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Let's Talk Winter!!


Steve

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18 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

There wasn't much model support for this though right? GFS only one showing it I think. 

the euro literally has nothing...for no one.   ukmet also has nothing.    The ggem has something but it's weaker.   Here we go again, needing a phase to show what the gfs is spewing and you know what happens when we need a phase.    9 times out of 10 it's a miss and a non-event...or it happens way too late for anyone other than new england.    

On the positive side, the gfs has beaten up the euro a bit this winter on storms.   12z should give us a pretty solid idea of which camp is going to cave.

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

the euro literally has nothing...for no one.   ukmet also has nothing.    The ggem has something but it's weaker.   Here we go again, needing a phase to show what the gfs is spewing and you know what happens when we need a phase.    9 times out of 10 it's a miss and a non-event...or it happens way too late for anyone other than new england.    

On the positive side, the gfs has beaten up the euro a bit this winter on storms.   12z should give us a pretty solid idea of which camp is going to cave.

and "poof"

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17 hours ago, buckeye said:

yep,

barring any fantastic trends back to a gfs-esque phased solution...

...it might be time to give props to the much-maligned uncle ukie.    Never once showed anything other than a weak wave passing off the southeast coast.

Ah the infamous shift north at the 11th hour maybe from LMK:

As we continue into Saturday, the GFS/Euro/GEFS all slowly sink the
frontal boundary into Tennessee. Overrunning precip will strengthen
as a surface low comes up out of the Southern Plains. This will keep
the best precip chances over southern KY, with a gradient in pops as
you go farther north. Saturday night, the surface low will travel
across the Deep South. GFS now is on board with this scenario, but
it will be interesting to see if it trends back north and shows a
little more phasing with a northern stream system coming in. The
latter system may keep precip chances going through Sunday.
 

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2 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Ah the infamous shift north at the 11th hour maybe from LMK:

As we continue into Saturday, the GFS/Euro/GEFS all slowly sink the
frontal boundary into Tennessee. Overrunning precip will strengthen
as a surface low comes up out of the Southern Plains. This will keep
the best precip chances over southern KY, with a gradient in pops as
you go farther north. Saturday night, the surface low will travel
across the Deep South. GFS now is on board with this scenario, but
it will be interesting to see if it trends back north and shows a
little more phasing with a northern stream system coming in. The
latter system may keep precip chances going through Sunday.
 

I'm lighting a candle in the window. It may be our last shot this season at a real threat.

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the 12z gfs just makes me :facepalm:

Any other year you put a 994 low in sw TN and a 1037 HP pressing in from SD, and I'd be licking my chops or even wiping my brow nervous of the warm tongue.   But alas, the block from hell says fu, and takes it due east.   

I was ready to give this winter a B+, but watching the end game and how it's unfolding is driving that grade down to a C....which should work considering we're about average snowfall I guess.

I should add something I've noticed in recent years.   It seems like there has been a re-occuring pattern of late season snow storms that whiff us to the south and east.   It's this kind of stuff that turns me into a warminista.   F*ck snow, warmth never disappoints :lol:

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

the 12z gfs just makes me :facepalm:

Any other year you put a 994 low in sw TN and a 1037 HP pressing in from SD, and I'd be licking my chops or even wiping my brow nervous of the warm tongue.   But alas, the block from hell says fu, and takes it due east.   

I was ready to give this winter a B+, but watching the end game and how it's unfolding is driving that grade down to a C....which should work considering we're about average snowfall I guess.

I should add something I've noticed in recent years.   It seems like there has been a re-occuring pattern of late season snow storms that whiff us to the south and east.   It's this kind of stuff that turns me into a warminista.   F*ck snow, warmth never disappoints :lol:

Agree. My winter loving days are starting to come to an end. Year after year it's the same crap. I just don't get excited about a 4"-6" storm anymore. If that's the best we can do then I'd just assume it stay warm. I think nearly everyone on the forum had a big storm except us. And of course warm states...

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13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Agree. My winter loving days are starting to come to an end. Year after year it's the same crap. I just don't get excited about a 4"-6" storm anymore. If that's the best we can do then I'd just assume it stay warm. I think nearly everyone on the forum had a big storm except us. And of course warm states...

10 years ago I would have never considered moving to a place where it didn't snow or where there wasn't 4 seasons.    If it wasn't for my established business and family being here in the east....I'd love to move to some place like Scottsdale, AZ.   I wouldn't miss the snow for a second.  In fact, I'd still log on to this site so I could laugh at all the snowstorm tracking that leads to fail :D

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Well its official, we recorded 15mins worth of heavy snow at in March!  B)

Text: KMGY 131709Z AUTO 33012KT 1/4SM +SN VV006 M01/M04 A3004 RMK AO2 P0001 T10111039
Temperature: -1.1°C ( 30°F)
Dewpoint: -3.9°C ( 25°F) [RH = 81%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.04 inches Hg (1017.4 mb)
Winds: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 600 feet AGL
Clouds: obscured sky
Weather: +SN (heavy snow)
QC Flag: automated observation with no human augmentation
Text: KMGY 131700Z AUTO 34013G22KT 1/4SM +SN BKN011 OVC033 M01/M04 A3004 RMK AO2 P0000 T10111039
Temperature: -1.1°C ( 30°F)
Dewpoint: -3.9°C ( 25°F) [RH = 81%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.04 inches Hg (1017.4 mb)
Winds: from the NNW (340 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 knots; 6.7 m/s) gusting to 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.3 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 1100 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1100 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 3300 feet AGL
Weather: +SN (heavy snow)
QC Flag: automated observation with no human augmentation
Text: KMGY 131653Z AUTO 34016G23KT 1/4SM +SN FEW007 BKN016 OVC048 M01/M04 A3004 RMK AO2 SNB40 SLP183 P0000 T10061044
Temperature: -0.6°C ( 31°F)
Dewpoint: -4.4°C ( 24°F) [RH = 75%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.04 inches Hg (1017.4 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1018.3 mb]
Winds: from the NNW (340 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 knots; 8.2 m/s) gusting to 26 MPH (23 knots; 11.8 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 1600 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 700 feet AGL, broken clouds at 1600 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 4800 feet AGL
Weather: +SN (heavy snow)
QC Flag: automated observation with no human augmentation
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4 minutes ago, buckeye said:

yea, appears to be.  Might finally break the seal on getting a winter storm watch.   Of course we do it in true CMH-style....   first day of spring lol.

Right?! So crazy, but that’s mother nature I guess, trying the even things out. 

We actually had a Watch back in December that never panned into Warning. I think it has been 3 years since we had a Warning, definitely 2 years. 

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Just now, iluvsnow said:

Couldn't buy a good snow in the heart of winter....now that April shows up...my backyard is targeted for a half a foot {Dayton, Ohio} That mother nature can be a practical joker. I know, April fools. I'm not laughing:

namconus_asnow_us_16.png

Right? It is the NAM though so amounts always too much. Cut that in half, but still, I feel your pain here to your east. 

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