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chubbs

2018 Temperatures

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Could be the first year since 2013 with all ONIs staying below 0.0°C so I expect a slight step down.  But that’s a big if.  As mentioned above, PDO continues to trend more positive after going neutral the 2nd half of last year.  

1896FAD8-10DD-4E20-96C9-76A4FC3C9CC3.png

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January may be the first month below +0.70° C on GISS since 2014.  Using NCEP as a proxy, January finished a hair below June 2017(+0.70).  Would’ve been considered a warm month prior to the super Niño but a step down at this time. 

21A45FF3-3600-4D97-BBD8-7892B854F32C.png

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GISS for January came in at +0.78° C.   I was surprised it was this high considering NCEP reanalysis.  GISS January was higher than GISS September 2017 though September was notably higher on NCEP reanalysis.  Could be some sort of seasonal bias?

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On 1/31/2018 at 9:57 AM, chubbs said:

To kick-off 2018, below is the recently issued UK Met Office Decadal forecast. Per write-up, PDO+ and AMO+ favor warming over the 5-year outlook period after a relatively cool 2018. Green is the CMIP5 predicted range.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

metoffice_global-average-temperatures-forecast-2017-2022notitle.png

This is probably not real given that noaa maybe fudging the numbers.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/20/delingpole-noaa-caught-adjusting-big-freeze-out-of-existence/

 

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13 hours ago, PDIII said:

Maybe read up a bit more from some scientific sources that discuss and explain the contents of that article in detail before posting misinformation

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What stratospheric reversals do to the ocean. This is a global mean, that's a huge movement. Global averaged trade wind speeds have reduced by 65% in the past two weeks.

global.png

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5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

By and large it's not cold where people live. Here is the GFS global temperature reanalysis for the current and upcoming period.

GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. 

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. 

Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes.

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5 hours ago, nzucker said:

Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes.

It's anomalously windy everywhere probably related to the SSW event from January. Really impressive in regards to how long the downstream effects persist.

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5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Global warming probably reverses soon. 

Reasoning? I think the retracement period is already behind us. Next el nino late 2019?

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1 hour ago, etudiant said:

What is 'atmosphere depletion'? I've not heard the term previously.

The global tropics have been soaking up an insane amount of heat because of the monsoons and strong trades. Atlantic basin more fortunate with the negative SAL forcing but still heating robustly below the surface.

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