RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Starting to see some bands setting up on radar. Maybe somebody squeezes and inch or so out of the NW flow. Conditions at least look favorable for snow showers to stick around even the lowlands for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4-6" on the EPS? I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 47 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Kinda hard to believe the snow totals and the precip shield on this run. 500 mb looked rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 That damn High up north is squashing everything South, even on the NAM. We need to slow the High down a little so we can keep the snow up here longer. Still I would be happy with a 2-4 system on Saturday. Looking at the radar it looks like a nice solid band moving into Allegheny Co. from the Northwest. Let's hope we can all get something from this. At least an inch or so. I still have a coating on the ground and it isn't going anywhere with the temp dropping to 27 and lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I think 2-4 is not out of the question but that damn confluence is killing a 5-8 storm. It just dies out as it comes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I like the period after this weekend a lot more. Say between the 19th and the end of January. I think we get at least one significant event in that window (6" or more). This upcoming storm may still provide something, but I see it as more of a table-setter than the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 NWS latest update. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some uncertainty remains regarding the track and timing of the weekend storm system. The models track the surface low south of our region, and push an inverted trough into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. For now, still expect precipitation mostly in the form of snow through Saturday night, producing perhaps 1-3" of accumulation from Pittsburgh on south, with the higher totals near the Mason- Dixon Line. Enough warm air may sneak north on Sunday to allow for a mix with rain before precipitation would cease Sunday night. The details of this system will hopefully become more clear with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Bernie’s periscope today was helpful in understanding why the GFS and the Euro are showing different solutions. The 552 confluence zone is key and it’s in totally different spots in the two models. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 EF1 Tornado in Mercer County yesterday. ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR JANUARY 8TH 2019 TORNADO... Start Location...2 north-northeast of New Lebanon, Pennsylvania Date...January 8 2019 Estimated Time...1125 am EST Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...95 mph Maximum Path Width...400 yards Path Length...2.8 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...41.4329/-80.0753 Ending Lat/Lon...41.4517/-80.0286 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... A team from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh determined damage that began just west of Sandy Lake Road /SR 173/ approximately 2 miles north of New Lebanon, PA and concluded north east of Donation road was a EF1 tornado. Most of the damage was to hardwood trees that were either uprooted or snapped at the trunk. A bulk of the damage occurred just south of Smith road. A clear path of convergent down trees stretched from this point and continued east northeast until reaching North road. From there the path was intermittent with down trees that concluded on a hilltop just east of Donation road. The only structural damage observed on places where access was possible happened when a tree fell onto a mobile home damaging the roof just beyond the North and Smith road intersection. There also was a brine container that was tossed approximately 60 yards. Tornado statistics: * 7th recorded tornado in January in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania since 1950 * 24th recorded tornado in Mercer County since 1886 * Last tornado before Monday in Mercer county occurred on May 31st 2015 EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Canadian comes more north 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, north pgh said: Canadian comes more north 3-4. So did the gfs but that confluence just shears that thing apart. Im hoping it's over modeled and the precip is slightly under modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: So did the gfs but that confluence just shears that thing apart. Im hoping it's over modeled and the precip is slightly under modeled. We will see what the Euro does, but my guess is that we will end up with a blend between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Gigantic precip field on the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Sometimes these squashed systems can provide enough WAA west of the Apps to give some bonus amounts. A bit of a poor mans inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Haven't taken the time to analyze it yet, but first glance at the NAM is no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Using Bernie's info from yesterday, NAM is showing a solution where that confluence line is staying off too far to the north. So instead of it coming further south and allowing the energy to merge over ohio, the energy is staying with the southern stream. Because confluence zone is north, the flow stays pretty west--> east and ships our Low OTS. IF we can get that confluence zone to drop in, our totals wont be super impressive, but we might get that 3-4 storm that we are desperately seeking at this point of the year. If it stays as the NAM has shown, i think our max is about 2 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said: Haven't taken the time to analyze it yet, but first glance at the NAM is no bueno Yeah not impressive, we get maybe 1-2 off the initial WAA \ Inverted trough setup, but it's quickly falling apart as it gets to us which makes me lean towards a better likely hood of it being less impressive vs if it was strengthening as it came our way. Good stuff basically dies out in central OH. Best totals will be SW of the City for sure, which is contrast to the last several were being SE was better. We are still a couple days out though, so still time for some tweaks one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Finally got to look at last nights 00z euro. Looks alot like the 12z NAM from today.... More than 48 hours to go, but this is looking less and less likely to be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Mailman said: Guess this won’t be awful-we have a good 2” on ground right now so another 3 would be a good sledding party Saturday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: Guess this won’t be awful-we have a good 2” on ground right now so another 3 would be a good sledding party Saturday! Solid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 SREF mean is 1 in. 00z GFS looks about the same and so is the NAM. This one is dead. Give it a 1-3. 1 most likely and 3 if you are extremely lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Even if things don't work out favorably this weekend, there seems to be something to track for next weekend, as well. Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Even if things don't work out favorably this weekend, there seems to be something to track for next weekend, as well. Yay! More reason to be distracted at work next week as well lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's not much but it looks like the models are either not weakening the energy as fast or the precip is higher but the amounts ticked up slightly. But maybe that's all we need to sneak 3 or 4 inches. The next storm period looks more interesting as of now. It feels good to be tracking again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Any farther north and we would probably have been mixing in rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 "ho hum" for the 12z NAM. Its been crazy consistent with 500 mb and snowfall. 2-3 in of snow looks likely and ya know what? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 We're due, those are facts considering our averages. This wait is just gonna make the next big one where its heavy snow here and heavy rain in I95 that much sweeter. Looking at the 06z gefs there was some heavy hitters for the next storm. Still a long way out but it looks like we may finally have true winter storms to track. If I was a betting man I'd say the next one is a nice Youngstown special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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