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Upstate/Eastern New York

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Decided to make a quick thread before I left. Looks like a possible Winter storm Warning criteria snowfall for all of NYS. 2 low pressure systems will be converging somewhere in the East Coast. Most likely around NYC. CYCLOGENESIS will be insane! Enjoy all!

Top Analogs are some big boys including 2007 and the superstorm of 93.

YVaTqHX.png

 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Decided to make a quick thread before I left. Looks like a possible Winter storm Warning criteria snowfall for all of NYS. 2 low pressure systems will be converging somewhere in the East Coast. Most likely around NYC. CYCLOGENESIS will be insane! Enjoy all!

Top Analogs are some big boys including 2007 and the superstorm of 93.

YVaTqHX.png

 

Yeah if this stays as is I could see all of upstate being under a WSW with 6-12" of snow region wide. Would be awesome! Have a safe and fun trip. I'll take lots of pictures for ya! 

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4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah if this stays as is I could see all of upstate being under a WSW with 6-12" of snow region wide. Would be awesome! Have a safe and fun trip. I'll take lots of pictures for ya! 

Thanks Devin! Hopefully all of NYS gets a foot+. The potential of this storm is unreal. The thing bottoms out sub 980 MB somewhere between NYC and Maine. Going to be an insane storm for almost the entire east coast. Should be a Classic Miller B. I'll go out and say someone gets 40" out of this thing. :mapsnow:

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2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

First 2 analogs are the v-day and 93'!

Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS. The V day storm has a much higher % of similarities at 13.28% vs 12.67% for 1993.

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS.

Without a doubt!  I'd still switch with you in a NY minute!

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS.

 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS.

Let's do some preliminary guesses across upstate.

 

KBUF - 7"

KROC - 11"

KSYR - 12"

KBGM - 16"

KART - 11"

KALB - 13"

 

if if I forgot any feel free to add them! 

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3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

 

Let's do some preliminary guesses across upstate.

 

KBUF - 7"

KROC - 11"

KSYR - 12"

KBGM - 16"

KART - 11"

KALB - 13"

 

if if I forgot any feel free to add them! 

KBUF- 9"

KROC-15"

KSYR- 17"

KBGM- 10" (I think they dryslot)

KART- 12"

KALB- 20"

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New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY...

nam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif

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NAM sure does. Intense 2" to 4" per hour snowfall rates Tuesday morning. Wraparound Tuesday night and Wednesday could push some areas to 3'. We pray.

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY...

nam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif

What can go wrong George? Everything seems to be in place except the SW responsible wont be ashore till this evening so....

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Definitely some dry slot potential somewhere between the transfers. The main dog is the strong coastal that is taking over, the secondary jackpot is the deformation zone on the northwest quadrant. Wherever that sets up will get some big totals too.

20yuwl2.png

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY...

nam_namer_084_precip_p60.gif

George, why do you think the 12z run was so juiced compared to the 6z run? Not that it matters cause it's the NAM outside of 24 hours so it means nothing what so ever.

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Quote
Models are also showing plentiful Atlantic moisture being
advected westward over our region as the low shifts to our east.
Plenty of cold air will be in place and will also be reinforce by
northerly cold advection to bring an increasing probability and
confidence for several inches of accumulating snowfall. Further
supporting this increased confidence are the mean COOP snowfall
amounts from the 00z Top 15 CIPS analogs ranging from 8-12 inches
across our forecast area. The 90% percentile of these analogs while
having a very low chance of occuring at least looking at the storm
from this far out shows a very healthy 2+ foot fall across much of
New York. The storm is still 3 days away leaving plenty of time for
models to shift the track and storm intensity. Have added mention of
this storm to the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Stay Tuned to future
forecast updates through this weekend. Outside of the snow,
temperatures Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night will remain
below normal with lows dipping into the teens and highs on Tuesday
again only rising into the 20s.

 

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Anyone know why the GFS seems to halt northward progression of precip shield. Seems to hit a wall. Downsloping? Dry air? I remember the infamous Dec. 1992 storm where we were supposed to get 2' and we got maybe 6" from storm itself due to downsloping off the Catskills. LE made up for a bit of the low totals later.

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12z actually favors W/CNY. BUF to ROC jackpots with 1'+ with pretty high ratios. Speaking of ratios anyone know what they'll look like with this storm? I'd imagine with how cold it will be we'll probably see some 15:1-20:1 ratios across much of upstate? So even .75" -1" QPF could easily mean 1'+

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Unfortunately for the capital district, I will be there this week for work.  My track record for being in a jackpot area for big storms is not good. The few exceptions was VD2.0 here and the two back to back 20+" snowstorms, Xmas and a week later, near Albany back in 2001 or 02.  Otherwise I tend to be in localized minima areas, or completely shafted like March 1993.

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