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Philadelphia Snow

Possible Snow Event Saturday April 7th

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Please miss.

No offense to the snow lovers on here, but starting the 2nd weekend in March every year I am in full Little League baseball mode (coach and director of facilities) and this has been the worse spring in a while.

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Adam Joseph from abc6. Just posted a blog going over the possibilities.  One thing he said which I didnt understand.  He said the 12z nam from earlier today is showing mainly a rain even for whole philly region ending as a little snow.  What am i missing. It wasn’t showing that?

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7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Lol 18z NAM is even worse for SEPA at least the philly area. Too early to throw in the towel?

If you compare the snowfall map the 6 inch line is further se on 18z then 12z. 

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3 hours ago, Stormman96 said:

Adam Joseph from abc6. Just posted a blog going over the possibilities.  One thing he said which I didnt understand.  He said the 12z nam from earlier today is showing mainly a rain even for whole philly region ending as a little snow.  What am i missing. It wasn’t showing that?

Fake News that's what

 

  • Haha 1

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Wasnt expecting big shift South with 48 hrs lead time in April to put Cape May in the bullseye tbh but thats what we have at this hour. Not saying it will be the end result. Does anyone know what the latest measurable snowfall is historically theyve ever received?

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Glad the N trend stopped yesterday finally. The jump S overnight did give us more wiggle room. These jumps at this range are all too common when energy comes into better sampling areas and onshore out West. We almost expectedly see big changes in one run of guidance once this happens which *usually* is an overcorrection then things tick one way or another thru zero hour. The only thing Im not a huge fan of is the fropa look some guidance moved towards. Hopefully that isnt a trend towards a final outcome. Expect 12z and especially 18z-0z to start ticking N again after this overcorrection phase passes. Wouldnt be impossible but extremely anomalous to miss out on a baro wave with overunning snowfall to suppression this time of year.....that is as long as it remains a wave and doesnt morph into a fropa like I mentioned.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The trend towards this being a front passage and nothing more at this stage is not good especially with every short range model at 6z having that look. We don't need a north trend but a trend towards an entirely different evolution which is just incredibly unlikely at this range. If that trend continues at 12z it's game over...

 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
9 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:
True but current trends are not good. For this to work out I would think the south trend would need to stop now.

Didnt you make a post a mere 12 hours or so ago that the NAM was a horrible look with its trends N and showing rain for your area and you asked if it was too late to throw in the towel?

I did yes but that was when most models were North. Yes your correct things could trend back North but less likely now as lead time shortens.

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I did yes but that was when most models were North. Yes your correct things could trend back North but less likely now as lead time shortens.
Well, it isnt over just yet and like I suggested, this may be the usual hiccup/overcorrection we almost always see. We will know by 18z if it is indeed an actual trend or not.

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looks like we have consensus. actually a pretty fitting end to winter if this is indeed the last snow threat this year. models being seemingly locked into a solution in the day 4-6 range only for it to change drastically once the players are on the field. this looks nothing more than a cold front at this point now, oh well. it was pretty amazing that most guidance has been together including on shifts...went from all of the models showing at least a decent wave riding the front giving some snow for all and a solid chance at 6"+ for some to all of the models showing a frontal passage with mood flakes for most and nobody seeing anything more than car topper in 24 hours. That's a pretty dramatic shift 72 hours out not just track wise but complete storm evolution. Crazy that not one single model picked up on this until 18z yesterday. Most were worried about a trend north at 12z yesterday.

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Fairly awful bottom falling out event for the MA crew what a winter there we have been extremely lucky by comparison.

I have 60" snow in a season loaded with busts lol

 

 

 

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looks like we have consensus. actually a pretty fitting end to winter if this is indeed the last snow threat this year. models being seemingly locked into a solution in the day 4-6 range only for it to change drastically once the players are on the field. this looks nothing more than a cold front at this point now, oh well. it was pretty amazing that most guidance has been together including on shifts...went from all of the models showing at least a decent wave riding the front giving some snow for all and a solid chance at 6"+ for some to all of the models showing a frontal passage with mood flakes for most and nobody seeing anything more than car topper in 24 hours. That's a pretty dramatic shift 72 hours out not just track wise but complete storm evolution. Crazy that not one single model picked up on this until 18z yesterday. Most were worried about a trend north at 12z yesterday.
Didnt trend N or S so we were all fooled. Transformed/morphed from a baro wave to a fropa with the snap of a finger. The April 21 system on the 12z GFS will rock!

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Fairly awful bottom falling out event for the MA crew what a winter there we have been extremely lucky by comparison.
I have 60" snow in a season loaded with busts lol
 
 
 
I need less than a half inch to surpass 60" for the season......thought Saturday was a lock. Maybe tomorrow morning or even next week can surprise produce lol.

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
44 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:
Cheers to spring boys emoji4.png

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

Dont look at the LR GFS ha!

yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point.

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
48 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:
Cheers to spring boys emoji4.png

Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

 

Dont look at the LR GFS ha!

The anafront snows on Saturday might get you to 60" if we get lucky.

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yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point.
This could be the rare year we record at least a tr in early May. I seriously wouldnt be surprised. Neg NAO and neg AO coming back with a vengeance on some LR guidance. Just silly stuff really.

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50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
57 minutes ago, The Iceman said:
yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point.

This could be the rare year we record at least a tr in early May. I seriously wouldnt be surprised. Neg NAO and neg AO coming back with a vengeance on some LR guidance. Just silly stuff really.

If only this pattern would have started in Jan not March one can only imagine what this winter could have been

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If only this pattern would have started in Jan not March one can only imagine what this winter could have been
Probably cold and dry tbh. The constant arctic intrusion would likely have overwhelmed the pattern.

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This being more of a frontal boundary, I am not so sure about a shift north. But it's been a good winter. Spring can come as long as we don't go right into summer temps.

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On 4/4/2018 at 3:18 PM, greenskeeper said:

Please miss.

No offense to the snow lovers on here, but starting the 2nd weekend in March every year I am in full Little League baseball mode (coach and director of facilities) and this has been the worse spring in a while.

You may have gotten your wish, but I was going to suggest sliding practice. Our high school baseball coach had us do that in 2" of wet snow one March, lol.

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