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EPA/NJ/DE General Winter Discussions

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Thought I would start off a general winter thread here.

Latest  Wxsim program with 6z GFS/NAM mix has flurries starting late Sunday afternoon with some light snow to ZR by midnight about 0.24" of liquid falls with temps below 32. They look to rise above the freezing mark by 6am. Then another 0.23" falls as rain. Nothing on the mid-week event at this point. But temps remaining below freezing day and night from Thursday through Saturday. Great pattern developing for cold, storms and rumor of storms. Quite a change from last year!!

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Before/if the pattern relaxes around the 22nd like some ens suggest, I see more of an issue with mixed precipitation especially ice as opposed to snow like the Euro is showing above. That EPO is funneling fresh cold dense air into the region with return flow around HP being hit with overrunning and possible dual low structures with strong CAD signatures. Guess we'll see but I don't see this as a truly snowy pattern but more snow to mix (ice/sleet) to rain etc type of pattern. At least we have some action and temps aren't AN like last year anyway.


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GFS is 1" or < for that same time period of Dr Yes I want to show tons of snow map.

Mid week system now squashed on the south side of Hatteras, and it's doing pretty darn good with the Sunday-Monday system. 

 

 

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Latest Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM took a turn colder after showing no snow on previous run now has light snow and flurries starting by 4pm and becoming briefly heavy between 3 and 4 am on Monday morning with 1.8" of snow at 4am then a mix of IP/ZR at 7am with a temp of 30.8. The temp rises above freezing by 10am with around 0.52" falling with temps below freezing.

Below is text output

WXSIM text forecast for East Nantmeal, initialized at  5:55 PM Dec 10, 2016

Sunday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 slight chance of snow in the evening, then a mix of snow, freezing rain, sleet,
 and rain likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight.
 Wind south-southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or
 ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any freezing rain
 accumulation.
 
 Monday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A mix
 of freezing rain, rain, and sleet likely in the morning, then a chance of rain
 in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 30. Wind southwest
 around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. No ice (on ground)
 accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches.

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Euro says hold off on the "pattern is looking awesome" party for quite a while. Negative PNA is locked in meaning storm track is generally to our North and West for the foreseeable future. Cold shots followed by cold rain or snow to rain events will be the rule for extreme SE PA. If you are well inland or upstate, much better chances for significant snows and frozen events. One promising sign is no torch. Just seasonal/avg stuff for the most part as I've been alluding to as an overall theme for this winter.



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You have to wonder if Larry Cosgrove is going to be correct, he was never a fan of it getting cold for very long and has been predicting a warm up in mid December (or around Christmas). His winter outlook was very warm and overall snowless for the Northeastern US. Have to see how things evolve as we move forward since there has been alot of model volatility recently from run to run.

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You have to wonder if Larry Cosgrove is going to be correct, he was never a fan of it getting cold for very long and has been predicting a warm up in mid December (or around Christmas). His winter outlook was very warm and overall snowless for the Northeastern US. Have to see how things evolve as we move forward since there has been alot of model volatility recently from run to run.


He was opposed to this week's BN stretch which is why I argued against him. Overall late month thru much of January he may end up being correct. I disagree with "slowness for the Northeast" tho. Average winter overall with bulk of snow backloaded.

Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2

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Steve - could not disagree with you more - I love the pattern!! Lots of cold around and rumors of storms. Forecasting challenges for sure and of course it may not have a major snow in your backyard or mine. But that does not mean it will not be wintry. I can see events where the city gets an inch and slop and the NW burbs not too far out see "plowable" events. I really see us having a more "traditional" N and W winter which of course means it's not supposed to snow much in the I95 corridor before the New Year.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

You have to wonder if Larry Cosgrove is going to be correct, he was never a fan of it getting cold for very long and has been predicting a warm up in mid December (or around Christmas). His winter outlook was very warm and overall snowless for the Northeastern US. Have to see how things evolve as we move forward since there has been alot of model volatility recently from run to run.

Ron the only problem with his forecast is it looks very snowy for much of the northeast....now maybe not for the I95 corridor from DC to NYC but inland not too far in the Northeast does very well!

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Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM and 6z GFS has flurries off and on today with temps remaining below freezing all day. Light snow by 1am temp 28.8. ZR/IP mix at 4am temp 29.4 with 0.25" w.e. fallen at that point. 7am ZR 31.0 (0.53"). Temps getting to freezing by 9am with 0.64". Then plain rain another 0.12" before ending. Then some very cold weather to end the week - low 12 on Thursday AM. Then a brief period of ice to heavy rain on the 17th to the 18th with 1.70" of liquid. This could help put a little dent into what will be an annual deficit this year.

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On 12/10/2016 at 11:05 AM, RedSky said:

That Lucy map is so overdone one has to subtract 5-10" good grief.

 

Subtracting 5-10" from the starting fantasy map wasn't even enough this week is going to be ugly as far as snow is concerned. Strike one today , strike two mid week and next weekend maybe a brief bit of snow before a rainy mild torch. This next week is a textbook example of wasting arctic air on a terrible 80's like pattern.

 

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Subtracting 5-10" from the starting fantasy map wasn't even enough this week is going to be ugly as far as snow is concerned. Strike one today , strike two mid week and next weekend maybe a brief bit of snow before a rainy mild torch. This next week is a textbook example of wasting arctic air on a terrible 80's like pattern.

 


2017 is going to rock! :-D

Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2

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Subtracting 5-10" from the starting fantasy map wasn't even enough this week is going to be ugly as far as snow is concerned. Strike one today , strike two mid week and next weekend maybe a brief bit of snow before a rainy mild torch. This next week is a textbook example of wasting arctic air on a terrible 80's like pattern.

 




Btw, the "new and improved" Euro model has a big time day 10 threat. You in? :-D

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Dashing through the snow in a one horse open sleigh....the latest  12z EURO has a nice early Christmas week snow cover on the ground here in NW Chesco....of course as Mr. Bastardi likes to say - you don't shovel model output!!

4" on the ground by 7pm on the 17th

12" on the ground by 7am on the 21st

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