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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Winter!


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This was buffalo this morning 

 

 The ECMWF has shown a good
deal of inconsistency with this system, as previous runs looked more
similar to the current 12Z GFS. With this in mind, went closer to
GFS based guidance with snow likely for Wednesday.

 

In the wake of this system cold air will flood into the Great Lakes
Thursday and Friday. This will be the coldest air of the season,
with 850mb temps plummeting to -20C or colder. A look at sounding
climatology, values this cold would be close to record minimum at
850 hPa, with mid-December moving record-minimum average around -
20C. Given this, will keep temperatures below guidance for the
Thursday through Friday night period.
This will translate into highs in the teens and lows in the single
numbers away from the immediate lakeshores. There may also be a few
sub-zero readings within the traditionally colder interior spots. In
addition wind chills both days will likely fall below zero.
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A day on the lake effect snow chase in WNY...

Left Amherst/Snyder around noon with a very slight dusting on the ground.  Picked up Center Rd. in East Aurora, only an inch or two in the village.  Ran into the lake effect band about 2 miles south of East Aurora near South Wales.  Pretty much 1-2"/hr. snow as soon as we ran into the band.  Continued south on Center Road through Holland and down to Genesee Road, eventually stopping at the Erie County Forest in East Concord.  Max snow rate during this stretch was probably a tad under 3"/hr.  Snow depth at East Concord was estimated at 24-30" (official spotter report from today at 3PM for this area was 33").  Started hike in heavy snow, which transitioned into bright blue skies after about 10 minutes as the band moved just to our north.  Hiked the next couple hours under clear skies and temps in low 20's.  Band moved back overhead with about 1/2 mile left in hike.  Hiked the last stretch in very heavy snow with low visibility as sun was starting to set.  Drive back home on the 219 was in the band until about 3 miles south of Hamburg.  

Here's a few pics: first one from the Erie County Forest parking area facing east down Genesee Rd; second one at the "Bridge Too Far" in the forest; and third during a sunny part of the hike.

 

Genesee_ECF_121016.JPG

FullSizeRender.jpg

ECF_121016.jpeg

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000
NOUS41 KBUF 102011
PNSBUF
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-110811-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
311 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
   CATTARAUGUS           36.0  1230 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   NAPOLI                34.0   152 PM 12/10  PUBLIC
   PERRYSBURG            30.0   200 PM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   ELLICOTTVILLE         30.0   122 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   1 NNE HUMPHREY        24.0   230 PM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 W FRANKLINVILLE     13.5  1044 AM 12/10  3 DAY STORM TOTAL

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
   2 E SINCLAIRVILLE     30.0   119 PM 12/10  STORM CHASER
   FINDLEY LAKE          17.8  1200 PM 12/10  PUBLIC

...ERIE COUNTY...
   SPRINGVILLE           36.0  1208 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   EAST CONCORD          33.0   200 PM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SARDINIA              20.5  1115 AM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
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...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
   CATTARAUGUS           36.0  1230 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   NAPOLI                34.0   152 PM 12/10  PUBLIC
   PERRYSBURG            30.0   200 PM 12/10  COOP OBSERVER
   ELLICOTTVILLE         30.0   122 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA
   1 NNE HUMPHREY        24.0   230 PM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   3 W FRANKLINVILLE     13.5  1044 AM 12/10  3 DAY STORM TOTAL

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
   2 E SINCLAIRVILLE     30.0   119 PM 12/10  STORM CHASER
   FINDLEY LAKE          17.8  1200 PM 12/10  PUBLIC

...ERIE COUNTY...
   SPRINGVILLE           36.0  1208 PM 12/10  SOCIAL MEDIA  
   EAST CONCORD          33.0   200 PM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SARDINIA              20.5  1115 AM 12/10  TRAINED SPOTTER
25 min (18.5 mi) via US-219 N  :weep:

https://www.google.com/maps/vt/data=RfCSdfNZ0LFPrHSm0ublXdzhdrDFhtmHhN1u-gM,dXRXt0O6oMeph_1fK6WiKA1Ik4Yuk9K3ak6ATZOmQbkeiq9YHaD4cLhGD40BgxIhYOFo0ZNm8i0UZTZ6GjeFr5Gk2WxJMZuuI_MnsqQtq23fth8jd29fOCFu5JZSa_5JC-ba73EXqpklFmw3RFDqQnhPbHa08ZQun6z0Aojw1-M_Bs5o-jpYuovBtYitkLq3avh-vF4uUdA7uQAzD785qNoH36GEZFQ,KsbjKoeGVf4S0xLSgFfRnO64A2zL7XfmqoeL357X5ECWPxBZm3ELzy23f7On5dFiBeItO48U0Huwyvch3xUCg73i_9AccwP2lb8ex_yVX7kGaRNpoCwcbTMjJeRlFVL4TPtKI98illTwTrlLDypX86Q3Isj81JUiO0hRB5XXMBIJ-8m7tSHhSsRmcTfIR2cucMI4RGsJ-F0uGqILOk121DB0cidoAAxXZL35i2LLkcOa6ZW-3aSild7AI2eTJY4OIKItfr6o_8JcHefMKLhqWW5SclWERnzszUU4KERBoNbIS3avv_-6yWV-l8CZreWBTZSTQbKQpuWzATmh4q7UwTetfUouCG6VycSTmT2XJR-kKNczK1VmYJ9jpeznn2nUb5TqZygDTIoLy2pkO01gpzdPePjOpjAE3ACmKS8Iwb7Ciw?scale=1&h=200&w=632

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32 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

A day on the lake effect snow chase in WNY...

Left Amherst/Snyder around noon with a very slight dusting on the ground.  Picked up Center Rd. in East Aurora, only an inch or two in the village.  Ran into the lake effect band about 2 miles south of East Aurora near South Wales.  Pretty much 1-2"/hr. snow as soon as we ran into the band.  Continued south on Center Road through Holland and down to Genesee Road, eventually stopping at the Erie County Forest in East Concord.  Max snow rate during this stretch was probably a tad under 3"/hr.  Snow depth at East Concord was estimated at 24-30" (official spotter report from today at 3PM for this area was 33").  Started hike in heavy snow, which transitioned into bright blue skies after about 10 minutes as the band moved just to our north.  Hiked the next couple hours under clear skies and temps in low 20's.  Band moved back overhead with about 1/2 mile left in hike.  Hiked the last stretch in very heavy snow with low visibility as sun was starting to set.  Drive back home on the 219 was in the band until about 3 miles south of Hamburg.  

Here's a few pics: first one from the Erie County Forest parking area facing east down Genesee Rd; second one at the "Bridge Too Far" in the forest; and third during a sunny part of the hike.

 

Genesee_ECF_121016.JPG

FullSizeRender.jpg

ECF_121016.jpeg

Great pics Bumble!

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Having to work late but definitely going on a chase tonight to Springville to catch that band and see how much snow there is. Might not be until midnight but it should be a fun trip! 


That band will probably closing in on the city by midnight. I get off work at 11 and if it looks promising I'll be cruising around the south towns.


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3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:


That band will probably closing in on the city by midnight. I get off work at 11 and if it looks promising I'll be cruising around the south towns.


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No model has it that far north until tomorrow morning. It's going to be a close call for the city IMO.

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Judging by this radar that band should hit Buffalo all night, but no model shows it happening. Upper level winds are all over and start to turn offshore tomorrow morning which limits extent as mentioned by KBUF, those close to lake erie shoreline will be hit the hardest.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/oh/cleveland/cle/?region=bgm

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https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/on/king-city/wkr/?region=bgm

Winds out of W in Canada, SW near Cleveland. I don't think the band makes it that far north in the next few hours at least.



I dunno it sure looks like it's screaming north even with the curvature kink. I'm thinking Hamburg and OP will getting hit by 10.


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