Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Baltimore/DC is getting 4-6 and here we are hoping our cold rain changes to snow later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Its only 10 days away... I have to literally will myself to not follow this until next sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Its only 10 days away... Lots of high pressure in Canada, could be the one! A threat around the 24-26 is on the ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 On the way to work at around 7, 28 in Armstrong down to about Freeport it was freezing rain and the roads were already pretty dicey (great job Penndot ). It is surprising they weren't out pre-treating as that would essentially mitigate any of the zr threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It is surprising they weren't out pre-treating as that would essentially mitigate any of the zr threat. I swear to you, when you are driving up 28, you can SEE where the Penndot district changes just after the high bridge over Buffalo Creek (about a mile north of the Freeport exit) by where the treated, well plowed roadway ends. The district up in Armstrong is horrendous. I don't know what their issue is, but they are horrible at maintaining the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fwiw the 6z american models are snowier for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fwiw the 6z american models are snowier for us So was the 0z Euro and now the para Euro. Observe. Granted some probbaly is mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fwiw the 6z american models are snowier for us Didn't even bother to check. 00z was about 3-6 between the two. What did 06z show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fwiw the 6z american models are snowier for usWhat does it say ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is it showing a trend moving a little bit east each time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 6z gfs pounded out about 10"....likely aided by the western location of the airport. Basically advertising a backend thump which would seem to be possible with this track. Think NAM showed like 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lots of high pressure in Canada, could be the one! A threat around the 24-26 is on the ensembles too. So here is the 6z Para. Just has a clipper. Laughable how different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 So here is the 6z Para. Just has a clipper. Laughable how different. This could turn into a GLC by the time we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 6z gfs pounded out about 10"....likely aided by the western location of the airport. Basically advertising a backend thump which would seem to be possible with this track. Think NAM showed like 4" Ahh the fabled backend thump, we'll see. I guess if you take the euro, nam, gfs you get about 5-8. I'll assume 1-3 and be happy with anything extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Yeah, the trend this winter has been for more opportunities than not. This was always gonna have a better chance to be your winter to finally cash in, with the nino/southern stream storms. The NWS should give you a part time job to measure snow at Hart Field. It's been too long. Lol I would take that job! Looks like I'll be breaking out the rain gauge for this one, though. Not much fun with the ruler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm guessing the 12z runs weren't quite as fruitful? Sorry, I'm feeling lazy this morning and this storm hasn't exactly given me any added motivation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ahh the fabled backend thump, we'll see. I guess if you take the euro, nam, gfs you get about 5-8. I'll assume 1-3 and be happy with anything extra. Gotta love radar watching and praying the rain/snow line drops south. More times than not the changeover takes longers for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Gotta love radar watching and praying the rain/snow line drops south. More times than not the changeover takes longers for us Haha we've all been there. Let the hallucinations and false hope begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Haha we've all been there. Let the hallucinations and false hope begin. I rather just wait to see what falls and not radar watch. This reminds me of storms that we are used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Biggest problem is that regardless of how this "wabbles", it seems like generally speaking the heavier precip is associated with the warmer sector. So a tick to the colder solution would mean less QPF and vice versa Not a lot of room. Not sure how Tolleris thinks that our area is in the thick of a widespread area that sees 4-8. Like i said, possible as shown on the earlier GFS, but i cant see forecasting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Biggest problem is that regardless of how this "wabbles", it seems like generally speaking the heavier precip is associated with the warmer sector. So a tick to the colder solution would mean less QPF and vice versa Not a lot of room. Not sure how Tolleris thinks that our area is in the thick of a widespread area that sees 4-8. Like i said, possible as shown on the earlier GFS, but i cant see forecasting that Looks like we are going to need a lot more than a wobble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like we are going to need a lot more than a wobble.. Id say thats too far north but I still think its too far north of us to give us any meaningful snow. Lets face it, 2-3 like the NWS said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I swear to you, when you are driving up 28, you can SEE where the Penndot district changes just after the high bridge over Buffalo Creek (about a mile north of the Freeport exit) by where the treated, well plowed roadway ends. The district up in Armstrong is horrendous. I don't know what their issue is, but they are horrible at maintaining the roads. I grew up in South Buffalo (my parents still live there) and I can attest to this. It seems like once I get out of Freeport on old 28 the road conditions can change drastically and 28 itself is the same. I don't think its 100% Pendot because they can average 2-4 degrees colder than my location in New Kensington. Growing up there were numerous times it would be snowing at home, but in Frreeport it was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Come on Ilene. My prediction is pain Remember mr t in rocky 3. When the media ask mr t what his prediction of the fight was ? Lol. I don't know what is gonna happen. Rather than one inch slush slop I hope we get donut holed from the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Found this discussion on Accu. Could this be looking to transfer to coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Bernie acknowledged the warm tongue. We live in a ****ty city for snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Bernie acknowledged the warm tongue. We live in a ****ty city for snow storms. ****ty city ?? Pitty city ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Found this discussion on Accu. Could this be looking to transfer to coast? Col. What is a transfer to coast Mean. ?? All precip will miss us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Col. What is a transfer to coast Mean. ?? All precip will miss us?? It would allow the low to not flood us with warm air as much but then qpf drops. Its a fine line and we are on the wrong side of it no matter how you slice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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