SACRUS Posted June 19, 2019 Author Share Posted June 19, 2019 Still a ways away (15 days) but latest guidance hinting at height rising and 850 temps of 16-18, signalling a warm Independence day. Details and any storms or fronts / timing to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 22, 2019 Share Posted June 22, 2019 First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2019 Author Share Posted June 25, 2019 On 6/19/2019 at 5:44 AM, SACRUS said: Still a ways away (15 days) but latest guidance hinting at height rising and 850 temps of 16-18, signalling a warm Independence day. Details and any storms or fronts / timing to be worked out. Shaping up to be a a warm 4th of July . Coming weekend looks hot Saturday with CF some time sunday with a cooler Mon (7/1) and warming Tue (7/2) and hot wed 7/3) and thu (7/4) Still need to work out timing with an storms beyond Sunday (6/30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 26, 2019 Share Posted June 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2019 Author Share Posted June 28, 2019 Jul 4th week 6/29 - 7/6 looking very summery aside from storms overnight Sat - Sun & Tues night looking mainly warm - hot / dry. 7/4: 85 - 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2019 Author Share Posted July 3, 2019 Looking warm 7/3 - 7/6. 4th (holiday) in the mid-upper 80s with onshore flow along the beaches (70s) but still oveall great day and fireworks shows should be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2020 Author Share Posted June 20, 2020 On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said: With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts Past July 4th's Year....19...18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95...94....93 EWR:..89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:..91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:...87...86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:..90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 360 hours away and starting to show up on th elong range extended guidance. ECM / GFS show warm above normal into the east and most of the country for that matter. Will see how it progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2020 Author Share Posted June 22, 2020 Last few runs of the GFS, Euro / ensembles showing strong ridging building into the region by 6/30 but flow could be onshore before going more NW/WNW by Jul 3. Looking hot by the 4th right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2020 Author Share Posted June 23, 2020 Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 23, 2020 Share Posted June 23, 2020 21 hours ago, SACRUS said: Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go... we'll probably have a S flow with cooler weather at the coast, that has been the theme so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2020 Author Share Posted June 24, 2020 260 hours to go. Guidance still varying on when the flow goes more NW/W but still looks like after a few days (6/30 - 7/2 or 3) of onshore flow we heat things up the fourth of July weekend. Still need to watch if a ULL fully cuts off and is pushed southwest similar to May and last week but the weekend may prove to get on the warmer flow of the ULL whether pushing inland (SW) or pushing east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2020 Author Share Posted June 25, 2020 244 hours to go. A matter of clearing the weakness / ULL within the ridge. ECM a bit longer into the 4th with the GFS quicker to move the ULL cutoff out. Overall once flow goes N/NW the heat is on. Ahead of that 6/30 - 7/3 onshore and may become wetter on guidance. But the holiday weekend looks to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2020 Author Share Posted June 26, 2020 220 hours to go. GFS continues with bringing the flow more NW by Sat the 4th, while the ECM hole the ULL / onshore through Jul 8. We'll see if this a run that went too long or a trend. Either way looking warm and dry for most on the 4th, beaches may be a bit cooler. Once the flow turns, the heat is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2020 Author Share Posted June 27, 2020 Just about a week away. ULL looks to push out by the fourth but linger off New England coast. Flow goes N/NW and warming by later Sat and the 5th. Looking overall dry and warm with cooler along the beaches and NJ shore Sat. Sunday looks to begin a hot stretch that looks to linger beyond the first week of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2020 Author Share Posted June 28, 2020 Holiday weekend looking warm and relatively rain free aside from stray showers. Fri (the 3rd) and Saturday in the park for the 4th of July look to be the hotter days before Sunday where winds may go more NE. Will need to watch the progression of the ULL to see if it does move out by Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 28, 2020 Share Posted June 28, 2020 17 hours ago, SACRUS said: Holiday weekend looking warm and relatively rain free aside from stray showers. Fri (the 3rd) and Saturday in the park for the 4th of July look to be the hotter days before Sunday where winds may go more NE. Will need to watch the progression of the ULL to see if it does move out by Fri. from what I saw, it probably wont reach 90 any time this week on Long Island and peak heat (if you can call it that) will be upper 80s on Friday. Saturday will be cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2020 Author Share Posted June 29, 2020 Holiday weekend starts off hot Fri 7/3, still warm Sat but 'cooler' air via N/NE flow likely to build in by the lat afternoon Sat and Sun. By Monday the flow is going back west and the week looks hot.. Forecast currently dry EWR: Fri 7/3: 92 Sat 7/4: 89 (cooler by late afternoon) Sun 7/5 : 85 Belmar/Lavalette: Fri: 87 Sat: 80 Sun: 77 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2020 Author Share Posted June 30, 2020 No real changes other than Saturday is looking warmer with less onshore flow. Overall looking dry the whole holiday weekend. Still need to watch any changes with possible onshore flow by July 4th evening and Sunday. Beach areas in NJ may be warmer than thought on Sunday but will keep forecast as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2020 Author Share Posted July 1, 2020 Forecast looks to be locking in. Friday the hottest day with pm storms (scattered). 4th of July warm but cooler in the evening and especially in the PM along the beaches. Sun looks beautiful mid - upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2020 Author Share Posted July 2, 2020 Locking in now for a mainly dry fourth of July weekend. Starting hot Friday cooling by Sat afternoon especially along the beached to more Southern California type weather Sat PM and Sunday. EWR: LGA: Fri: 93 Sat: 87 cooling by the PM Sun: 86 NJ shore (Belmar, Lavalette) Fri: 89 Sat: 82 Sun: 77 Happy 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 2, 2020 Share Posted July 2, 2020 28 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Locking in now for a mainly dry fourth of July weekend. Starting hot Friday cooling by Sat afternoon especially along the beached to more Southern California type weather Sat PM and Sunday. EWR: LGA: Fri: 93 Sat: 87 cooling by the PM Sun: 86 NJ shore (Belmar, Lavalette) Fri: 89 Sat: 82 Sun: 77 Happy 4th. Saturday evening should be gorgeous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2020 Author Share Posted July 3, 2020 Locked in . Hot Fri, warm but cooler (splendid) Sat and Sunday. Enjoy the fourth! Heat is poised to return on Monday and really sizzle the rest of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2020 Author Share Posted July 5, 2020 On 7/1/2020 at 8:31 PM, SACRUS said: Locking in now for a mainly dry fourth of July weekend. Starting hot Friday cooling by Sat afternoon especially along the beached to more Southern California type weather Sat PM and Sunday. EWR: LGA: Fri: 93 Sat: 87 cooling by the PM Sun: 86 NJ shore (Belmar, Lavalette) Fri: 89 Sat: 82 Sun: 77 Happy 4th. Going to be too cool for today but Fri/ Sat right on. Enjoy the rest of the july 4th weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2021 Author Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 6/12/2016 at 9:26 AM, SACRUS said: With just about 3 weeks to go the holiday will slowly start showing up on some long range forecasts Past July 4th's Year....20...19...18...17...16...15...14...13...12....11....10...09...08....07....06...05....04...03...02...01...00...99...98...97...96...95...94....93 EWR:..87...89...89...88...84...79...76...91...97...92...101...83...81....73...89...80...87...94...100...81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:...88...93...84...87...86...75...74...91....95...88....98....81...80....73...92...82...83...93...98....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:...89...91...91...86...82...75...75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89...92...97....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:...85....86...85...82...80...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79...92...99....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:..87...90...86...85...84...75...74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82...92...96....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 Time to start looking way out there into the July 4th Holiday weekend ECM : showing a warm/humid pattern in the D10 and beyond as the W Atlantic Ridge is still pushing heights up along the east coast. GFS : shows a bit less ridging and hing up front near by. Have to watch the Rockies Ridge heat pulsing east and the Western Atlantic Ridge building west and merging in the first half of July. Right now looking warm and humid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Time to start looking way out there into the July 4th Holiday weekend ECM : showing a warm/humid pattern in the D10 and beyond as the W Atlantic Ridge is still pushing heights up along the east coast. GFS : shows a bit less ridging and hing up front near by. Have to watch the Rockies Ridge heat pulsing east and the Western Atlantic Ridge building west and merging in the first half of July. Right now looking warm and humid I think you're missing one data point for JFK because the 101 at JFK for July 4th 2010 actually seems to be in 2011 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 7/5/2020 at 8:46 AM, SACRUS said: Going to be too cool for today but Fri/ Sat right on. Enjoy the rest of the july 4th weekend. I have the week after July 4th off, any idea if it gets hotter then or more warm and humid? The week I'm talking about is July 5th-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 7/2/2020 at 8:30 PM, SACRUS said: Locked in . Hot Fri, warm but cooler (splendid) Sat and Sunday. Enjoy the fourth! Heat is poised to return on Monday and really sizzle the rest of next week. Oh okay so it seems like the week before the 4th will be hotter than the week after? lol I know this is from 2020 but it looks like you're forecasting the same thing for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 On 6/12/2016 at 9:38 AM, uncle W said: the best 4th of July weather of my life was in 1965...Sunny with a max of 90 and a min of 65 with very little humidity... http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/4thofJulywx.pdf 1978 was about as bad as it gets for July 4th...highs in the low 60's with light rain all day...the Poconos were about 10 degrees cooler...next year in 1979 it was even cooler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 11 hours ago, uncle W said: 1978 was about as bad as it gets for July 4th...highs in the low 60's with light rain all day...the Poconos were about 10 degrees cooler...next year in 1979 it was even cooler... Some of my earliest obs...I have a temp split of 60/56 for 7/4/78 ...I have 2.72" rain for the 3rd and 4th combined. I remember the chill watching the parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 12 hours ago, doncat said: Some of my earliest obs...I have a temp split of 60/56 for 7/4/78 ...I have 2.72" rain for the 3rd and 4th combined. I remember the chill watching the parade. I was up in the Poconos on the 4th in 1981 when heavy rains put out any fireworks that night...I was up state NY in 1967 when heavy rains brought in some cool air...driving home from upstate NY on the 4th in 1966 was a trip because some highways buckled from the heat...I was a baby in 1949 when it hit 102 on the 4th...the record still stands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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