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Mar. 27-31 Severe Threats


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Looking for optimism going forward...so far we've seen some decent EML/steep lapse rate setups in this young season.  Have had some moisture quality issues but it is March and more prone to that.  At least the next week to 10 days looks like a hostile pattern to say the least in terms of severe prospects.

Yeah the next 10 days look torched but the pattern will relax back and the later half of April into May looks prime. The strength of the EML thus far has been impressive and if we can maintain that with better moisture later next month we will be golden. 

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It is March and we have had 2 thunderstorms with a 3rd coming today, lower your expectations a touch. 

Not to mention how terrible the past few Marchs have been for severe weather. There was essentially no severe weather at all from the start of the year until the last 7 days of March. Severe weather is actually on the 10-year average this year, if not slightly above.

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For our region, yeah... but you can't say there weren't warning signs. 

Did bust though, we are getting storms and we were in a marginal risk in MI. I mean that doesn't sound like a bust at all, if we got nothing and it was a sunny day, that would be a bust. 

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Hmmmm... 

 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
531 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
NORTHWESTERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
EASTERN MIDLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 531 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MIDLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MIDLAND AROUND 540 PM EDT.
AUBURN AROUND 545 PM EDT.
KAWKAWLIN AND LINWOOD AROUND 555 PM EDT.

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Yeah. Had two rounds of storms here with hail, one of which produced some 2" hail in Bourbonnais.

Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference.
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Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference.

post-691-0-92475200-1459524314_thumb.jpg

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Looking at radar and environmental data around that time, I'm skeptical/surprised that storm was capable of producing 2" hail. The -20C level from a MDW AMDAR sounding was over 19kft and the core on that storm was maxed at 60 to 14.7kft and the 50+ dBZ height maxed with 55 dBZ to 18kft. Did have a brief 49 dBZ to 22.3kft. Freezing level heights were a bit over 9kft for reference.

I'm aware of the photos. It's just that there had to be something interesting going on. The storm was underwhelming structurally and one we would be unlikely to ever warn on, more likely an SPS for pennies or nickels. The digital VIL maxed at 32, which is not impressive at all. I'm really surprised there may have been sig severe hail with it.
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I'm aware of the photos. It's just that there had to be something interesting going on. The storm was underwhelming structurally and one we would be unlikely to ever warn on, more likely an SPS for pennies or nickels. The digital VIL maxed at 32, which is not impressive at all. I'm really surprised there may have been sig severe hail with it.

Wasn't sure if you saw the pic since you mentioned being skeptical, my bad.

There was a few decent scans of the VIL as the storm was over Bourbonnais.

The storm itself didn't look impressive though. I witnessed about .88" hail where I was at. The sun was actually out for a bit while it was hailing.

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IND confirmed a brief tornado in LAF yesterday.  This is a little south of the mall for anyone familiar with the area.

 

...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  1125 AM EDT FRI APR 1 2016    ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY  INDIANA...    LOCATION...LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA  DATE...MARCH 31 2016  ESTIMATED TIME...440 PM   MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...100 MPH  MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...30 YARDS ESTIMATED  PATH LENGTH...50 YARDS ESTIMATED  BEGINNING LAT/LON...40.36N / 86.83W  ENDING LAT/LON...40.36N / 86.83W  * FATALITIES...0  * INJURIES...0    * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO  CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN  NWS STORM DATA.     ..SUMMARY    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS IN HAS CONFIRMED A  TORNADO NEAR LAFAYETTE IN TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA ON MARCH  31 2016.    CAPTURED ON VIDEO A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3.5 MILES SOUTHEAST  OF LAFAYETTE AT WABASH NATIONAL TRAILERS. A GUARD SHACK WAS  DESTROYED...A CAR ROLLED OVER AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER WAS DAMAGED  AND NEARLY ROLLED OVER.  
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It apparently hit the fan near LAF:

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1131 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TORNADO 4 SSE LAFAYETTE 40.36N 86.84W
03/31/2016 TIPPECANOE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

CAPTURED ON VIDEO A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 3.5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE AT WABASH NATIONAL
TRAILERS. A GUARD SHACK WAS DESTROYED...A CAR ROLLED
OVER AND CONSTRUCTION TRAILER WAS DAMAGED AND NEARLY
ROLLED OVER. TORNADO ESTIMATED TO BE AN EF1 WITH WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 100 MPH.

 

EDIT:Ninja'd

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