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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: End of Fall/Into Winter!


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I personally wouldn't expect this poor of a pattern to last the rest of the winter.  That year was an extreme event.  

 

Funny how they're all becoming 'extreme events', isn't it? Fwiw, 06-7 as a mid-range analogue; we wound up with an 80"/10 degree avg. February that year after two 'extremely' warm and snowless months.

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Funny how they're all becoming 'extreme events', isn't it? Fwiw, 06-7 as a mid-range analogue; we wound up with an 80"/10 degree avg. February that year after two 'extremely' warm and snowless months.

57-58 and 84-85 both had huge comebacks in the Buffalo area.  I think you have to be resigned to the fact that the area is for all intents and purposes to be an temps with bn snow this winter  LE areas seasonal snowfall is heavily tied to Dec. snows.  Areas over the east coast shouldn't care much about December nearly as much because later January through early March is their bread and butter.  

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57-58 and 84-85 both had huge comebacks in the Buffalo area.  I think you have to be resigned to the fact that the area is for all intents and purposes to be an temps with bn snow this winter  LE areas seasonal snowfall is heavily tied to Dec. snows.  Areas over the east coast shouldn't care much about December nearly as much because later January through early March is their bread and butter.  

 

This is true, but this area is heavily tied to Dec snows because that is prime season for lake effect snow. That season is extended when the lake remains at record warmth during the course of Dec and into January. If the lake doesn't freeze, Dec snows can be made in Feb.(07, 42" in EA, 30+ In Hamburg) It is all based on lake Erie remaining open which I fully expect to happen this year. It just takes 1 event to completely change the outlook for the season. 2001 saw a record warm Dec and snowless month until X-mas week. We just need the cold air to occasionally operate.

 

stormtotals.jpg

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This is true, but this area is heavily tied to Dec snows because that is prime season for lake effect snow. That season is extended when the lake remains at record warmth during the course of Dec and into January. If the lake doesn't freeze, Dec snows can be made in Feb.(07, 42" in EA, 30+ In Hamburg) It is all based on lake Erie remaining open which I fully expect to happen this year. It just takes 1 event to completely change the outlook for the season. 2001 saw a record warm Dec and snowless month until X-mas week. We just need the cold air to occasionally operate.

 

stormtotals.jpg

57-58 and 65-66 are the two strong ninos that did manage to get above normal in BUF.  Both years had much above normal January and February's.  

 

Also, those years had some big synoptic snows involved later in the season to reach those totals.  February 58 especially.  

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Wow just to think that we could break this 116 year old record by 2 weeks is quiet the milestone! :stun:

 

000SXUS71 KBUF 031252RERBUFRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY0745 AM EST THU DEC 03 2015...RECORD FOR LATEST DATE WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SET AT BUFFALONY...THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST DATE WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (0.1INCHES OR GREATER) WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLDRECORD SET BACK IN 1899.IF 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER DOES NOT FALL AT THE BUFFALOAIRPORT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BESHATTERED...AS BEYOND TODAY THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALLAPPEAR TO BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.$$JAM
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This is a pretty remarkable 7-day forecast for the 2nd week of December in WNY.  Mild temps AND sun...

 

Today
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West wind 11 to 16 mph.
Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 6 to 10 mph.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 50. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 52. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 33.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 48.
Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 48.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
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Get your snow tires on fellas.

 

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER...BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE
PACIFIC BASED FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER 48.
A NICE SIZED CHUNK OF -12 TO -16C H85 AIR IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHOULD THIS AIRMASS MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKE
SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF `IFS`
WITH THIS SCNEARIO THOUGH...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY SEASON.

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Not if they get one 51" storm! :icecream:

 

(24 hours can change everything downwind from the pond. ;) )

 

And now it's a nice cutter on the 06z GFS... Have a feeling this will be the trend all winter. I think KBUF ends up with a sub 50" season.

 

Yep it only takes one storm to change things. Especially with a record warm lake.

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Next week gets warmer and nicer each day. I haven't seen a true snowflake yet this year. ^_^
 
Monday
Increasing clouds, with a high near 46.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 50.
Thursday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 53.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.
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Just to put the warm up coming this week into perspective.

 

Average temps for KBUF

 

Dec 11th

 

High: 37.3

Low: 25.4

 

Dec 12th

 

High: 37

Low: 25.1

 

Dec 13th

 

High: 36.6

Low: 24.8

 

The predicted temps for next weekend are near 60 with lows in the upper 40s. Average temperatures will be 25-30 degrees above normal for highs and overnight lows. Some crazy stuff.

 

WHILE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPS TOWARD 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE /IN
WHICH 06/12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLES BUILD TO NEAR +2SD/ WOULD MAKE 60S A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND.

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I don't think KBUF sees its first inch of snow until January 11th... Just a gut feeling. Think KBUF sees only one 4"+ snowfall and no 8" plus snowfalls. Just think the right setup for a good lake effect event in the metro area will never come this year and all that warm lake water will be wasted. Think the far south towns into northern ski country get a good event in late Febuary on a prolonged westerly flow event. Somewhere in the 2-3 foot range for the Boston Hills, similar to Feb 07. Okay okay I'll stop now

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Check out this forecast for Mount Rainier in WA.  

 

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy, with a west southwest wind 32 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
Tuesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Windy, with a southwest wind around 47 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Tuesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph increasing to 38 to 48 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers. High near 22. Windy, with a west southwest wind 43 to 48 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 2. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
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