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October 2017 Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Freeze Warning for Morris County tonight.  This is right around the time when I should get my first 32F temp.

 Lowest so far is 34.  

We usually get it earlier .been a warm fall. 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's 57°-47° range, NYC finished October with a 64.1° mean temperature. That reading surpassed the previous record warmest average of 63.6°, which was set in 1947 and tied in 2007.

45 before midnight standard time.

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The lowest temperature during October was 42°. As a result, 2017 is the first year since 2014 during which New York City had not achieved a minimum temperature below 40° by the end of October. It is also the 31st such year on record, with records going back to 1869.

Such an outcome does not necessarily mean that the winter will see little snowfall. 37% of winters that followed such outcomes had seasonal snowfall below 20"; 63% had seasonal snowfall of 20" or more; and, 43% had seasonal snowfall of 30" or more (and three-quarters of those winters had seasonal snowfall of 40" or more).  The numbers were very similar from the subset that included an October mean temperature of 60° or above. The respective percentages were 36% (<20"), 64% (20" or more), and 27% (30" or more).

The state of the ENSO might be important. Since 1950,     6/7 (86%) of the La Niña cases from the years that saw the first reading below 40° occur in November saw 20" or more snowfall in NYC while 3/4 (75%) of the neutral cases saw less than 20" seasonal snowfall. Due to very small sample sizes in these subsets, a large degree of caution is in order.

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