Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

[WolfStock1]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Current State of Sea Ice Cover | Earth

 

OK thanks.

I see the description of the two: "Sea ice extent is the integral sum of the areas of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration, while sea ice area is the integral sum of the product of ice concentration and area of all grid cells with at least 15% ice concentration."

I *think* I get the distinction but not sure.   Is it the case that "extent" include 100% of every grid cell, for cells with > 15% concentration; whereas "area" includes only the area of ice itself within all those cells?

(thus why extent is larger than area)

(I had been using the NSIDC page which only shows extent - https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph)

 

[bluewave]

Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record.

This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic. 

Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent.

Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding.  
 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

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For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social

 

10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026

 

Arctic Temperatures

https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/june-2026-arctic-and-alaska-climate

June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years. 

The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope.

Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time.

Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record.

This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic. 

Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent.

Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding.  
 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social

 

10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026

 

Arctic Temperatures

https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/june-2026-arctic-and-alaska-climate

June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years. 

The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope.

Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time.

Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature. 
 

 

 

Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Meanwhile, per DMI charts back to 1958, the mean temp. for the Arctic N of 80N continues being the coldest on record (I’ve been looking at all years’ charts) thus continuing the coldest overall there since the 2nd half of May:

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Thanks, Chris

 Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris

 Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.

 

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php

As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.

 

 

Thanks, Chris.

 From that ECMWF “data information sheet” link, the 80N+ mean is strongly biased toward the portion closer to 90N and thus shouldn’t be used for determining actual mean. I’m educatedly guessing that that’s the reason for its cold bias. OTOH, it also says comparing one year to another, which I’ve also been doing, can still be done:

“Since the data are gridded, it is straightforward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North.

However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic.

The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Chris.

 From that ECMWF “data information sheet” link, the 80N+ mean is strongly biased toward the portion closer to 90N and thus shouldn’t be used for determining actual mean. I’m educatedly guessing that that’s the reason for its cold bias. OTOH, it also says comparing one year to another, which I’ve also been doing, can still be done:

“Since the data are gridded, it is straightforward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North.

However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic.

The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”

This is the actual ERA 5 temperature map which produced the climate record for June 2026. The Pacific Arctic area to the north of Alaska did have its coldest June since the 1940s as I mentioned in my first post.

But you can see how the total area from 80N to 90N had zones closest to the warmest on record on the Atlantic side. So the actual rank of the high Arctic wasn’t the coldest on record. Since the totality of the Arctic north of 60N had the warmest June on record.

Even the less reliable ECWMF only starts in 2002, so an apples to apples comparison to any year earlier than 2002 can’t be made. This is why we use Era 5 for comparison  to times since the 1940s. 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is the actual ERA 5 temperature map which produced the climate record for June 2026. The Pacific Arctic area to the north of Alaska did have its coldest June since the 1940s as I mentioned in my first post.

But you can see how the total area from 80N to 90N had zones closest to the warmest on record on the Atlantic side. So the actual rank of the high Arctic wasn’t the coldest on record. Since the totality of the Arctic north of 60N had the warmest June on record.

Even the less reliable ECWMF only starts in 2002, so an apples to apples comparison to any year earlier than 2002 can’t be made. This is why we use Era 5 for comparison  to times since the 1940s. 

 

But for just 80N+, it is quite cold overall!

Below is a closeup of just the 80N+ portion showing that overall it’s quite cold:

1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7  in coldest 1/2

 

2.

-a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87

-but only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is <1/8 the size of coldest 11

 

3.

-~25% is in coldest 3 of 87

-but only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

But for just 80N+, it is quite cold overall!

Below is a closeup of just the 80N+ portion showing that overall it’s quite cold:

1. only ~1/7 is in warmest 1/2 of years vs ~6/7  in coldest 1/2

 

2.

-a little >50% is in 4 coldest colors meaning coldest 11 of 87

-but only ~6% is in warmest 11, which is <1/8 the size of coldest 11

 

3.

-~25% is in coldest 3 of 87

-but only ~1% is in warmest 3 of 87, which is a mere 1/25 of the size of coldest 3

No doubt a cold month for that region. Just not as cold as the DMI ECMWF data. The persistence of low pressure closer to the Pacific side of the Arctic is a function of the big summer dipole reversal since 2013. This weaker dipole is the main reason that the 2012 record low has held into the 2020s.

 

 

 

 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

After that disaster start to the year ice max wise, day 190 extent got above 2012

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[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2026-07-arctic-winter-sea-ice-significant.html

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area not too bad currently with it near the 2013-24 avg as of now:

[bluewave]

The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994.

This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern.

Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. 

The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. 

 

 

 

 

Rick Thoman

 

@alaskawx.bsky.social

 

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Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce

 

ALT

2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026

 

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994.

This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern.

Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. 

The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. 

 

 

 

 

Rick Thoman

 

@alaskawx.bsky.social

 

Follow

Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce

 

ALT

2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026

 

 

 

 

The newer CMIP6 models place more importance on winter temps and the Atlantic front going forward. This year is a good example of that. Pretty good conditions present on the Pacific front, but the Atlantic front is weak enough to place the CAB near record lows with continental heat placing the CAA near record lows too. I keep expecting us to hit a wall here on extent (and we probably still will).

However we may also get a decent late season run since there's still quite a bit of ice left to melt at lower latitudes in the Pacific.

Regardless, I would not expect anything flashy until later next season or during the fall refreeze in '27. That's when big +ENSO tends to have an outsized effect.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The newer CMIP6 models place more importance on winter temps and the Atlantic front going forward. This year is a good example of that. Pretty good conditions present on the Pacific front, but the Atlantic front is weak enough to place the CAB near record lows with continental heat placing the CAA near record lows too. I keep expecting us to hit a wall here on extent (and we probably still will).

However we may also get a decent late season run since there's still quite a bit of ice left to melt at lower latitudes in the Pacific.

Regardless, I would not expect anything flashy until later next season or during the fall refreeze in '27. That's when big +ENSO tends to have an outsized effect.

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.