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2016 Atlantic Tropical Discussion:Atlantic Looks Active North of 20N


bluewave

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To bring it up the coast you're going to need the trough building into the Northern plains around day four to strengthen and weaken the ridge some. That's extremely unlikely at this point since most of the guidance has continued to strengthen the ridge.

In terms of local impacts in the greater NYC area, I think we're looking at some remnant rains at best in 7-10 days.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

What trends are you hoping for exactly? This isn't going to come up the coast, at least not before entering the GOM.

We don't need this hitting Louisiana. Hopefully It stays away from it. And this wont come up the coast.

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12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA.

 

Edit: looking at it again.. it shifted Gaston 500-600 miles WSW comparing it to the former 6z run... highly unlikely.

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1 minute ago, UnionWX said:

12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA.

I'd wait for the Euro before buying into ANY GFS tropical solution.

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Looking at the vis loop at 1230pm east time the convection on the south side of the system has collapsed.  Looking ENE of PR you can really see the circulation.  If that becomes the center it will safely go NE of PR.  So far few thunderstorms around that center, it will be interesting to see when or if they fire up.

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15 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The Weather Channel just said that the system is developing further south than forecasted. Then they said that the path of this storm will be different than originally thought.

I don't see that.  With Euro just coming out why wouldn't they just wait half an hour before saying anything about the path of the "possible" storm.  I would think that would be the responsible thing to do.

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