that we saw the 2 huge ones... 

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11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Getting the fork ready to stick in this latest threat later today.

Really dont like the pattern tendencies we are seeing repeated. LR guidance again showing what a few of us feared....cutters and tucked lows followed by cold and dry. We hardly score during epic looking patterns it's usually when they break down. Scary part is the epic look on the weeklies is there thru Feb. Does that mean we have to wait until mid Feb to cash in if at all like a typical Nino climo?

Not in a panic as I never had high hopes going in and it's not even mid Dec yet but I really dont feel good about the pattern tendencies and where we look to be going. I know someone will chime in and say "but this looks different going forward"....but does it really? In terms of actual real weather, for us does it?

Long road ahead for the weenies.... shoot I forgot I'm a weenie. Someday will get another bonanza for all Miller A...

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I liken Nick Foles' epic performance yesterday to how winter enthusiasts root for an 'epic pattern'. Its fantastic to be hopeful, optimistic, and to keep chances alive going forward but 'epic' doesnt always mean we've won anything or cashed in. We need plenty of help and luck to get where we need to be.

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I liken Nick Foles' epic performance yesterday to how winter enthusiasts root for an 'epic pattern'. Its fantastic to be hopeful, optimistic, and to keep chances alive going forward but 'epic' doesnt always mean we've won anything or cashed in. We need plenty of help and luck to get where we need to be.

Gave him props for getting the shiz knocked out of him in the fourth quarter and still managing to make down field.

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33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That mid-November snowstorm feels so long ago almost like it occured last winter.

My ideal winter would be mid December to the end of February - snow on the ground (not necessarily continuous) for extended periods all three months, with 10 to 15 events of varying sizes including one or more Nor'easters with 12" or more. Any snow outside of that range is always welcome, but that's the time frame in which I enjoy it the most. 2013-14 was pretty much that.

 

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5 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

My ideal winter would be mid December to the end of February - snow on the ground (not necessarily continuous) for extended periods all three months, with 10 to 15 events of varying sizes including one or more Nor'easters with 12" or more. Any snow outside of that range is always welcome, but that's the time frame in which I enjoy it the most. 2013-14 was pretty much that.

 

This is perfect, these front and back loaded winters are ridiculous.  Snow to early and to late never sticks around.

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5 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

My ideal winter would be mid December to the end of February - snow on the ground (not necessarily continuous) for extended periods all three months, with 10 to 15 events of varying sizes including one or more Nor'easters with 12" or more. Any snow outside of that range is always welcome, but that's the time frame in which I enjoy it the most. 2013-14 was pretty much that.

 

Yep....snows before the Christmas holidays thru 3rd week Feb for me. 10-15 events is a steep task but I wouldnt raise my nose to that!! I would also make it a KU sandwich meaning a KU to kick off the season and a KU at the tail end of my range. At least a 10 day period in mid January of straight sub freezing temps with 2 or 3 days of highs in the mid teens. At least one episode of legit below zero temps at night. One of those mid-teen days I request a 4-6" dry powder event. Make one or two storms a solid WSW 4-8" variety with the remainder being some clippers, some front end thumpers, and a few just avg 1-3"/2-4" as we get skirted by to the South (cant let our Mid ATL brethren go without a few good hits as well). That for me would be my ideal winter. I mean if it were up to me and I had a fully paid snow removal crew and was retired I would say non stop HECS conditions from Thanksgiving thru St Patrick's Day but I'll 'settle' for what I mentioned. :D:snowwindow::snowing::shiver::snowman:

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So after all the research and deliberation, I have decided to mount my instrument station at 2 meters (which is recommended for agricultural applications) 10 meters is the true professional meteorological application recommendation, but since my overall goal is to use this in conjunction with a future home orchard (white nectarines and pawpaw) that i'm planning, I think this will be the best solution. I'm planning on getting weatherlinkip to automatically upload my data

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31 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Nice things about this first half of non winter is the long range threats obliterate early thus saving lots of time tracking them to go poof at 36-72hrs

 

Yeah, haven't had to use up our tick supply.

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Posted this yesterday on another forum.

 

Upcoming events for winter 2018/19

Jan 1st: Its only 10 days away

Jan 10th: Its only 10 days away

Jan 20th: Its only 10 days away (Back peddling begins)

Feb 1st: Its only 10 days away (Maybe)

Feb 10th: Silence

Feb 20th: More Silence

Mar 1st: Glimmer of Hope? (Probably not)

Mar 10th: Depression sets in (Grab your meds)

Mar 20th: Oh well see you next winter

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32 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Posted this yesterday on another forum.

 

Upcoming events for winter 2018/19

Jan 1st: Its only 10 days away

Jan 10th: Its only 10 days away

Jan 20th: Its only 10 days away (Back peddling begins)

Feb 1st: Its only 10 days away (Maybe)

Feb 10th: Silence

Feb 20th: More Silence

Mar 1st: Glimmer of Hope? (Probably not)

Mar 10th: Depression sets in (Grab your meds)

Mar 20th: Oh well see you next winter

You forgot this --> :cliff:

:P

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On ‎12‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 7:12 PM, Rtd208 said:

Posted this yesterday on another forum.

 

Upcoming events for winter 2018/19

Jan 1st: Its only 10 days away

Jan 10th: Its only 10 days away

Jan 20th: Its only 10 days away (Back peddling begins)

Feb 1st: Its only 10 days away (Maybe)

Feb 10th: Silence

Feb 20th: More Silence

Mar 1st: Glimmer of Hope? (Probably not)

Mar 10th: Depression sets in (Grab your meds)

Mar 20th: Oh well see you next winter

That's hysterical.

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4 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I'll settle for cool and dry at this point! Anything to build some man made snow pack ! 

Do you have a snowmaking machine? I've thought about it. I realize you're probably talking about a ski resort but you never know!

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