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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

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10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know this is the NAM at range but again, I'm not sure how some folks are seeing this as a very snowy solution. Tucked low, no blocking hp North to cause a redevelopment or bump East, no HP to the North filtering in LLC. Outside of far N and W higher elevation areas this is just a teaser....something to track to get the rust off. As far as the ULL pulling through early Friday with a death band I suppose it's possible but forecasting this type of scenario at range is a real challenge. Hoping to maybe see a few flakes at the onset and maybe a few flakes Friday anyway. Not expecting any accumulation in my area. 

Eta: There will be the first accum snow of the season for some, just wanted to note that my disagreement in snow vs little to no snow is irt the i95 corridor and immediate burbs. Far n and w ftw

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51.png

my thoughts exact and imo this is the type of storm that will be common this winter.

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I don't like this for anyone S and E of Quakertown area. Not a great setup in the heart of winter for the coastal plain, let alone mid november. I would be shocked if anywhere S of Qtown sees anything outside of a slushy inch. Lehigh valley though, this may be an all time fall snow storm...

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10 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

imo this is the type of storm that will be common this winter.

Exactly and thus why I'm not overly concerned with my winter thoughts/outlook post. Yes...active storm track. Yes, ample moisture. Yes, El Nino. BUT you cant just assume this means plenty of snow. My analog winters had all 3 of the factors I noted above but ended up with storm tracks similar to what we have seen so far this fall and with this upcoming storm and yielded not so much snowfall in the city after hopeful late fall starts. We can only hope the track shifts as we get deeper into winter....if u like lots of snowfall in Philly. Otherwise a frustrating season is coming along I95. Hoping we r wrong Iceman but I would much rather be conservative in this pattern than go all-in with a monster snowfall season. Far interior should do really well tho.

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The 3k NAM is at range but shows probably the worst possible solution for 95(or best depending on your outlook). Big thump arrives in the late afternoon and lasts through the evening commute before changing to sleet then rain. May not be a prolific total maker but it's timing is for maximum impact during the evening commute. One thing to note though is that while low level cold may hold on longer than expected, the upper levels tend to torch much quicker than progged in these systems. I bet most of what the NAM is showing as snow in 95 corridor is actually sleet and the changeover to sleet will be much faster than advertised. Still a quick 1-2" during the evening commute could wreak havoc especially since most won't take it seriously since it's November.

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Looks like 12z suite so far is a bit more tucked with the slp just inside the coastline and thus slightly warmer. Looking more sleet than white here and for many. Agree with Iceman above quick thump with a relatively quick transition to sleet then slowly to cold rain for nearby NW burbs. Temps right around freezing up in my area of Bucks. Glad I'm off Thursday :-)

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BTW does anyone know how the parallel GFS(at least I think that's what FV-3 GFS on TT is) has done so far and when it is taking over for the GFS? It's running now but not sure whether it is worth looking at or not. Thanks.

 

Edit: looks cooler than the OP GFS for 95.. definitely at least starts as snow where as OP I think most start as sleet.

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These tucked solutions won't get it done in November. While somehow they have managed to bring snow to the coast in recent years it's not happening with the still warm waters.

 

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Surprised nobody mentioned the ECM. Still shows a significant snow event in PA to Philly and 3" in eastern Monmouth here. The americans are mostly rain.

Tucked to coast vs not as tucked.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I don't like this for anyone S and E of Quakertown area. Not a great setup in the heart of winter for the coastal plain, let alone mid november. I would be shocked if anywhere S of Qtown sees anything outside of a slushy inch. Lehigh valley though, this may be an all time fall snow storm...

Hell, that's fine by me for mid Nov...

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Hard to go against the Euro at this range...will the americans fold come 00z? pre-season winter is great.

I have to side with the americans as of now based on the ECM performance last winter, it kept going hog wild with snow last winter who knows if it's been tweaked or not.

 

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

I have to side with the americans as of now based on the ECM performance last winter, it kept going hog wild with snow last winter who knows if it's been tweaked or not.

 

I was thinking the same and even the NAMs are backing down so yeah.

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18z NAM def took a step towards the Euro...cooler than 12z...actually a decent thump..decent meaning 1-3" with 1-2" being most common...but N and W burbs...not too far from a potential warning event....

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Just now, Newman said:

Wow the NAM keeps NW areas around the Lehigh Valley 90%-100% frozen throughout the storm. Lets go.

No changeover here on the NAM either until dryslotted then the usual 32-33f drizzle.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No changeover here on the NAM either until dryslotted then the usual 32-33f drizzle.

I'm hyped. It's only mid-November and we're tracking THIS. Check out the 700 fronto on the NAM. We all will be thumping heavy snow during the evening commute Thursday. 

namconus_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_42.png

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_41.png

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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

18z NAM is plain ridiculous showing 10" to 1" west to east in Monmouth. Wherever i go the gosh darn fence will follow me.

 

 

Don't worry about the snow maps with this storm. The NAM shows 1.25" of liquid for a lot of SE PA. At 10 to 1 that's 12" of snow. Ratios will be 8 to 1 so make it 10 inches of snow. Cut it in half to account for sleet and you get 5" of snow and almost 2" of sleet and/or freezing rain accretion.

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