scottmartin49 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 I personally wouldn't expect this poor of a pattern to last the rest of the winter. That year was an extreme event. Funny how they're all becoming 'extreme events', isn't it? Fwiw, 06-7 as a mid-range analogue; we wound up with an 80"/10 degree avg. February that year after two 'extremely' warm and snowless months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Funny how they're all becoming 'extreme events', isn't it? Fwiw, 06-7 as a mid-range analogue; we wound up with an 80"/10 degree avg. February that year after two 'extremely' warm and snowless months. 57-58 and 84-85 both had huge comebacks in the Buffalo area. I think you have to be resigned to the fact that the area is for all intents and purposes to be an temps with bn snow this winter LE areas seasonal snowfall is heavily tied to Dec. snows. Areas over the east coast shouldn't care much about December nearly as much because later January through early March is their bread and butter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 57-58 and 84-85 both had huge comebacks in the Buffalo area. I think you have to be resigned to the fact that the area is for all intents and purposes to be an temps with bn snow this winter LE areas seasonal snowfall is heavily tied to Dec. snows. Areas over the east coast shouldn't care much about December nearly as much because later January through early March is their bread and butter. This is true, but this area is heavily tied to Dec snows because that is prime season for lake effect snow. That season is extended when the lake remains at record warmth during the course of Dec and into January. If the lake doesn't freeze, Dec snows can be made in Feb.(07, 42" in EA, 30+ In Hamburg) It is all based on lake Erie remaining open which I fully expect to happen this year. It just takes 1 event to completely change the outlook for the season. 2001 saw a record warm Dec and snowless month until X-mas week. We just need the cold air to occasionally operate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 This is true, but this area is heavily tied to Dec snows because that is prime season for lake effect snow. That season is extended when the lake remains at record warmth during the course of Dec and into January. If the lake doesn't freeze, Dec snows can be made in Feb.(07, 42" in EA, 30+ In Hamburg) It is all based on lake Erie remaining open which I fully expect to happen this year. It just takes 1 event to completely change the outlook for the season. 2001 saw a record warm Dec and snowless month until X-mas week. We just need the cold air to occasionally operate. 57-58 and 65-66 are the two strong ninos that did manage to get above normal in BUF. Both years had much above normal January and February's. Also, those years had some big synoptic snows involved later in the season to reach those totals. February 58 especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 LOL, love your optimism Buffalo!.... but damn are we in a desperate situation when we are drooling over a 16 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'm thinking the airport will get a slushy coating tonight and tie the record.....which is lame. It would be nice to smash the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2015 Author Share Posted December 3, 2015 I'm thinking the airport will get a slushy coating tonight and tie the record.....which is lame. It would be nice to smash the record. hopefully not, want to beat that record by weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 hopefully not, want to beat that record by weeks. And smash goes the record. Heading into uncharted territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 And smash goes the record. Heading into uncharted territory... Yes sir and it should be all clear till the 15th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Wow just to think that we could break this 116 year old record by 2 weeks is quiet the milestone! 000SXUS71 KBUF 031252RERBUFRECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY0745 AM EST THU DEC 03 2015...RECORD FOR LATEST DATE WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SET AT BUFFALONY...THE RECORD FOR THE LATEST DATE WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (0.1INCHES OR GREATER) WAS SET AT BUFFALO NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLDRECORD SET BACK IN 1899.IF 0.1 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER DOES NOT FALL AT THE BUFFALOAIRPORT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THIS RECORD WILL LIKELY BESHATTERED...AS BEYOND TODAY THE CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALLAPPEAR TO BE SLIM TO NONE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.$$JAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 If you're gonna break a record, you may as well smash it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 If you're gonna break a record, you may as well smash it. This record might be impossible to beat. If the last one held for 100+ years and with this one beating it by at least 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 This is a pretty remarkable 7-day forecast for the 2nd week of December in WNY. Mild temps AND sun... Today Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West wind 11 to 16 mph. Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 6 to 10 mph. Saturday Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 50. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 52. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Incredible. What a difference from last year ☀️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Nice weenie storm on the LR 0Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Nice weenie storm on the LR 0Z GFS. Very nice indeed. 18Z had a nice one as well. Patience(hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 And now it's a nice cutter on the 06z GFS... Have a feeling this will be the trend all winter. I think KBUF ends up with a sub 50" season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 And now it's a nice cutter on the 06z GFS... Have a feeling this will be the trend all winter. I think KBUF ends up with a sub 50" season. Not if they get one 51" storm! (24 hours can change everything downwind from the pond. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Not a bad look at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 The lake is so warm this year. Still some 52 degree lake temps out there. Will be crazy if we get the right set-up for LES in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Get your snow tires on fellas. LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO THE SECOND FULL WEEK OF DECEMBER...BOTHTHE ECMWF AND GFS BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THEPACIFIC BASED FLOW COULD TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE LOWER 48.A NICE SIZED CHUNK OF -12 TO -16C H85 AIR IS ADVERTISED TO MOVEFROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.SHOULD THIS AIRMASS MAKE IT TO THE OHIO VALLEY...IT WOULD BE IN AFAVORABLE POSITION TO EVENTUALLY GENERATE SOME SIGNIFICANT LAKESNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERE ARE PLENTY OF `IFS`WITH THIS SCNEARIO THOUGH...BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO KEEP ANEYE ON AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO PREPARATIONS FOR THE UPCOMINGHOLIDAY SEASON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Not if they get one 51" storm! (24 hours can change everything downwind from the pond. ) And now it's a nice cutter on the 06z GFS... Have a feeling this will be the trend all winter. I think KBUF ends up with a sub 50" season. Yep it only takes one storm to change things. Especially with a record warm lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 And now it's a nice cutter on the 06z GFS... Have a feeling this will be the trend all winter. I think KBUF ends up with a sub 50" season. You actually need a GL cutter to get southwest winds for Metro LES minus a good mid level shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Next week gets warmer and nicer each day. I haven't seen a true snowflake yet this year. Monday Increasing clouds, with a high near 46. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 Just to put the warm up coming this week into perspective. Average temps for KBUF Dec 11th High: 37.3 Low: 25.4 Dec 12th High: 37 Low: 25.1 Dec 13th High: 36.6 Low: 24.8 The predicted temps for next weekend are near 60 with lows in the upper 40s. Average temperatures will be 25-30 degrees above normal for highs and overnight lows. Some crazy stuff. WHILE PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP BOOSTTEMPS TOWARD 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE /INWHICH 06/12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLES BUILD TO NEAR +2SD/ WOULD MAKE 60S APOSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 7, 2015 Author Share Posted December 7, 2015 At least we are finally seeing some better things in the long range. I don't think I've even seen a good clown map since that short cold outbreak in Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 I don't think KBUF sees its first inch of snow until January 11th... Just a gut feeling. Think KBUF sees only one 4"+ snowfall and no 8" plus snowfalls. Just think the right setup for a good lake effect event in the metro area will never come this year and all that warm lake water will be wasted. Think the far south towns into northern ski country get a good event in late Febuary on a prolonged westerly flow event. Somewhere in the 2-3 foot range for the Boston Hills, similar to Feb 07. Okay okay I'll stop now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 7, 2015 Share Posted December 7, 2015 Check out this forecast for Mount Rainier in WA. Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 32 to 38 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Windy, with a west southwest wind 32 to 38 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. Windy, with a southwest wind around 47 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 20. Windy, with a southwest wind 24 to 34 mph increasing to 38 to 48 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers. High near 22. Windy, with a west southwest wind 43 to 48 mph decreasing to 36 to 41 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 2. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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