OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 As ridiculous as this thread is for New England ( ) I am ready for convection. Watching tornadoes develop in the Quad Cities tonight just makes me realize how much I miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 As ridiculous as this thread is for New England ( ) I am ready for convection. Watching tornadoes develop in the Quad Cities tonight just makes me realize how much I miss it. I can't wait either. There's nothing like watching a severe wx event out west this time of year and knowing your season is right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I can't wait either. There's nothing like watching a severe wx event out west this time of year and knowing your season is right around the corner. The event that just went on in the DVN area would have most forecasters faces melting here in New England. At least two relatively long-lived tornadoes, several other storms needing TORs, plus all the SVRs needed. We're used to a handful of good storms on a big day, out there everything needs watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 The event that just went on in the DVN area would have most forecasters faces melting here in New England. At least two relatively long-lived tornadoes, several other storms needing TORs, plus all the SVRs needed. We're used to a handful of good storms on a big day, out there everything needs watching. I can't even imagine how crazy those offices are in setups like this. How many people do they usually staff? I'm assuming they have like at least 3 people watching just radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I can't even imagine how crazy those offices are in setups like this. How many people do they usually staff? I'm assuming they have like at least 3 people watching just radar? An event like this would probably be around 6 people. Two warning forecasters, one primary and the other jumping in after sectorizing (by geography or threat (i.e. one for TOR one for SVR)). One for the forecast grids Public service unit to handle balloon launch, phones calls, obs One for social media, phone calls And probably an extra body or two for additional phone calls, verification, mesoanalysis, eventual relief for the radar operators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 An event like this would probably be around 6 people. Two warning forecasters, one primary and the other jumping in after sectorizing (by geography or threat (i.e. one for TOR one for SVR)). One for the forecast grids Public service unit to handle balloon launch, phones calls, obs One for social media, phone calls And probably an extra body or two for additional phone calls, verification, mesoanalysis, eventual relief for the radar operators. I think I'd hate to be the one dealing with the phone calls Although I'm sure they probably have great methods for dealing with the media and such and getting information out when they can. I know at least at BOX they do a tremendous job getting updates out to the media at least every hour or so. I imagine these days go by insanely quickly for the forecasters, especially once the event gets underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I think I'd hate to be the one dealing with the phone calls Although I'm sure they probably have great methods for dealing with the media and such and getting information out when they can. I know at least at BOX they do a tremendous job getting updates out to the media at least every hour or so. I imagine these days go by insanely quickly for the forecasters, especially once the event gets underway. Phones are easier out there than around here. Most of the time deal with public calling for inane forecast questions, like the high for tomorrow when we're issuing TORs. Out there you're actually getting reliable reports from spotters or chasers on the storms. So in a way it's a really important job to get that information to the warning forecaster. NWSChat is easy to brief the media too, you can send one message and it reaches everyone, rather than talking to each station on the phone. It gets significantly more usage out there too (NWSChat originated at Iowa State for the IA offices). The days do go by quickly. You know it's going to be a busy day, and everyone just settles in and does their job. It's like a sport without the athletic part, the good ones just get super focused. So what if you haven't had lunch yet, someone will bring you a Snickers and a Mountain Dew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Phones are easier out there than around here. Most of the time deal with public calling for inane forecast questions, like the high for tomorrow when we're issuing TORs. Out there you're actually getting reliable reports from spotters or chasers on the storms. So in a way it's a really important job to get that information to the warning forecaster. NWSChat is easy to brief the media too, you can send one message and it reaches everyone, rather than talking to each station on the phone. It gets significantly more usage out there too (NWSChat originated at Iowa State for the IA offices). The days do go by quickly. You know it's going to be a busy day, and everyone just settles in and does their job. It's like a sport without the athletic part, the good ones just get super focused. So what if you haven't had lunch yet, someone will bring you a Snickers and a Mountain Dew. OMG you've seriously gotten phone calls about high temps when there's a severe wx event going on? That's good to hear though its much easier out there than here...it probably would be a complete and total nightmare if they had to deal with crap. I'm sure NWSChat is a major saving grace for out west, anything to make a job easier when storms are firing and intensifying by the second. How's the office-to-office communication and such out that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 OMG you've seriously gotten phone calls about high temps when there's a severe wx event going on? That's good to hear though its much easier out there than here...it probably would be a complete and total nightmare if they had to deal with crap. I'm sure NWSChat is a major saving grace for out west, anything to make a job easier when storms are firing and intensifying by the second. How's the office-to-office communication and such out that way? Really good in my opinion. The Upper Midwest had great inter-office relationships. They rotated offices each year that would host a science workshop. Shared lots of research. Spent lots of time on the phone coordinating hand offs of storms or storm surveys even. I remember one event where tornadic storms were expected, and fired along the southern CWA border. We had a chaser on the storm and reporting the meso in LSX's area, even though the bulk of the storm was in DVN's. So after a quick conference call, LSX issued the TOR, and DVN issued the SVR for the other half of the storm as it rode the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Really good in my opinion. The Upper Midwest had great inter-office relationships. They rotated offices each year that would host a science workshop. Shared lots of research. Spent lots of time on the phone coordinating hand offs of storms or storm surveys even. I remember one event where tornadic storms were expected, and fired along the southern CWA border. We had a chaser on the storm and reporting the meso in LSX's area, even though the bulk of the storm was in DVN's. So after a quick conference call, LSX issued the TOR, and DVN issued the SVR for the other half of the storm as it rode the border. That's awesome! I would have been really shocked if you had said it wasn't that great. I would expect the relations to be phenomenal given what they have to do with. For them to also hold a yearly conference and share research and such is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Currently reading up on the relatively new method for forecasting tornado environments weeks in advance. I'm pretty sure the journal article is behind a paywall currently at AMS, but you can get tidbits from http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-college-of-dupage-prof-may-have-found-way-to-forecast-tornadoes-2-3-weeks-in-advance-20160304-story.html and http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/ Vic is a smart guy doing some great work it seems. He was in the running at DVN when they hired me, and I'm not sure how the NWS let him slip away. Checking his verification from last years experiment, it's quite promising. Hit 10 of 15 periods for week 3 forecasts, and didn't bust any (meaning his "wrong" forecasts just fell within 50% of normal error). There we no above average forecasts with below average tornadoes, and vice versa. As if chaser convergence wasn't bad enough, image if they could have 3 weeks lead time to plan their vacations. Well we can get an idea from ensembles through week 2. Week 3 is where it's at? We have weekly models too. Unless this is telling us more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Well we can get an idea from ensembles through week 2. Week 3 is where it's at? We have weekly models too. Unless this is telling us more? There definitely seems to be more to this than simply the mean patterns on the ensembles. It seems really akin to looking at MJO procession to correlate to temps around here in winter. The signals are really strong strong in GOW phases 8, 1, and 2 for increased tornado activity (conversely strong negative correlation in 3, 4, 5). I'm probably misquoting now, but I'm pretty sure he found no violent tornadoes during phase 3 in the entire 20 years of the study. That could be pretty valuable information. Really a way to marry the ensemble guidance with actually hard numbers on what usually results from the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 There definitely seems to be more to this than simply the mean patterns on the ensembles. It seems really akin to looking at MJO procession to correlate to temps around here in winter. The signals are really strong strong in GOW phases 8, 1, and 2 for increased tornado activity (conversely strong negative correlation in 3, 4, 5). I'm probably misquoting now, but I'm pretty sure he found no violent tornadoes during phase 3 in the entire 20 years of the study. That could be pretty valuable information. Really a way to marry the ensemble guidance with actually hard numbers on what usually results from the upcoming pattern. The patterns though are probably inherently shown in the models when there is higher or lower AAM, no? The GEFS from what I heard are also biased low AAM so might be high FAR. I'm just not sure the benefit 3 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 The patterns though are probably inherently shown in the models when there is higher or lower AAM, no? The GEFS from what I heard are also biased low AAM so might be high FAR. I'm just not sure the benefit 3 weeks out. We'll see what this season brings with regards to FAR, but last season's test didn't appear to be significantly high FAR. I think the big difference is convection tends to be more subtle forcing than winter storms, and to be able to have some statistically significant way to say activity will be higher or lower than normal is a big step in tornado forecasting. Up until this point, most seasonal or long range tornado forecasts have been pretty voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I'd be curious to see the H5 maps from that. My guess is you can probably see that from ensembles too at week 2...but curious about week 3. I mean if I see a mean trough near srn Rockies...I don't need AAM to know it's active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Looks to start off on the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29, 2016 Author Share Posted April 29, 2016 Can't believe May is almost here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 I'm pumped. I hope there is a "real" severe season. OKX FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2016 Author Share Posted April 30, 2016 OKX FTL Quite honestly I'm not a huge fan of his map. This map I thin is better suited for other regions. Up here we really only have 3 months or so where the majority of our tornadoes occur. Other regions can have as much as 6-7+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Quite honestly I'm not a huge fan of his map. This map I thin is better suited for other regions. Up here we really only have 3 months or so where the majority of our tornadoes occur. Other regions can have as much as 6-7+ months. 2.83 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2016 Author Share Posted April 30, 2016 2.83 years that's probably pretty realistic for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2016 Author Share Posted May 1, 2016 It's May 1st!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 It's May 1st!!!!!!!!!! Without a threat to be found Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2016 Author Share Posted May 1, 2016 Without a threat to be found I'm getting upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Cant get upset yet thats like saying we don't have a tropical threat on June 1st.. I'm getting upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 The GFS has an EML plume over the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 5, 2016 Share Posted May 5, 2016 The GFS has an EML plume over the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday.Too bad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2016 Author Share Posted May 5, 2016 The GFS has an EML plume over the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. Damn it I have a final that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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