MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 39 minutes ago, Jason WX said: NAM is stronger and more N The ridge is going to prevent this storm from coming up unless it breaks down. The tropics continue to look very active moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 To bring it up the coast you're going to need the trough building into the Northern plains around day four to strengthen and weaken the ridge some. That's extremely unlikely at this point since most of the guidance has continued to strengthen the ridge. In terms of local impacts in the greater NYC area, I think we're looking at some remnant rains at best in 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 The 12z GFS still says no go. It just has an unorganized area of moisture near the Bahamas in three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Gaston seems to be trending further west each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jason WX said: Gaston seems to be trending further west each run. doesn't really matter. It's a 1000 miles east of bermuda-not much of a threat to anything other than ships and fishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: What trends are you hoping for exactly? This isn't going to come up the coast, at least not before entering the GOM. We don't need this hitting Louisiana. Hopefully It stays away from it. And this wont come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 One wildcard...if that COC develops further south, then the storm has a greater chance of moving too close to Hispanola-the hurricane grave yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA. Edit: looking at it again.. it shifted Gaston 500-600 miles WSW comparing it to the former 6z run... highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, UnionWX said: 12z GFS shifted Gaston a good 200-300 miles WSW. Probably what is messing up 99L from hitting Florida. The GFS has been shifting Gaston more and more west over the past day or so. Fish storm for us.. but that would be good news for FL/LA. I'd wait for the Euro before buying into ANY GFS tropical solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: I'd wait for the Euro before buying into ANY GFS tropical solution. Once the EURO locks in, it barely wavers.. I expect the same solution (FL hit, GOM hit) from the EURO. EURO is the king of the tropics, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Looking at the vis loop at 1230pm east time the convection on the south side of the system has collapsed. Looking ENE of PR you can really see the circulation. If that becomes the center it will safely go NE of PR. So far few thunderstorms around that center, it will be interesting to see when or if they fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 GFS rides this up just east of the Carolina coast... it's lost. 1011MB. Weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12z Ukmet never really ejects it into the Gulf. Rides the west coast of Florida as a weak rainmaker. -ag3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Hearing the LLC has been confirmed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Very weak on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Very weak on the CMC Anthony, it's actually 998mb landfall near Mobile Bay, looks fairly organized too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: That's wrong http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 That's the 0z UKMET if I'm not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Just now, UnionWX said: That's the 0z UKMET if I'm not mistaken. Yep, my bad. I deleted it. Here is the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I think we may have a bingo. KJUA radar picking up on what appears to be a closed circulation just North of St Croix. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Fwiw, Florida Panhandle hit on the Navgem https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2016082412&prod=prp&tau=168&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 We'll see what the Euro says in 42 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 The Weather Channel just said that the system is developing further south than forecasted. Then they said that the path of this storm will be different than originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Weather Channel just said that the system is developing further south than forecasted. Then they said that the path of this storm will be different than originally thought. I don't see that. With Euro just coming out why wouldn't they just wait half an hour before saying anything about the path of the "possible" storm. I would think that would be the responsible thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I don't see that. With Euro just coming out why wouldn't they just wait half an hour before saying anything about the path of the "possible" storm. I would think that would be the responsible thing to do. Its The Weather Channel...that sums it up for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 12z Euro update - Landfall as a weak TS in far SE Florida on Sunday. Looks to be deepening once in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Stalled right along the FL West coast for several days. Catastrophic rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.