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Hoosier

Major Late Season Heat Possible Again 10/2 ---?

113 posts in this topic

It's already been discussed quite a bit in the main October thread, but I think it will probably be thread worthy by the time it arrives... and it's sort of fun to pull the trigger in advance on one of these and see how it pans out.

After a cool down this week to around October 1, it appears like the general western trough/eastern ridge pattern reasserts, and in a big way.  We will already be on a warming trend in the first 2 or 3 days of October, but the real heat looks to set in on a more widespread level by the 4th or so.  How warm?  Well, many of the model/ensemble signals are pretty impressive at this distance.  In general, it will be difficult to match the exact temps/duration of 90s that has been occurring in many areas, which is simply a function of moving later in the calendar year.  But I do believe this airmass could have record/near record potential on some days, and warming should be maximized with current/growing rainfall deficits.

Just how long this lasts -- especially the extreme anomalies -- is up in the air, but for now, the mid-late week period next week is the time to watch.

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Both the 6 to 10 and the 8 to 14 analog set from CPC have 10/8 listed as top or 2nd place analog, that goes to show you how the ensembles are shaping up going into early October.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Both the 6 to 10 and the 8 to 14 analog set from CPC have 10/8 listed as top or 2nd place analog, that goes to show you how the ensembles are shaping up going into early October.

I was going to say, in some ways what's being advertised reminds me of Oct 2007. So whatever people's peak temps were back then could end up being in the ballpark next week.  No two setups are exactly the same so maybe a bit less in some areas and a bit warmer in others.

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12z Euro brings part 2 from Tue through the following weekend most likely.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro brings part 2 from Tue through the following weekend most likely.

EPS control and ensembles are in agreement with that assessment.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

597dm+ ridge on the ECMWF.

Yeah, very impressive.  Oct 2007 didn't even have one quite that intense.

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Probably some wiggle room on how extreme the outcome is at this lead time as Hoosier alluded to, but very impressive signal. The 12z operational Euro is probably on the upper end, with the the ensemble means impressive in their own right. Given the antecedent developing drought, would at least anticipate multiple 80s in a row for many climate sites in the sub.

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11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Probably some wiggle room on how extreme the outcome is at this lead time as Hoosier alluded to, but very impressive signal. The 12z operational Euro is probably on the upper end, with the the ensemble means impressive in their own right. Given the antecedent developing drought, would at least anticipate multiple 80s in a row for many climate sites in the sub.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Speaking of the dry weather... going back to August 5, this is the driest stretch on record for Chicago.

ORD did not officially hit 90 in October 2007.  Given the current stretch, and the particularly dry weather in addition to what's being progged, the cards would seem to be lining up for it to happen sometime next week.  I mean, can't be super confident in 90+ given the rarity and being a week or more out, but I guess we can say this is about as good as it gets for October.

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Speaking of the dry weather... going back to August 5, this is the driest stretch on record for Chicago.

ORD did not officially hit 90 in October 2007.  Given the current stretch, and the particularly dry weather in addition to what's being progged, the cards would seem to be lining up for it to happen sometime next week.  I mean, can't be super confident in 90+ given the rarity and being a week or more out, but I guess we can say this is about as good as it gets for October.

Agree there that if you're gonna have a setup to produce a 90 in Chicago in October, this would be it. Since the record for latest 90 is 94 degrees on October 6, 1963, could make a run at that depending on setup next weekend.

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Agree there that if you're gonna have a setup to produce a 90 in Chicago in October, this would be it. Since the record for latest 90 is 94 degrees on October 6, 1963, could make a run at that depending on setup next weekend.

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That 94 is something, and a bit of an outlier as the other 5 October 90s on record for Chicago are in the 90-92 range.

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18z GFS really just maximizes the length of the heat wave, starts to the west a bit and then just locks in as the ridge shifts east and expands significantly, even at day 16 there is nothing there to dislodge the ridge.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

18z GFS really just maximizes the length of the heat wave, starts to the west a bit and then just locks in as the ridge shifts east and expands significantly, even at day 16 there is nothing there to dislodge the ridge.

Tropical system gets into the mix at the end, which is something you mentioned as a factor to watch for as far as possibly extending it.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Tropical system gets into the mix at the end, which is something you mentioned as a factor to watch for as far as possibly extending it.

Yep, the 3 that ran up the east coast help extend this current heat wave. Furthermore if something forms in the Caribbean or Gulf it would just help to reinforce the ridge to the north.

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Surface moisture looks to be less/shallower than what we had during this current stretch.  Euro implies mixing down into the 50s by afternoon on the warmest days, in the warmest areas.  That on top of the stuff already pointed out in this thread makes it look like this could be another very impressive warm spell.

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0z ECMWF has mid 80's to low 90's around from Mon-Thur, which is the end of the run. Would likely continue into and through the following weekend too.

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latest GFS really seems to reduce the heat wave. It's more transient too. It does appear to fire back up after this period though.

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Some trend toward bringing in a front late next week or around the weekend and backing the heat down temporarily, especially with north/east extent.  Have to see of it's a blip.

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6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z ECMWF has mid 80's to low 90's around from Mon-Thur, which is the end of the run. Would likely continue into and through the following weekend too.

I might as well move up the start date to 10/2 lol

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50 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Some trend toward bringing in a front late next week or around the weekend and backing the heat down temporarily, especially with north/east extent.  Have to see of it's a blip.

That front would be maybe a 1 day reprieve in the middle of the heat wave on the 06z GFS before building right back up.

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That front would be maybe a 1 day reprieve in the middle of the heat wave on the 06z GFS before building right back up.

12z is coming in with a less aggressive southward push.

Ensembles should have more weight at these distances anyway.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

12z is coming in with a less aggressive southward push.

Ensembles should have more weight at these distances anyway.

Yep and the ensembles don't show much of anything in that period. Considering it is 240 hours out anyways it is a dartboard toss by 06z GFS.

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Generally speaking, record highs for next week are low/mid 80s far north, and upper 80s/low 90s farther south over the bulk of the region.  Mid 90s in the first week of October has been a very rare occurrence (really only happened in some areas of Illinois and south/west) so that would be a special thing if it occurs.

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Wow @ LOT afd.  Rarely if ever seen the "r" word dropped a week in advance.

 

This period of
well above normal temperatures and dry conditions may end up
continuing for much of next week as the upper level ridge builds
over the central and eastern CONUS. This pattern could again even
result in another day or two of near record high temperatures by
the middle of next week.

KJB

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Looks like a 4 to 5 day heat wave, but about 5-10F lower.

Today was so nice. Why anyone would want to lose out on this kind of weather is a mystery to me.

This past heat wave was 7 solid days of hell.

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