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Ralph Wiggum

January 22-23 Storm Threat

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That didn't show between 24 and 48hr though.

look at the quick exit though, and the text outputs on qpf, clearly going to be drier.  now as for if the run has some problems, i can't say at all.

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OMG... its Joaquin again... Euro and OTS... is this really happening?

it isn't quite OTS though, that is overstating it.  and as other posters have pointed out, there is still some guessing here. but it doesn't look that great as it stands.

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look at the quick exit though, and the text outputs on qpf, clearly going to be drier.  now as for if the run has some problems, i can't say at all.

 

Their text outputs are missing 2 6 hour intervals though. I do agree....Just doesn't make sense to me, EVERYTHING was farther N @ 15 hours on SV. EURO is ****ting the bed I think & I'm not just wish casting

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Their text outputs are missing 2 6 hour intervals though. I do agree....Just doesn't make sense to me, EVERYTHING was farther N @ 15 hours on SV. EURO is ****ting the bed I think & I'm not just wish casting

it is too late at night to be dealing with this confusion!  you may be right about the Euro, we'll see.

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i think that is with the missing data.  I think.  This is very annoying.  I will try and get some more numbers as soon as I can, if i dont fall asleep first.

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The ECMWF is a tick north (but barely) on Wunderground at 33 hours. What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation).

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i think that is with the missing data.  I think.  This is very annoying.  I will try and get some more numbers as soon as I can, if i dont fall asleep first.

 

Cool, thanks.  If that's the driest of the bunch, then not bad at all.  

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So, is this Euro qpf with missing data, or?  

To be honest I am not seeing any missing data, but I know people in the MA forum said they are---maybe I'm missing something?

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What the GFS/RGEM are simulating is the complete opposite...immense LHR aloft stalling the progression of the 500 hpa S/W trough through PV destruction, which keeps the deform band in place for hours.  Tough call...it really is differences in model precip/convective/microphysics/physics schemes.

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ok, i got it off wxbell, actually turned out to be a better run for our region, looks like lehigh valley 6-12 inches, 12-18 PHL and immediate burbs.  more tomorrow, night

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ok, i got it off wxbell, actually turned out to be a better run for our region, looks like lehigh valley 6-12 inches, 12-18 PHL and immediate burbs.  more tomorrow, night

 

Nice, thanks.  

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...NAM is still destroying.  It's gotta mean something.  At-least a 50% compromise has to be right....there's no way CAD could completely cut everything off so quickly...like GFS is showing.  And being so close to the Low as well. 

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Euro is north, EPS is north, sref's are north again, nam is coming in and it's going to be better than 0z. From hr 30 to 39 the low just sits off the coast of Ocean City, MD. E pa gets crushed. 

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