Chinook Posted Sunday at 01:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:23 AM Supertyphoon Champi earlier with over 120kt of base velocity near Guam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Sunday at 01:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:27 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 AM Narrowly escaped a big time hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted Sunday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:07 PM 10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Narrowly escaped a big time hit. Sometimes the tightness/RI *saves* and area from a bigger hit. Melissa over Jamaica was similar. If Melissa had be a long-tracked Cabo Verde, it would have been much larger when striking Jamaica. Sure, it may not have been as intense since multiple ERCs would preclude its sub-900 mb intensity, but a large Cat 4 impacting the entire island vs. only 1/3 of the islands getting Cat 3+ winds is not the same. Also, the wrn 1/3 of Jamaica is significantly less populated, and one of its main airports went largely unscathed, and the other being on the N coast on the wrn side of the island had sig less impact than if it were on the S side. Compare to Gilbert at cat 3 in Sep 1988 that cut down the full length of the Jamaica E-W w/ the entire land devastated. 80% of home lost their roofs. At least w/ Melissa on about 1/2 of the island, one could find relief, relatively speaking, short-term before full aid arrived and was distributed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:20 PM Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted yesterday at 06:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:15 PM category 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted yesterday at 06:20 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:20 PM Incredible model battle here. I have a feeling I know which one is going to win I am assuming that the AI models use historical tracks and climatology more so then the physics models. From my understanding of AI. Not your typical analogs but everything that’s possible. If anyone has more information on the subject I would love to hear it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted yesterday at 06:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:54 PM 27 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I am assuming that the AI models use historical tracks and climatology more so then the physics models. From my understanding of AI. Not your typical analogs but everything that’s possible. If anyone has more information on the subject I would love to hear it. . Yeah it's mostly machine learning data correlations and such as far as I've heard, but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway. Actually there was a little segment about the deep mind and Isiais on NPR this morning and they were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programers with meteorology experience, mostly neural network engineers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Yeah it's mostly machine learning data correlations and such as far as I've heard, but I'm not sure that the specifics are really well understood by the weather community anyway. Actually there was a little segment about the deep mind and Isiais on NPR this morning and they were saying how mostly the project is worked on by non-meteorologist, not even programers with meteorology experience, mostly neural network engineers People are now talking about how Google Deep-mind ensembles beat the other ones on Hurricane Isaias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Textbook truck tire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Textbook truck tireJTWC has it at 135kt currently. I would say it should be 155kt. This has been one of the most underestimated TCs I have seen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Impressive large eye that continues to warm. Deep surrounding band of coldest CTs. If you'll notice the geometric pattern within the low-level clouds in the eye, most likely the result of multiple rotating mesovorticies currently riding around the eyewall. I'd imagine this is Cat 5 bound again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Obviously Taiwan is used to heavy rainfall in the higher terrain on the East side of the island, but 20+40" of rainfall is going to cause some serious flooding I can only imagine.Also check out that rain shadow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago JTWC had this at 155kt this morning, and so that's an incredible situtation, it's much above the 137kt cutoff for Category 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 53 minutes ago Share Posted 53 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Chinook said: JTWC had this at 155kt this morning, and so that's an incredible situtation, it's much above the 137kt cutoff for Category 5. Pressure data from a buoy on the edge of the eye sugguests sub-900mb pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 52 minutes ago Share Posted 52 minutes ago Based on old recon finding lots of sub 900 storms in that basin and this having that very high end look it likely was below 890. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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