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wxmx

Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8

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1 hour ago, DFWWeather said:

After looking at all the model data this morning. Nearly every model with the exception of the ECMWF shows Tarrant County meeting criteria, at least the southwestern portions of the county anywhere from 4 inches to 9 inches in that area (though this does not account for melting). SREF Member probabilistic guidance of Tarrant county receiving 6 inches of snow is greater than 50%. Some guidance has 4 inches plus as far north as DFW Airport. The ECMWF has shifted everything out west, and appears to be an outlier at this time. If the warmer temperatures verify, then it will be closer to being correct. Therefore, I would not be surprised if Tarrant County gets added to the watch and I fully expect the Watch to get upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning this afternoon. If the latest NAM and Canadian are correct then Dallas County, Ellis, Kaufman and Rockwall would likely need to be added. This does look to be a primarily south of I-20 event, thus the further southwest you are in the Metroplex south of I-20 the better your chances of seeing the most snow. There appears to be a rapid gradient to nothing north of I-30, particularly when you get into Denton and Collin counties.

Popping I here to pretty much say this. Euro is an outlier, almost all the others show Dallas and Tarrant getting in on it too. 12Z HRRR shows the back end of the low coming though as well, setting up some moderate wrap around bands moving through DFW.

 

I think they’re very much undergoing it at this time.

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All signs point to a 2010 event still though this event is much colder at upper levels and colder even at the surface. Ratios could well be closer to the 10:1 or even better under the ULL. There will likely be some 12 inch and higher totals.

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NWS office upgraded Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. They went with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metroplex. The southwest quadrant of Tarrant is likely to see more than 3 inches and because of that, I think Tarrant County should have been included in the Warning.

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Hey guys, I've been trying to follow this closely, but am not very knowledgeable at all in winter weather forecasting/model interpretation (other than staring at snow maps). I appreciate all the insight that y'all are sharing and discussing. :thumbsup:

I am currently outside any watch/warning/advisory here in Collin County, but I too want in on the action ;)

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58 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

NWS office upgraded Watch to a Winter Storm Warning. They went with a Winter Weather Advisory for the Metroplex. The southwest quadrant of Tarrant is likely to see more than 3 inches and because of that, I think Tarrant County should have been included in the Warning.

By tomorrow the warnings will stretch from eastern NM to western MS. I def think Tarrant will warrant a warning but depends some on where bands set up as the ULL will miss DFW to the south.

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There is another storm lined up for next weekend. This blocking over Canada looks to stay in place and even grow stronger over the weeks ahead. We will have plenty more shots at snow over the coming months. Not going to be the warm dry winter many predicted. ENSO is only a part of the picture.

 

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Anyone know if there's a reason that HRRR depicting more rain than snow for DFW in the last few runs? Hope that's not the case!

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1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

Anyone know if there's a reason that HRRR depicting more rain than snow for DFW in the last few runs? Hope that's not the case!

Higher surface temps/dewpoints.

Also, the lighter precipitation rates struggle to sufficiently cool the column down to the surface.

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14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Higher surface temps/dewpoints.

Also, the lighter precipitation rates struggle to sufficiently cool the column down to the surface.

Thanks. But would that be a trustworthy solution at this point? 0z NAM seems showing virtually all snow for the metro.

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Looks like DFW is about to strike out yet again. At this point anyone should be extremely skeptical of any snowfall forecast here until the flakes start falling. Hilarious that lucy has yanked the proverbial football out from under everyone when there has been *so much precedent* for a low-side forecast busts since 2015

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The 06z NAM is actually a really good run for the DFW metro, it has 2-3 inches all the way up to parts of Denton & Collin counties. HRRR gets worse every run it appears and we'd be lucky to end up with a dusting. Don't know what to trust at this point but I am not very confident, I've seen this same story play out far too many times, and it's never the ending we want.

Almost that time where models are pointless and we will just need to start watching the radar and obs and see what happens. 

I feel the same way almost everyone else here does, it has been sooo long since DFW has a had a true "slam dunk" winter weather event that we weren't sweating until the last minute. To twist the knife just a bit more, even the Houston suburbs have had better winter weather luck over the last 5 years. <_<

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31 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

The 06z NAM is actually a really good run for the DFW metro, it has 2-3 inches all the way up to parts of Denton & Collin counties. HRRR gets worse every run it appears and we'd be lucky to end up with a dusting. Don't know what to trust at this point but I am not very confident, I've seen this same story play out far too many times, and it's never the ending we want.

HRRR is almost always better accuracy-wise short term yes?

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NWS Shreveport upgraded the area along and south of I-20 to a WSW with a WWA for the I-30 corridor. They are advertising 2-4" in the warning area. Their forecast closely matches mine for East Texas.

I think areas around Lufkin could get more but totals down their may be cut by sleet. Up along I-20 looks like we will have to deal with some rain during the day today given our distance from the upper level low. Tyler should still get a solid 3" of snow, but not the crazy 6"+ amounts that we could have had if it was all snow during the day today.

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18 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It is ripping here with big fat flakes.

No accumulation though (so far).

Yeah was for a bit further west of you but nothing has stuck. That may be the story with this event

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1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Yeah was for a bit further west of you but nothing has stuck. That may be the story with this event

Snow has tapered off, and only left a dusting in isolated patches on the grass and rooftops.

 

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Snow has tapered off, and only left a dusting in isolated patches on the grass and rooftops.

 

Yeah accumulations wise this is looking like a big bust for east of 35 and north of 20. Our drought of inch+ snowfall continues at the very least

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Ended up with close to 2". Hearing that roads are good this morning around here thankfully.

Another ULL crosses the state tomorrow night though it will be moisture starved. Maybe some light rain for central Texas tomorrow evening and maybe some sprinkles or flurries tomorrow night for E and SE Texas.

The next significant storm comes this weekend with rain or snow for much of the state. 

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Looks like there ended up with a nearly continuous band of 6"+ snow amounts from SE NM down to College Station and up through N LA. Isolated 10"+ in spots. DFW had a dusting to 1" though just south of DFW had 6". I had 2" but only had to go 10 miles south to see 4"+. There was a heavy strip of ~8" from Madisonville up to Jacksonville. Basically anyone north of I-10 at least saw snow flakes, even SA saw a dusting. Downtown Houston barely missed though they likely had some sleet mixed in. I am pretty happy with my forecast map though I under-forecasted the intensity of the main band also missed the B/CS area stuff that busted my forecast high in central East Texas. I mainly got the locations correct. 

Texas 2021-01-10 Snow Verification Map-page-001.jpg

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I compared the final tally vs my original forecast I put out last Thursday. Both bad though like most everyone I had the main band too far north by about 50 miles. Thankfully I never wavered much between these two maps which I am pleased with. The models went kinda crazy in the 72-48 hour range which made things hard to follow so I stuck with persistence until things became more clear on Saturday.

Texas 2021-01-10 Snow Verification Map vs Original Forecast Map1024_1.jpg

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The 6-10 day outlook from CPC yesterday looked pretty warm for Texas. Long-term, a big +SOI December value is a very strong indicator for a warm February in the South, usually including Texas. Although the signal is weaker the further west you get. December 2020 was +16, 5th highest SOI value since 1931. I don't know that winter is over in Texas, but Texas weather is pretty strongly correlated to warmth when the PNA goes in the wrong phase like it is about to.

pna.sprd2.gif

PNA-Jan

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On 1/16/2021 at 2:11 PM, raindancewx said:

The 6-10 day outlook from CPC yesterday looked pretty warm for Texas. Long-term, a big +SOI December value is a very strong indicator for a warm February in the South, usually including Texas. Although the signal is weaker the further west you get. December 2020 was +16, 5th highest SOI value since 1931. I don't know that winter is over in Texas, but Texas weather is pretty strongly correlated to warmth when the PNA goes in the wrong phase like it is about to.

 

The 1931-32 winter in Texas (at least for DFW) was one of the hottest winters on record. In fact, during December through February the lowest minimum temp was only 29°F. However, March of 1932 was pretty cold and we finally recorded a low of 22°F. That month there was 9 consecutive days with temps 20 below normal on average. It is pretty alarming how close we are following that winter this season. The lowest minimum so far 27°F which ties the all time hottest record for a winter season set in 2015-2016. The vast majority of our winters see the temp dip below 20°F at least one time. 

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The 1931-32 winter was a cold ENSO winter that followed two El Ninos - fairly rare in the last 90 years. So I did look at it when I did my forecast. That year is severely cold in the West though, and so it hasn't been a great match for the US overall. The distribution of cold highs (<=55F) where I am is uncannily similar to 1936-37, I'm curious to see if that continues.

I'll put out a Spring Outlook at some point in the next three weeks, but I am struggling with March at the moment. March 1965 and March 2012 are both very good matches to what I think the La Nina will look like in Spring, but one is incredibly cold in March, and one is incredibly hot. The other similar years are in between.

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SPC has added much of northern TX and a portion of southeast OK to a 15% Day 4 risk area. I guess if we can't have winter, we might as well have storms! The dreary rainy/misty/cloudy days this week are not much fun.

Screenshot 2021-01-21 073945.jpg

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1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The dreary rainy/misty/cloudy days this week are not much fun.

With our luck, D4 is also gonna be a dreary rainy/misty/cloudy day.

In all seriousness, I'm intrigued by the setup. Still some uncertainties, as noted by the SPC in their outlook (cap, degree of surface-based instability, etc.)

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