north pgh Posted January 30, 2019 Author Share Posted January 30, 2019 Got an inch early this morning while I slept. I got 2 inches last Friday night and an inch Saturday night. 4 inches in the last 3 events and never saw any of it fall because it fell overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Impressive squall this morning! Bad timing though. 2 hours to go 18 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 42 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I won't pretend to be an expert here, but looking at this Skew-t we do have a deep saturated (Temp and DP lines are very close together) through the DGZ (area of atmosphere approximately between -10C and -20C) and we have some reasonable Omega (lift). This is why simply saying oh it's cold we should get 20:1 ratios is not the best way to figure it out. Other things go into play too, ie if we had really strong winds in the DGZ to the surface even if there was great snow growth the crystals would get broken apart and reduce ratios. The best omega here is outside the DGZ so that may offset the snow growth to some degree. Now the next panel the DGZ isn't as large, but it's still saturated and the best omega is within the DGZ. All that being said, given the current modeling I'd say we should be close to making the most of what qpf we get. Like I said, I'm no expert, and there is more than just this trying to figure out the ratios. If the map you are looking at is based on a 10:1 ratio I don't think it actually takes this into account. My guess is the algorithm says, at the start of this observation are all levels of the atmosphere below freezing? Yes, ok then assume all qpf gets converted to snow at a 10:1 ratio. I'm sure its not quite that simple but you get the idea. This works fine if its a cold storm to get a general idea. I think Kuchera takes the temps at different levels of the atmosphere into account at various times between the start and end of the sounding. When you have a warm nose surging northward the 10:1 maps will almost always over estimate snow due to this and Kuchera should be more accurate. 11 That is why they call you the "Dendrite Connoisseur". Very helpful for understanding. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Burghblizz said: Impressive squall this morning! Bad timing though. 2 hours to go 18 miles 79 South was a mess this morning all the way to Southpointe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 FWIW temps are already colder than what was forecasted. 1° at KPIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 My weather station just took a drop to -1.6 at mid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 First, it’s cold out. second, the event Thursday night into Friday looks decent on the nam and gfs. Only about .2 inches qpf, but I’d imagine with temps in the single digits and teens decent ratios. Perhaps a 2-4 type event? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Pretty much below zero everywhere now. KPIT's windchill is at -25. Fill them gas tanks for tomorrow morning. Just speaking from a bad past experience on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 44 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Pretty much below zero everywhere now. KPIT's windchill is at -25. Fill them gas tanks for tomorrow morning. Just speaking from a bad past experience on that one. I’m not sure why KPIT hasn’t upgraded to a windchill warning for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Mailman said: I’ll take 3” please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 A bit OT here, I turned on a phone I rarely use for the first time since October 6th. The temp at that time was 85F, and of course updated to -2F currently. I forgot how long summer was last year. We then had 3 weeks of fall, and right into winter. It would be nice one year, to actually take advantage of these cold shots with a heavy WAA snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 766 SXUS71 KPBZ 310821 RERPIT RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 321 AM EDT THU JAN 31 2019 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PITTSBURGH... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -5 WAS SET AT PITTSBURGH YESTERDAY, JANUARY 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF -1 SET IN 1934. IN ADDITION, THE RECORD LOW FOR TODAY, JANUARY 31ST, HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN WITH A LOW SO FAR OF -5. THE OLD RECORD WAS -3 SET IN 1971. A FINAL RECORD REPORT FOR JANUARY 31ST WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 11 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said: A bit OT here, I turned on a phone I rarely use for the first time since October 6th. The temp at that time was 85F, and of course updated to -2F currently. I forgot how long summer was last year. We then had 3 weeks of fall, and right into winter. It would be nice one year, to actually take advantage of these cold shots with a heavy WAA snowfall. It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore. i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny. I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore. i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny. I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it.I can remember getting thunder snow more often when I was a kid back in the 80s. We'd get a squall so intense that it would be a complete whiteout with thunder and lightning. It wouldn't last long of course, but you'd pick up a half inch or inch in just 10 minutes. Then the sun would come out and it would quickly be gone. Haven't experienced one of those in a lot of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 15 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: 2 hours ago, KPITSnow said: It might just be me misremembering, but I seem to remember when I was younger late fall lake effect events being much more common. It was always hit or miss down here, but you could pick up an inch or two if you got under a band, and you could get impressive squalls on and off all day. That doesn’t happen anymore. i also remember that lake effect would be shut off generally by January...yet I know that now big lake effect events are common into Jan/Feb in western ny. I don’t think it is easy to see evidence of climate change on a year to year basis, but I am convinced that lack of lake effect events in November and December here, and a longer lake effect season in the snow belts is a direct indication of it. I can remember getting thunder snow more often when I was a kid back in the 80s. We'd get a squall so intense that it would be a complete whiteout with thunder and lightning. It wouldn't last long of course, but you'd pick up a half inch or inch in just 10 minutes. Then the sun would come out and it would quickly be gone. Haven't experienced one of those in a lot of years. Yep..I remember squalls that looked like thunderstorm cells on radar. Heck, I even remember more clippers that gave an inch or two growing up. Have we even had a clipper this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2019 Author Share Posted January 31, 2019 What I seem to remember more of in the 70's as a kid was more 2-4 inch like snows and than we would get back end snows of 1 or 2 inches on top of what the original storm gave us. Now it seem like the front end storms come as mix and rain and than we get our 1 or 2 inch back end snows on top of wet grass. I can remember being out playing in the heavier wet snow and throwing snowballs then the front would come through and the winds would pick up out of the northwest (which was the front) and then temperatures dropping and the wet snow turning to ice and dry powdery snow. Maybe the WTOD didn't make it up this far. I don't know but that's my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 4 minutes ago, north pgh said: What I seem to remember more of in the 70's as a kid was more 2-4 inch like snows and than we would get back end snows of 1 or 2 inches on top of what the original storm gave us. Now it seem like the front end storms come as mix and rain and than we get our 1 or 2 inch back end snows on top of wet grass. I can remember being out playing in the heavier wet snow and throwing snowballs then the front would come through and the winds would pick up out of the northwest (which was the front) and then temperatures dropping and the wet snow turning to ice and dry powdery snow. Maybe the WTOD didn't make it up this far. I don't know but that's my memory. Yep. When was the last time we got a real solid front end thump? I remember those all the time growing up..getting 3 or 4 inches, then ice that turned it into a skating rink, then snow at the end. We don’t even get those anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 You guys have inspired me to get creative and make some graphs. Take them for what you want. Thought it was interesting with all the chatter about the past several decades. Snow goes up, ice coverage on Erie is happening later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Very interesting stuff. Assuming those are full calendar years and not seasons (so the average would be exactly the same overall anyway, but some of the years might look a little different) Also, good observation as to the lack of Lake Erie ice coverage perhaps fueling more of these nuisance snows, even if bigger storms have suffered since 2011. I also think that it’s possible that they were not nearly as dilligent about measuring minor snow in the early 1900s. Look at how many lower snowfall seasons there were. Has our climate changed that much? Probably not...I just think they weren’t measuring every snow shower that came through and perhaps just stuck a ruler in the ground at the end of the day. Measuring location before 1950 (AGC vs PIT) could be a slight factor, but not much. They are both around 1150 to 1200’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 Judging by the short range models the best precip will be down at the WV/PA border. The city may struggle to much more than an inch from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 16 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Judging by the short range models the best precip will be down at the WV/PA border. The city may struggle to much more than an inch from the clipper. Yea the NAM has me in 2-4” range for tomorrow showing lesser amounts to the north-guess pile it on for the 50’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 2 hours ago, Burghblizz said: Very interesting stuff. Assuming those are full calendar years and not seasons (so the average would be exactly the same overall anyway, but some of the years might look a little different) Also, good observation as to the lack of Lake Erie ice coverage perhaps fueling more of these nuisance snows, even if bigger storms have suffered since 2011. I also think that it’s possible that they were not nearly as dilligent about measuring minor snow in the early 1900s. Look at how many lower snowfall seasons there were. Has our climate changed that much? Probably not...I just think they weren’t measuring every snow shower that came through and perhaps just stuck a ruler in the ground at the end of the day. Measuring location before 1950 (AGC vs PIT) could be a slight factor, but not much. They are both around 1150 to 1200’ Yeah, I doubt someone in 1910 was using a snowboard and clearing it every hour. Like I said, anecdotally, I feel like lake effect has been a total non factor the last several years. I know we had a squall a couple weeks ago, but outside of that I’m really having a hard time thinking of any lake effect events this year, and really any that amounted to much the last couple years. I certainly remember many more days when I was younger that we would have off and on squalls al day and get maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: Judging by the short range models the best precip will be down at the WV/PA border. The city may struggle to much more than an inch from the clipper. It is looking worse and worse every run...too far south now. Figures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 31, 2019 Share Posted January 31, 2019 OHZ058-059-068-069-PAZ031-075-WVZ003-004-012-021-509-010300- /O.CAN.KPBZ.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-190131T2200Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.190201T0400Z-190201T2200Z/ Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Greene-Fayette-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Cambridge, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Caldwell, Woodsfield, Waynesburg, Uniontown, Wheeling, Moundsville, New Martinsville, Fairmont, and Morgantown 245 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches expected. Heaviest amounts after midnight through early morning. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern and northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 The latest high res models have been nudging north. Looks like 2 inches in Pittsburgh...I’d 100% take it at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: The latest high res models have been nudging north. Looks like 2 inches in Pittsburgh...I’d 100% take it at this point. Love some cold powder for sure! . Best to just take it in and enjoy whatever happens because we probably are done for at least 5-7 days after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 Also looks like we are still good to maximize our moisture: A winter weather advisory was issued where there was potential for 3+ inches. Although this a fast moving disturbance that is somewhat moisture starved...SLRs should be a little higher around 20:1 to 25:1 overnight and early this morning with lift focused in the DGZ and help from an upper jet streak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted February 1, 2019 Share Posted February 1, 2019 HRRR trending much better tonight than earlier. Radar looks better than what models are initiating with. saying to. 2-3 sounds good. Somewhere around I-70 will get 4. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2019 Author Share Posted February 1, 2019 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1200 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 OHZ039-040-049-050-PAZ021-029-073-WVZ001-002-011300- /O.EXA.KPBZ.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190201T2200Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Allegheny-Washington- Westmoreland-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of New Philadelphia, Dover, Carrollton, Malvern, Cadiz, Steubenville, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Weirton, Follansbee, and Wellsburg 1200 AM EST Fri Feb 1 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania, east central Ohio and northern West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Use caution while driving. Please report snow or ice by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPittsburgh && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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