• Member Statistics

    16,258
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PoZitron20
    Newest Member
    PoZitron20
    Joined
ORH_wxman

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

Recommended Posts

Daily sea ice anomaly and 12-month running mean from Zeke Hausfather. The 12-month mean has dropped more quickly in recent years drven by reduced cool season sea ice.

seaicedaily.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DMI 80N temps finally fell to normal for the first time since last summer. CFSv2 weeklies showed this happening a while back (starting at least in early/mid-April). The next couple of weeks look fairly cool compared to what we've had recently (wrt normal). W3/W4 shows some action -- so we'll see if that pans out as we're coming upon the critical period for early season melt ponds in about 3-4 weeks.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Volume topped out at 20.7K km3. Terrible. Currently, there is a 1.6K gap with 2011, the previous lowest record. Near to slightly below average temps will help close a bit of that over the next 7-10 days. After that, signals are emerging for the massive NAO block to retrograde into a position to help produce a +DA by around the middle of the month and rapid warming over most of the basin. The GEFS, EPS and CFSv2 weeklies are on board for it atm, so this will have to be watched. A +DA going into the later half of this month would be bad news, as the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas won't offer up much resistance with a near total lack of MYI this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

wouldn't be surprised to see a cooler than expected outcome by years end.  

we have a Republican in office now, Geo-engineering for the win.   It's much easier to artificially cool a small area (like the north pole), than it would be other larger regions. 

and aerosols aren't the only option.  no population out there, so they can play around all they want. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

wouldn't be surprised to see a cooler than expected outcome by years end.  

we have a Republican in office now, Geo-engineering for the win.   It's much easier to artificially cool a small area (like the north pole), than it would be other larger regions. 

and aerosols aren't the only option.  no population out there, so they can play around all they want. 

 

You can't be serious about geoengineering. The arctic basin is still a huge area even if it's smaller than the U.S.

 

A more important development is the cold weather that has been over most of the basin this month...particularly the Asian/Eurasian side as that side is typically the first to experience melt ponds and the cold weather is delaying the start of melt pond season there. That could put a dent in chances at a new record this year despite the record low volume entering this season. The chukchi is a bit above normal though, and that is the thinnest ice, so we'll see if that offsets it some, but the cold is forecast to remain quite stubborn for at least another week over the ESS/Laptev/Kara.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that is a pretty favorable melt pattern after day 7. we'll see if it's real

Yeah, EPS and GEFS are showing a pretty strong +AD pattern from D6 onwards. The CFSv2 has been barking on this for weeks and was for the current cold spell as well. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies as it would pretty much jump-start the melting season. Interestingly, looking back, the first 12 days or so of May 2012 were pretty cool as well before it flipped warm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yeah, EPS and GEFS are showing a pretty strong +AD pattern from D6 onwards. The CFSv2 has been barking on this for weeks and was for the current cold spell as well. It'll be interesting to see if that verifies as it would pretty much jump-start the melting season. Interestingly, looking back, the first 12 days or so of May 2012 were pretty cool as well before it flipped warm.

In March I posted a CFSv2 forecast for April-June that called for above normal heights over the arctic. Too early for verification but that forecast doesn't look bad currently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, bluewave said:

So which June weather pattern shows up in the Arctic this year? The record dipole pattern of 2007-2012 or the more favorable lower pressure regime of 2013-2016. The other option is an intermediate pattern between those two extremes.

the gfes is solidly on the dipole train going into june

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_11.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/17/2017 at 7:58 AM, bluewave said:

So which June weather pattern shows up in the Arctic this year? The record dipole pattern of 2007-2012 or the more favorable lower pressure regime of 2013-2016. The other option is an intermediate pattern between those two extremes.

 

Here is the past 30 days. Overall an intermediate regime, but with persistent flow from the Pacific to the Atlantic side.

nh500mb30day52217.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro ensembles want to establish a pretty good dipole pattern for the next 4-7 days...it would keep warm air flowing into the Pacific side of the arctic. That has been the warmest region so far this month...the Eurasian/Atlantic side has been in the deep freeze. But the thinnest ice is from Beaufort to Chukchi and that's where the warmth has been so we'll have to see if that ends up jump-starting things soon.  

 

We have some catching up to do in the Beaufort....you can also see how slow the Atlantic sector is this year with the cold spring.

 

 

www.GIFCreator.me_k1NT1k.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles want to establish a pretty good dipole pattern for the next 4-7 days...it would keep warm air flowing into the Pacific side of the arctic. That has been the warmest region so far this month...the Eurasian/Atlantic side has been in the deep freeze. But the thinnest ice is from Beaufort to Chukchi and that's where the warmth has been so we'll have to see if that ends up jump-starting things soon.  

 

We have some catching up to do in the Beaufort....you can also see how slow the Atlantic sector is this year with the cold spring.

 

 

www.GIFCreator.me_k1NT1k.gif

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Unless I'm just not reading that right, it sure looks as if the concentration level is much higher across the board with the exception of Hudson Bay.

The lowest concentrations in 2016 at this point was showing up mostly in the Atlantic/Eurasian sector...and it's been really cold this year so far there, so it's probably not showing much melt ponding yet. We'll see how much that matters in the next few weeks...the warmth in the Beaufort/Chukchi could help 2017 play catchup a bit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Much colder pattern across the Arctic this May than last. We actually have below normal temps for a change at the pole which we haven't seen for a while. It allowed the extent to fall behind the pace of last year at this time. If we can avoid the strong dipole pattern in June, it could let the 2012 record min to stand for another season. We'll see...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It has to get going pretty quick if 2012 wants to be in the discussion. We'll want to see a pretty widespread warm pattern sustain over more than just the Chukchi/Beaufort...preferably over the Eurasian side too to get the melt ponding feedback going.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the differences between 2016 and 2017 on Cryosat2, we can try and find areas that might be more or less likely to melt out.

 

I think there's a good chance that we have a more intact arm of ice that extends into the ESS this year vs last year. In contrast the ice is thinner in the Laptev this year, so the melt could go further poleward on that side. Keep in mind this is from April as cryosat2 stops taking measurements as meltponding starts in May.

 

2txo1.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has to get going pretty quick if 2012 wants to be in the discussion. We'll want to see a pretty widespread warm pattern sustain over more than just the Chukchi/Beaufort...preferably over the Eurasian side too to get the melt ponding feedback going.

Forecasts are not that reliable currently so we will have to see how it plays out over the next couple of weeks. Currently I'm leaning for somewhere between 2007 and 2012. Volume is low but melting progress has been slow for both sea ice and snow. That would keep my 2018-19 guess for the next min alive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks to me like most of the ice is thicker than last year. It's just the ice north of Greenland and Ellesmere that is much thinner but that ice never melts out anyways. The only important area that looks thinner is the Laptev which looks a little thinner. That could get things going early there.

But the Chuchki, Beaufort, Barents, Kara and East Siberian all look thicker overall. Especially the northern Beaufort and northern Chuchki which look much thicker. And those two areas are critical in August/September.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Stable 5-wave pattern showing up on ensembles now for the first week of June. That leaves the door open to ridging over/near the pole but doesn't guarantee it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Stable 5-wave pattern showing up on ensembles now for the first week of June. That leaves the door open to ridging over/near the pole but doesn't guarantee it.

This is about the time we saw a pattern flip to lower arctic heights last year. Maybe we will see the reverse this year...or maybe not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Area tanking fast as melt ponding sets up. -157k yesterday and -117k. Now in 2nd place behind 2016. Kara/Barents look to be getting hit, with some contribution from the Beaufort and Hudson Bay.

Model skill scores are still in the tank and generally unreliable past D4 right now, but they do more or less show more widespread warmth continuing through the next 4 days. The EC is suffering less than the GFS is, but still taking significant hits to its scores.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2012 cliff started in a few days. It looks like the forecast is pointing towards increasingly hostile conditions in the next week (recent model skill caveat applies here) which might give that 2012 dive a run for its money. 2017 is starting with less ice in the Chukchi, but more in the Kara and Barents. Preconditioning is somewhat less this year, but the ice is notably thinner due to warm winter weather. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out as we head into the most critical period for ponding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wipneus' daily sea ice volume anomaly chart updated through May. The volume gap between 2017 and other years narrowed in May due to a relatively slow start to the melting season vs recent years. Melting accelerated though in the second half of May leaving a record low well within reach this year depending on the weather.

piomas-trnd3.png_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/3/2017 at 6:34 AM, chubbs said:

Wipneus' daily sea ice volume anomaly chart updated through May. The volume gap between 2017 and other years narrowed in May due to a relatively slow start to the melting season vs recent years. Melting accelerated though in the second half of May leaving a record low well within reach this year depending on the weather.

piomas-trnd3.png_thumb.png

Still a pretty decent gap there. Upcoming D3-D5 pattern look conducive to the development of widespread ponding pretty much basin-wide. Pretty similar to the 2012 pattern, just a couple of days later in the calendar, with the addition of the Atlantic side getting hit at the same time. Depending on how long that pattern lasts, we could see a pretty quick swan dive in area/extent/volume figures. The Pacific side is particularly weak and thin with FYI this year and it'll take less to demolish that ice cover than it typically does.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The higher thicknesses relative to normal are getting exported in the Fram, according to the May PIOMAS update. Across the Arctic Basin, lots of thinner than normal ice.

IMG_20170605_144618.thumb.jpg.2a99d14ad21314f0a0663fe023d3a110.jpg

From Zack Labe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/5/2017 at 2:48 PM, Snow_Miser said:

The higher thicknesses relative to normal are getting exported in the Fram, according to the May PIOMAS update. Across the Arctic Basin, lots of thinner than normal ice.

IMG_20170605_144618.thumb.jpg.2a99d14ad21314f0a0663fe023d3a110.jpg

From Zack Labe.

That's brutal. Will we even have any ice come late September?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.