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Fall+Banter


Ginx snewx

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Interesting tidbit about WPC and the snow probability graphics that BOX, GYX, and others are offering in the winter: of the 70 pieces of guidance, 26 are the SREF members. They were kept mostly because they perform well in mesoscale events in the Great Lakes. 

Another example of how one solution doesn't always work for all. We've discussed at length on here how the SREF gradually got calibrated more for the meso than synoptic (focus on severe over winter).

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Interesting tidbit about WPC and the snow probability graphics that BOX, GYX, and others are offering in the winter: of the 70 pieces of guidance, 26 are the SREF members. They were kept mostly because they perform well in mesoscale events in the Great Lakes. 

Another example of how one solution doesn't always work for all. We've discussed at length on here how the SREF gradually got calibrated more for the meso than synoptic (focus on severe over winter).

I'm still a big fan of one core with multiple members. I think right now where we are technology wise....that is the way to go. Having two cores just seems to invite too many unrealistic solutions. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tv stations said drought improved from that one epic rain band that hit towns where few live as the map depicts in 2 counties and TBH your area hasn't been dry or in drought.The majority of the state continues to worsen. 

8 plus inches of rain in OCT is not one epic rain band and sw Ct has had a lot of rain too. These maps are very very odd

coco.png

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm still a big fan of one core with multiple members. I think right now where we are technology wise....that is the way to go. Having two cores just seems to invite too many unrealistic solutions. 

And then probabilities of an outcome are truly probabilities because you only have one core. Instead of possibly being contaminated by some rogue model physics of one core.

If we really are moving towards more probabilistic forecasting.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it helps convection, but the NCAR ensemble seems to do well, and that is one ARW core with 10 members.

It has huge use across Northeast WFOs from what I know. Can't speak for the rest of the country but I imagine it's similar. Unfortunately, NCAR's funding for running the model is set to run out soon. 

It went from getting support to be run twice a day to disappearing altogether in less than a year. It would be a real shame.

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

8 plus inches of rain in OCT is not one epic rain band and sw Ct has had a lot of rain too. These maps are very very odd

coco.png

Most of that 8 inches  in that one small area fell in that one rain event. 80% of the state was BN for rain in Oct.. so I'm not sure what you're arguing. Far ECT has been wet all summer. We don't live there.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It has huge use across Northeast WFOs from what I know. Can't speak for the rest of the country but I imagine it's similar. Unfortunately, NCAR's funding for running the model is set to run out soon. 

It went from getting support to be run twice a day to disappearing altogether in less than a year. It would be a real shame.

Jeez really? That would be a shame. I wonder if the notoriety of the ensemble can spark some money headed their way. I really like it. Dammit, that would suck.

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of that 8 inches  in that one small area fell in that one rain event. 80% of the state was BN for rain in Oct.. so I'm not sure what you're arguing. Far ECT has been wet all summer. We don't live there.

when your 300 ft well runs out stop by I will fill your water jugs.

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Station Number Station Name Daily Precip Sum in.6 Multi-Day Precip in. Total Precip in. Daily Snow Sum in. # of Reports Latitude Longitude Multi-Day Overlap Warning
 CT-NL-6 New London 1.0 NNW 8.19   8.19 0.0 32 41.34298 72.10315  
 CT-NL-8 Uncasville-Oxoboxo Valley 1.6 ENE 7.98   7.98 0.0 32 41.455502 72.097176  
 CT-WN-8 Moosup 1.7 NE 7.64   7.64 0.0 32 41.731808 71.846671  
 CT-NL-22 Central Waterford 2.7 SSW 7.34   7.34 0.0 32 41.3085 72.1462  
 CT-NL-10 Norwich 2.5 NNE 7.06   7.06 0.0 32 41.584855 72.076749  
 CT-WN-4 East Killingly 1.3 SW 6.94   6.94 0.0 32 41.8381339 71.8391374  
 CT-WN-6 Dayville 2.0 ENE 6.83   6.83 0.0 32 41.85585 71.851662  
 CT-NL-21 Griswold 0.9 N 6.65   6.65 0.0 31 41.608825 71.930861  
 CT-NL-17 Waterford 2.2 N 6.63 1.98 8.61 0.0 28 41.376831 72.127681  
 CT-WN-2 North Grosvenor Dale 1.7 SSE 6.59   6.59 0.0 28 41.962273 71.887001  
 CT-NL-23 Mystic 1.4 W 6.55   6.55 0.0 32 41.3548393249512 71.9789657592773  
 CT-NL-7 Uncasville-Oxoboxo Valley 5.6 W 6.39   6.39 0.0 32 41.437346 72.232349  
 CT-WN-11 Scotland 2.3 SSW 6.10   6.10 0.0 32 41.667288 72.09986  
 CT-MD-11 Westbrook Center 1.5 NE 5.72   5.72 0.0 32 41.2977 72.42755  
 CT-NL-18 Stonington 0.5 NNE 5.60   5.60 0.0 30 41.340111 71.899639  
 CT-TL-4 Mansfield Center 1.9 SW 5.55   5.55 0.0 32 41.741399 72.217436  
 CT-NH-21 East Haven 3.5 SSW 5.48   5.48 0.0 31 41.248236 72.888156  
 CT-MD-5 Westbrook Center 1.1 N 5.47 0.45 5.92 0.0 28 41.2965 72.44133333  
 CT-NH-16 Milford 1.8 E 4.56   4.56 0.0 32 41.2242279052734 73.0273895263672  
 CT-NL-24 Stonington 1.4 NNW 4.56   4.56 0.0 12 41.3536 71.9116  
 CT-WN-10 South Windham 1.3 NNE 4.52 1.34 5.86 0.0 31 41.701831 72.17651  
 CT-FR-35 Darien 1.8 ENE 4.49   4.49 0.0 32 41.062171 73.44909  
 CT-FR-37 Stamford 0.4 WNW 4.43   4.43 0.0 32 41.098001 73.559962  
 CT-FR-20 Westport 2.5 ENE 4.41   4.41 0.0 31 41.1328 73.3003  
 CT-NL-19 Mystic 0.9 W 4.40 2.06 6.46 0.0 26 41.3584518432617 71.9693374633789  
 CT-MD-2 Portland 0.9 S 4.28   4.28 0.0 32 41.570874 72.626044  
 CT-TL-18 Hebron 5.3 NW 4.17   4.17 0.0 32 41.7196 72.4312  
 CT-FR-3 New Canaan 1.9 ENE 4.01   4.01 0.0 32 41.148602 73.459089  
 CT-FR-25 Norwalk 2.9 NNW 3.81   3.81 0.0 32 41.130347 73.448285  
 CT-FR-39 Stamford 4.2 S 3.56 0.52 4.08 0.0 21 41.0377883911133 73.5681762695313  
 CT-HR-40 Glastonbury Center 4.0 ENE 3.56   3.56 0.0 32 41.7229 72.5284  
 CT-NH-29 Hamden 3.0 WSW 3.56   3.56 0.0 32 41.365163 72.955572  
 CT-NH-22 Prospect 0.5 SW 3.55   3.55 0.0 32 41.497343480587 72.9860588908196  
 CT-FR-29 Ridgefield 1.9 SSE 3.46   3.46 0.0 32 41.247598 73.487427  
 CT-FR-32 Monroe 0.8 W 3.34 0.00 3.34 0.0 30 41.334397 73.22345  
 CT-TL-14 Storrs 1.5 SW 3.21 0.80 4.01 0.0 28 41.79113889 72.27802778  
 CT-FR-42 Monroe 0.1 SE 3.20   3.20 0.0 32 41.331866 73.205971  
 CT-FR-23 Shelton 1.3 W 3.14   3.14 0.1 32 41.305334 73.16345  
 CT-NH-26 Prospect 1.5 NW 3.07   3.07 1.3 32 41.518844 72.997393  
 CT-HR-22 East Hartford 1.3 E 3.04   3.04 0.2 32 41.7571630328894 72.5916481018066  
 CT-FR-43 Bethel 0.5 E 3.02   3.02 0.0 32 41.37032
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