RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks like it might cut pretty far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks like it might cut pretty far west? Dont have all of the in between plots just yet, but it goes west of us near Cleve. Maybe we would get some good wrap around from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Seconded! Glad to have more weather enthusiasts! The more the merrier, or perhaps judging from how storms usually fail for us misery loves company. Thanks, I'll be reading this thread every 2 hours I'm sure. Just can't ever get enough of storm tracking. There's never a storm that I've thought was too far out.... I don't have the technical knowledge like you guys do, so my job is to leave that up to you guys - and then give you the nowcast as it happens haha! Already looking forward to this next one. I'm hoping for 1 more decent snow before spring is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 From WPC THERE ARE PLENTY OF OTHER PSBL ERN CONUS EVOLUTIONS AS HAVE BEENINDICATED BY INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MODEL RUNS. 00Z/06ZGFS RUNS ARE ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE SPREAD ALOFT AND ON THE NRNSIDE AT THE SFC... WITH THE 00Z GFS TRACKING ITS MAIN SYSTEM ALONGTHE E COAST BUT THE 06Z GFS RUN TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. THE 06ZGEFS MEAN HAS ALSO LATCHED ONTO THE WRN SFC LOW TRACK. UKMET RUNSTHUS FAR HAVE BEEN QUITE DEEP/CLOSED ALOFT AND IN THE WRN HALF OFTHE ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AND THE 00Z CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO HINTS ATSFC LOW POTENTIAL ON EACH SIDE OF THE APLCHNS. THE FULL ENSEMBLEENVELOPE FROM LATEST GEFS/ECMWF/CMC RUNS REMAINS QUITE BROAD. IFTHE WWD TREND WITH THE UPR TROUGH CONTINUES THAT WILL INCREASEPOTENTIAL FOR LOWER SFC PRESSURES TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. CURRENT FCST THAT HAS SOME SFC LOW PRES/INVERTED TROUGHING JUST WOF THE APLCHNS INTO EARLY WED BEFORE EMPHASIS TRANSFERS TO THE ECOAST SEEMS TO PROVIDE THE MOST REASONABLE OPTION GIVEN THE LEVELOF UNCERTAINTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 There are 2 waves on EURO. This is the 2nd. Central Pa the winners of this run. 3 inches for Pgh area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 From WPC Hopefully it says just east of the Apps, or transfers below our latitude. With the ridge out in the Atlantic I think an OTS track is less of an option unless we get a strong first wave that is just a bit to far east that pushes the baroclinic zone to far east for the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Fwiw. At least its not showing a phased cutter.... Still plenty of time to improve for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sorry for the "test 2" earlier. Since it was my first post I had to wait for it to be approved, and then it posted it at the beginning of the thread. [/size] You guys are awesome.[/size] Welcome! Always nice to get a new face in our relatively small sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TorontoTransplant Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Five days out...right where we want to be. Bullseye almost never turns out for us at this stage, Id rather be fringed at D5. Here's hoping all of us can get a winner here in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GEFS Plumes with mean 4 inches but that is skewed by a 25 inch member. Make sure you click Pgh circle http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Navgem has transfer from Tenn to NC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Navgem has transfer from Tenn to NC coast looks pretty ideal to my amateur eyes. Btw this weather today has almost got me itching for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 looks pretty ideal to my amateur eyes. Btw this weather today has almost got me itching for spring. It has an east bias, so move that west some and it could be ideal. Looking forward to going out in shorts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 GEFS Plumes with mean 4 inches but that is skewed by a 25 inch member. Make sure you click Pgh circle http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html Those plumes aren't too bad. The clusters still mean between 1.1 and 1.2 qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 looks pretty ideal to my amateur eyes. Btw this weather today has almost got me itching for spring.Yeah, I'm loving this today. Got off of work early, do I think I'll spend the afternoon outside and enjoy it. If we're going to keep getting snubbed by storms, I'll take 60 degrees as the alternative. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 RYD, I taking it you wont be posting the EURO Para fantasy map today... Cuts into Eastern Kentucky up to Detroit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Initiate mass weenie suicide. I guess its time to venture into the midatlantic forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 RYD, I taking it you wont be posting the EURO Para fantasy map today... Cuts into Eastern Kentucky up to Detroit... I never know when that thing starts running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol at the hole over PGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So much for the ukie being the outlier lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well GFS is looking amped and this is not looking good for anyone east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well GFS is looking amped and this is not looking good for anyone east of the Apps. Do you mean east of South Bend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'll just leave this here for your guys' friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Lol at the hole over PGH It's shaped like a fish. That just means the storm knows it's Lent in Western PA, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I'll just leave this here for your guys' friday evening. The way this winter been. This is money for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think I'm ready for spring at this point. I can't help saying that after watching storm after storm miss, while experiencing this 60 degree weather today. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This is what I feel like every week after a drastic model change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Does anyone ever recall when a storm was modeled within 4-5 days by multiple models to be a west lakes cutter, and the storm in the end became a coastal/inland runner storm? I seriously never remember that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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