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✨Pittsburgh PA ❄ Winter 2018-2019


north pgh
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42 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I won't pretend to be an expert here, but looking at this Skew-t we do have a deep saturated (Temp and DP lines are very close together) through the DGZ (area of atmosphere approximately between -10C and -20C) and we have some reasonable Omega (lift).

This is why simply saying oh it's cold we should get 20:1 ratios is not the best way to figure it out. Other things go into play too, ie if we had really strong winds in the DGZ to the surface even if there was great snow growth the crystals would get broken apart and reduce ratios. The best omega here is outside the DGZ so that may offset the snow growth to some degree.

 

Now the next panel the DGZ isn't as large, but it's still saturated and the best omega is within the DGZ. 

All that being said, given the current modeling I'd say we should be close to making the most of what qpf we get. Like I said, I'm no expert, and there is more than just this trying to figure out the ratios.

If the map you are looking at is based on a 10:1 ratio I don't think it actually takes this into account. My guess is the algorithm says, at the start of this observation are all levels of the atmosphere below freezing? Yes, ok then assume all qpf gets converted to snow at a 10:1 ratio. I'm sure its not quite that simple but you get the idea. This works fine if its a cold storm to get a general idea. I think Kuchera takes the temps at different levels of the atmosphere into account at various times between the start and end of the sounding. When you have a warm nose surging northward the 10:1 maps will almost always over estimate snow due to this and Kuchera should be more accurate.

11

That is why they call you the "Dendrite Connoisseur". Very helpful for understanding. Thank you

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44 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:

Pretty much below zero everywhere now. KPIT's windchill is at -25. Fill them gas tanks for tomorrow morning. Just speaking from a bad past experience on that one.

I’m not sure why KPIT hasn’t upgraded to a windchill warning for us.

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A bit OT here, I turned on a phone I rarely use for the first time since October 6th.  

The temp at that time was 85F, and of course updated to -2F currently. 

I forgot how long summer was last year. We then had 3 weeks of fall, and right into winter. 

It would be nice one year, to actually take advantage of these cold shots with a heavy WAA snowfall. 

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766
SXUS71 KPBZ 310821
RERPIT

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
321 AM EDT THU JAN 31 2019

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -5 WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH YESTERDAY,
JANUARY 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -1 SET IN 1934.

IN ADDITION, THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY, JANUARY 31ST, HAS ALREADY
BEEN BROKEN WITH A LOW SO FAR OF -5. THE OLD RECORD WAS -3 SET IN
1971. A FINAL RECORD REPORT FOR JANUARY 31ST WILL BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.

 

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11 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

A bit OT here, I turned on a phone I rarely use for the first time since October 6th.  

The temp at that time was 85F, and of course updated to -2F currently. 

I forgot how long summer was last year. We then had 3 weeks of fall, and right into winter. 

It would be nice one year, to actually take advantage of these cold shots with a heavy WAA snowfall. 

It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore.

 

i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny.

 

I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it.

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It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore.
 
i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny.
 
I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it.
I can remember getting thunder snow more often when I was a kid back in the 80s. We'd get a squall so intense that it would be a complete whiteout with thunder and lightning. It wouldn't last long of course, but you'd pick up a half inch or inch in just 10 minutes. Then the sun would come out and it would quickly be gone. Haven't experienced one of those in a lot of years.
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15 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said:
2 hours ago, KPITSnow said:
It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore.
 
i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny.
 
I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it.

I can remember getting thunder snow more often when I was a kid back in the 80s. We'd get a squall so intense that it would be a complete whiteout with thunder and lightning. It wouldn't last long of course, but you'd pick up a half inch or inch in just 10 minutes. Then the sun would come out and it would quickly be gone. Haven't experienced one of those in a lot of years.

Yep..I remember squalls that looked like thunderstorm cells on radar. 

 

Heck, I even remember more clippers that gave an inch or two growing up. Have we even had a clipper this year?

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What I seem to remember more of in the 70's as a kid was more 2-4 inch like snows and than we would get back end snows of 1 or 2 inches on top of what the original storm gave us. Now it seem like the front end storms come as mix and rain and than we get our 1 or 2 inch back end snows on top of wet grass. I can remember being out playing in the heavier wet snow and throwing snowballs then the front would come through and the winds would pick up out of the northwest (which was the front) and then temperatures dropping and the wet snow turning to ice and dry powdery snow. 

Maybe the WTOD didn't make it up this far. I don't know but that's my memory. 

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4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

What I seem to remember more of in the 70's as a kid was more 2-4 inch like snows and than we would get back end snows of 1 or 2 inches on top of what the original storm gave us. Now it seem like the front end storms come as mix and rain and than we get our 1 or 2 inch back end snows on top of wet grass. I can remember being out playing in the heavier wet snow and throwing snowballs then the front would come through and the winds would pick up out of the northwest (which was the front) and then temperatures dropping and the wet snow turning to ice and dry powdery snow. 

Maybe the WTOD didn't make it up this far. I don't know but that's my memory. 

Yep. When was the last time we got a real solid front end thump? I remember those all the time growing up..getting 3 or 4 inches, then ice that turned it into a skating rink, then snow at the end.

 

We don’t even get those anymore.

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Very interesting stuff. Assuming those are full calendar years and not seasons (so the average would be exactly the same overall anyway, but some of the years might look a little different)

Also, good observation as to the lack of Lake Erie ice coverage perhaps fueling more of these nuisance snows, even if bigger storms have suffered since 2011.

I also think that it’s possible that they were not nearly as dilligent about measuring minor snow in the early 1900s. Look at how many lower snowfall seasons there were. Has our climate changed that much? Probably not...I just think they weren’t measuring every snow shower that came through and perhaps just stuck a ruler in the ground at the end of the day.

Measuring location before 1950 (AGC vs PIT) could be a slight factor, but not much. They are both around 1150 to 1200’

 

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2 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Very interesting stuff. Assuming those are full calendar years and not seasons (so the average would be exactly the same overall anyway, but some of the years might look a little different)

Also, good observation as to the lack of Lake Erie ice coverage perhaps fueling more of these nuisance snows, even if bigger storms have suffered since 2011.

I also think that it’s possible that they were not nearly as dilligent about measuring minor snow in the early 1900s. Look at how many lower snowfall seasons there were. Has our climate changed that much? Probably not...I just think they weren’t measuring every snow shower that came through and perhaps just stuck a ruler in the ground at the end of the day.

Measuring location before 1950 (AGC vs PIT) could be a slight factor, but not much. They are both around 1150 to 1200’

 

Yeah, I doubt someone in 1910 was using a snowboard and clearing it every hour.

 

Like I said, anecdotally, I feel like lake effect has been a total non factor the last several years. I know we had a squall a couple weeks ago, but outside of that I’m really having a hard time thinking of any lake effect events this year, and really any that amounted to much the last couple years. I certainly remember many more days when I was younger that we would have off and on squalls al day and get maybe an inch or two.

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OHZ058-059-068-069-PAZ031-075-WVZ003-004-012-021-509-010300-
/O.CAN.KPBZ.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.190201T0400Z-190201T2200Z/
Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-
Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Martins Ferry,
St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Waynesburg, Uniontown,
Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown
245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  expected. Heaviest amounts after midnight through early morning.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio
  and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.
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Also looks like we are still good to maximize our moisture:

A winter weather advisory was issued where there was potential
for 3+ inches. Although this a fast moving disturbance that is
somewhat moisture starved...SLRs should be a little higher
around 20:1 to 25:1 overnight and early this morning with lift
focused in the DGZ and help from an upper jet streak.
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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1200 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

OHZ039-040-049-050-PAZ021-029-073-WVZ001-002-011300-
/O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190201T2200Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Allegheny-Washington-
Westmoreland-Hancock-Brooke-
Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton,
Malvern, Cadiz, Steubenville, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington,
Canonsburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Weirton,
Follansbee, and Wellsburg
1200 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio
  and northern West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Use caution while driving.

Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the
NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh

&&

$$

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